Race-Courses and 1.01

[DarkHorse]

Can someone please tell me what horse Race-Courses result in a definite winner when a horse reaches 1.01? I have found that some horses lose when it reaches 1.01and then another horse ends up at 1.01 in betfair, this should not be because as I see it when a horse reaches 1.01 it has won, this tells me that there are Race-Courses  that make the horse seem as if it has won but it has not.

A list of courses that produce a clean finishes would be much appreciated.
Thanks in advance

[mcbee]

hi
this could be betfairs supper bot in action, i have noticed that all but the winner go to 1000.00 odds then drop back to the prev odds, so as to catch us out that bet below the limit, because you have a 2€ bet at 1000.00 odds then your lower odds to bet on, and the reverse with lay betting you lay 2€ at 1.01 then your other amount at the odds you set, so it matches your 1.01 at 2€ and your set odds doesn't get matched.


mcbee

[bamthwok]

Hi Dark Horse,

If a price drops to 1.01 it does not mean that the respective runner has won the race. It still has an implied chance of 1% of losing the race.

You can go to

 http://form.horseracing.betfair.com/timeform

If you go to results you can back check lowest Betfair prices during in running.

Cheers,
bamthwok

[1oser]

I doubt there is any one course that will be more favorable then others, but maybe you might want to avoid those with an uphill finish. Horses coming off the pace might be more likely to win!?!? my perception

With that said there were a couple of 1.01 that lost the other day (last weekend 21-22) I can't remember their names, I just remember the betfair forum was buzzing about 2-3 in as many races.

1.01 does not mean the horse has won as stated above ... this also depends on the market support so be careful. If there are no layers a horse might go to 1.01 too soon. I have noticed that the price of favs tends to crash much faster then other runners because of perception .. but also because maybe not a lot of people leave low odds on the fav .. I don't know.  I would also be interested to know who is winning .. the 1.01 backers or the layers??

You can do a search for gubbed http://www.google.com/search?q=gubbed+betfair . I think the first site gubbed.com (can't access from work) has some information albeit a little outdated.

[DarkHorse]

Hi 1oser and thanks for the link and your reply.

I am at the moment making my money on the lay odds that are left behind or pop back in when a horse reaches odds of 1.01, I only look for certain odds as the exposure is quite high, there is of course a problem of getting matched as the lay odds generally disappear at when a horse reaches 1.01.

I am making a good living from this but wanted to eliminate the risks by also eliminating optical illusion 1.01 odds that seem to happen on poor visibility race courses or hilly race courses as you mention and what I have been told from other sources, that is why I wanted a list of courses that are relatively straight.

I have only been bitten once at 1.01 so far and that cost me £150, I make on average between £50 and £120 on a good day. 

[1oser]

Well done.

You can't win all the time so I guess you will have to either take the good and the bad.

I am sure on the racing post site you will be able to find the courses with uphill finishes, and maybe you will need to keep an eye on the forecast as well.

No sure when the weather will change ..but I would think it would be right around now as UK winter closes in, so be careful and all the best.

[DarkHorse]

1oser do you think the weather would make a big difference or just minimal?

[1oser]

I have absolutely no idea how big a factor it will be .. but I remember the one year at Great Leighs (i think) it was horrible.  You would lose the runners in the far turn and they would pop up a half a furlong from the finish. It was interesting.

[studio69]

Hi Darkhorse,

I seems we are doing similar ideas, do you mind me asking what kind of stake you are using?

[DarkHorse]

Hi studio69  no not at all, I am using a £20 stake making £19.50 after commision

[mcbee]

hi
when you say 1.01, is that backing or laying price, i have been testing with if fav = lay 1.01 then lay any within 20.00. and the results are very good.


mcbee

[DarkHorse]

Yes mcbee I am laying between 20 and 30 the only problem with this is getting matched and if it goes in reverse your bank is mashed, but you nee to know when to stop, I stop when I get to £100 that is roughly 5 wins if I get enough matched.

[mcbee]

hi
when you said you got bitten once, what happend did the winner reverse or did it just switch from one to the other.


mcbee

[DarkHorse]

Hi

I got matched at I think 8.5 but thats when I was laying between 5 and 20 r_1 was at 1.01 and went up to 1.04 then the horse that I lay on went to 1.01 in a flash

[betfair winner]

Hi Darkhorse
This is facinating stuff, because i tried many combinations of this kind of bet and it worked quite well in test but crashed and burned in live.
Just to give me an idea of how far along you are; do you keep a record of the number of bets you have had? and if so, how many bets had you had before you got your first sting, and how many bets have had in all now?
Thanks for the intersting posting.