Profitable Triggers

[Mat]

Hi mfp users,

Many of us here like to try different strategies and experiment with triggers. Most triggers gives probably no profit in the long run, but probably there are some that are profitable. It would be interesting to see which markets having the most profitables one and providing inspitation to all of us.

Any profit greater than zero would be interesting! and giving the profit as a Yield is a good way to measure gains. Where Yield can be defined as profit/(risked amount). How many bets and what kind of stakeing plan (flat bet, recovery, martingale etc.)

Example
soccer market: 8 % Yield  400 bets (flat bet)

[mcbee]

hi
confused i am.
today my total stakes was 321
my total profit 184
bets 52
so is this 57% or .57%
greyhounds and i use my own staking plan, nothing like any other plan.
i use the old fashion way, i made 46 points, an average day.

mcbee

[Mat]

hi

That's a really good yield of 57 %, I guess it will be hard to maintain such a high yield - it will be intresting to follow that trigger.

What do you mean by "old fashion way" ?

[mcbee]

hi
points, whatever your stake is, it is a point.
so 1 point=1 pound or 1 euro or 10 pounds etc.
i make my profit(increase the bank) with level stakes, but at certain times, if the current bank is less than the recorded max bank, my trigger will stop level stakes and start a recovery plan to maintain my max bank only, then return to level stakes.
on the odd day i will end without profit or a current bank that is less than the max bank, but the trigger starts the next day knowing that the max bank needs maintaining at the correct time.

mcbee

[Mat]

It's nice to see you're back at betfair mcbee and you do have a monster yield.

I have a trigger myself (only one) that I really believe in it's around 8 % yield (soccer), but in theory it would be around 12 % - only time will tell.

[SMF]

Perhaps an idea to setup closed groups so people can discuss their triggers more freely and develop with a small group a set of triggers. Kind of similar what they did/do at winholdem/openholdem (pokerbot).

If a profitable trigger/strategy is thrown in the open it will soon not be profitable anymore, but if only 5/6 people use it is should remain profitable.

Now I don't believe too much in just loading the markets every day, run a trigger and generate money, though v7 should be a big improvement for soccer markets. Really, I don't want any bet on some 2nd league Hong Kong match  .
MFpro really helps me with a correct staking plan, in which I fail miserable manually.

I've been trying horses (which I know nothing about) again the last two weeks and am exactly even (commission included). Guess the odds are always right  , though its a big improvement from my last attempt a while ago. Going through the data to see if there're some improvements to make. An offline "replay tool" like xfeeder has would be great...

[mcbee]

hi
it is a good idea for markets with plenty of money traded, but for greyhounds, i have the odd unmatched bet now, so just one more person would make it more unmatched bets and then it becomes unprofitable, one unmatched/part matched bet at the wrong time can cause a bank wipeout.

mcbee

[1oser]

Everyone should be able to make a trigger that makes money.

The problem with most people is lack of patience in properly testing their trigger.

[Mat]

My opinion is that it's much harder than one might think, to actually make a profit, due to several factors.

- the market is usually analyzed
- there are opportunities but usually small marginals
- lack of patience to evaluate
- low liquid markets
- The model (implemented in a trigger) do not work in long term

[Mat]

mcbee,

in your greyhound trigger do you have lay bets, if so the risk is (odds-1)*betamount, it will in that case affect the yield.

[Mat]

SMF,
I agree with you, but you can extract information from market - if you asume it's "correct" analyzed. I reason like that anyway.

Now I don't believe too much in just loading the markets every day, run a trigger and generate money,  

[mcbee]

hi
i only back bet with the greyhounds.

mcbee

[1oser]

All I am willing to say is that, it is possible to create a profitable trigger.

I now have two, triggers running on separate markets making a steady profit every month for the last 3 months.

It should be 9 months, as the one trigger  have had since last year, but lack of discipline has seen me let loose a trigger with potential and almost wipe out my bank again!

I wiped out a bank of $5000 before when trying to maximize profit from stable trigger 1. I went out and could not check progress one of the days and bank went from just over $5000 to $400. This might not be a lot for some, but for me it's small fortune.

I manage to rustle up some funds after a couple of months, but a 3rd trigger i had let loose again cut a $5000 bank in half, before i came to my sense and stuck with just two boring triggers. After 3 months of solid gains I have been able to draw some funds out for the last 2 months and the bank has pretty much recovered.

I am willing to help and try get a profitable trigger going, but I cannot share my existing triggers as I am also just struggling like everyone else. Don't ask, I will not part with the trigger for less then $1 Million as I know they can make that much in maybe 10-20 years, also depending on your capital.

If anyone has an angle or idea to explore I am all in. One of my strengths is data analysis as I have a fairly analytical mind.

[mcbee]

hi
you will find all systems are good, from a system that has only 9% strike rate to 90% strike rate.
the only problem is us the users, we do not set the correct bank/stake ratio.
if your stake is the correct percentage of the bank, then the system will not fail.
we say it fails because it wipes our bank out.
but it was our setting that failed.
and how many times have we found a good system, just to ruin it by going for more that our bank can take.
my system had 24 losses in a row yesterday (my worst day upto now), but because i have set my bank/stake ratio correctly, it never bothered me or my bank, and went on to make a profit.


mcbee

[1oser]

I totally agree McBee!

Let greed be your enemy and fear your friend.

No matter how successful the system has been in the past .. always be cautious.