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BetFair bots community -- October 22, 2014, 06:25
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Author Topic: BETFAIR ARE LYING TO US IN HILO GAMES. WE SHOULD DO SOMETHING ABOUT THAT  (Read 3561 times)
patrickjo2001
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« on: November 24, 2012, 17:55 »

Hi, all
My name is Jim Patrick, actually i have been testing all triggers but none seems to whistand an account of $100.
What i know from now is that HiLo is a game of probability.
what is the probability of CARD 1 to win having the odds of BACK =1.29 and for LAY =1.31, so the probability to win is = 1/1.29 we have P=0.77519 or simply Pw =0.7752 and the probability to lose is Pl=1-0.7752=0.2248
in summary for CARD 1 or Further : Pw=0.7752 and Pl=0.2248
For the game Hilo to respect this probability there is question we have to ask to ourself, how can we bring the probability of winning to 0 or the probability of lose to 0. the only way is by multiplying each event by the probability so we will have
on this Pattern: WWW
Pw=0.7752*0.7752*0.7752=0.465844843008
for the pattern of : WWWWWWWWWW
Pw=(0.7752)^10=0.078367797
we can see how our probability goes towards 0 and if our probability goes towards 0 therefor we will have a sure lost in the next game.
the question is how many consecutive events should i have for card 1 or further to be 0,
actually the probability can never be 0 but tend to 0.
Betfair says that if and event has the odd of 1000 therefore this event will never occur again which automatically imply a probability of Pn=1/1000= 0.001
BUT THIS IS NOT TRUE, Betfair are just lying to us what they use it is not that.
as example:
if the probability of the event that cannot occur any more is 0.001 we are sure that the next event will be a winner, we can now calculate how many consecutive WINS or LOST we should have for that event to occur.

FOR CARD 1 OR FURTHER
Pw1=0.7752 and Pl1=0.2248
how many consecutive win we should have for card 1 or further to have the odd of 1000 or the probability of 0.001
N=log10(0.001)/log10(0.7752) =27.12 there we have 27 consecutive events for card 1 to turn into the odd of 1000. it means that the 28th game CARD 1 or further will LOSE no matter its ODD.
Actually BETFAIR ARE LYING TO US, 1000 IS NOT THE ODD FOR EVENT NOT TO OCCUR.
if you look at the record of 11/08/2012 at 04:20 till 11/08/2012 at 06:01 Card 1 or further won 36 times.
which correspond to the ODD of 9550 close to 10000.
with this ODD of 10000 lets calculate the event for CARD 2 or Further.
Pw2=1/1.73=0.578, hence we have
N=log10(0.0001)/log10(0.578)=16.8 almost 17 but actually there are events of cards 2 that go up to 18, I repeat BETFAIR are not respecting there starting rules.
For CARD 3 or Further it goes up to 14 consecutive wins.

Playing with this probability you will see that by betting for a long term you’ll always come to lose you will never win, which make all strategies to fail no matter how you design them.
For more info i will be available to respond also.

Jim Patrick
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Tim (WellDoneSoft)
Tim Vetrov
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WWW
« Reply #1 on: November 24, 2012, 20:59 »

You can't add or multiply probabilities from different games as they are not linked (related)
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MarkV
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« Reply #2 on: November 24, 2012, 23:30 »

Hi
Although I don’t trade in Exchange Games, I have a few questions:
Have you taken into account in your calculations the three per cent commission on winnings in this market?
 
As you say, long term you cannot win by backing, therefore, do you think you might be able to win by laying?

You mention probabilities of 0.001, I was wondering why do bookmakers offer these sort of odds, for example in the last minute of a football game, and the same on the other side of the book, although with a big spread e.g. 750 against?

As the last post indicates, if heads has come up six times in a row, is the probability of tails exactly the same as before or in the middle or at the end of the sequence?
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rubold
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« Reply #3 on: November 25, 2012, 09:35 »

There is no point in looking at combining all those odds/probabilities, all you need to know as Mark said. is that 3% commission is deducted from any winnings and odds to back and lay are not best value due to the spread.   

Also the tick points have been increased on all the games in the last few months, so for example in Holdem R1 all hands used to be 3.98 to back and 4.02 to lay, they are now 3.95 to back and 4.05 to lay.  It was extremely difficult to make any profit in the past, but it is now impossible!!

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