Mathematical approach to x-games

[Professor]

Dear friends

The last two weeks have I studied the x-gamed on Betfair. I have been testing, looking in my old math books, more testing, and at last thinking ....

My conclusion is:

Bet only on x-games for fun and recreation. Not for making easy money. You will loose in the long run. But there is hope.

Using betfair and x-feeder in kombination (or any other bot) is, if betfair did not take a commisssion, a zoro game: in the long run, no loosers - on winners. But because betfair DO take a commission you will loose in the long run. NO MATTER which Strategy you use!  (Perhaps not playing Black Jack - I am not sure yet).

Why? Because all the odds are calculatet by bots, using combinatorics and statistic. All the odds ARE correct. High odds - low probability. Low odds - high probability. You can use Greening, Spread loss or distribute loss, or any kind of triggers. All you will achieve maximum is to prolongs when the final economic collapse will come. But untill then, we all did have had at good time dreaming of easy prosperity. Nothing wrong with it.

If you really want to have a good time AND have an opportunity earning money, bet on something where the odds is NOT correct. In games on horses, dogs, football and so on.

I am sorry to say this, but this is the truth, based on scientific facts. And I am sorry to ruin your dreams.

But keep on dreaming ...

Sorry (again) for my poor English skill.

Regards
 

[betfair winner]

Without doubt this is the most important contribution I have seen on the forum for a while.
Why on earth people spend hours trying to gain an edge on the games when the maths are clearly not in your favour is a mystery to me. However I would love to be proved a complete idiot, as I am sure would the proffesor!
 
But i believe the professor is correct in that unless you can get the maths correct and back at prices that are statistically higher that the probability or lay at prices lower that the probability the result (with the 5% commission) is regrettably inevitable.
It is the same with the tipsters, they will punt a horse with giving a minimum price to back it at and this is completely useless. Everything has a value and no tipster will be correct 100% of the time therefore he must make a judgement on what the minimum price must be in order to make a profit in the longer term on each and EVERY selection.
Good luck Proffesor on the sporting events and may all your trades be value trades.

 

[washorasta]

your logic is good, but to betfair distribute the money between player.

the hand should not be looked at but to observe the settings of all the players and to bet.