Untold riches await !!!

[betfair winner]

Untold riches await! 
Having just trawled through thousands of results from betfair, and acquired a few days ago this amazing software I am preparing myself for being able to free myself from my mortgage!
Having tried and failed to trigger the correct formula
Any help would be appreciated ……………..
I need to lay any selection in running in a handicap race that drifts to double the price it was at the off.
28859 of these horses with a bsp of 20 or less  produced 1259 winners with a a total lay cost (assuming that the lay price taken was double the sp) of 18500
12175 of these horses with a bsp of 20 or more  produced 122 winners with a  total lay cost (assuming that the lay price taken was double the sp) of 8260

I need to lay any selection in running in a handicap race that drifts to double the price it was at the off, preferably after the first 30 seconds has been run.

Anyone that can write this trigger can share in our fortune!
your help is much appreciated

[bampot]

 Do well to get an edge over the fast pic boys , lots of the prices might be well
 gone by the time bets are fired in , specially over the jumps fallers etc
 
 I think a lot of those figures you quote might differ from actually getting on
 
 Good Luck anyway , maybe the figures could be tweaked with the right trigger

[alfaman]

High betfair loser,

Be careful what you wish for !

This might do the job if I have understood you correctly.  Set your maximum lay price in the price cell where it currently says 30.  It is set to lay at 30 to take either the current lay price if better, or max lay price of 30 to try to ensure you catch a price.  I have no idea of the liquidity at these moments.

It is currently set it to 30 so you don't lay at 200 and lose the bank.

It is set so that you must be at least odds of 4 greater than the favourite so you know another horse is winning.

Also th eback price should not have risen by more than 2 over the last 2 seconds(0.03 minutes) to protect against laying in response to unreal peaks in the back price.

If anyone wishes to comment or improve it feel free.

WARNING - This is untested and not guaranteedin any way, I agree with Bampot's comments above. RUN IN TEST MODE TO TRIAL IT.   Good luck if you decide to use it and I'll have 10% of your untold fortune please   .

Ian

PS: I suggest you set the refresh rate in play to as low as it will go ie 0.3 secs and limit the monitoring of any other market (ie those not in play) to say zero or 1 minute before the off so that you give your system/internet the best chance of catching rapidly changing odds.  Also, if you lay at 30 and miss the window of opportunity that bet will remain unmatched and if the selelction's odds later drop so, let's say, it becomes the favourite, your unmatched bet may then get matched and you then lay the winner just as its about to win -very annoying and expensive.   I have another trigger that cancels all unmatched in play bets after 3 seconds to avoid this.

[Oxa (WellDoneSoft)]

I've just added a trigger example that I tested yesterday:

http://www.marketfeederpro.com/solutions/trigger-example/lay-on-losers/lay-drifters-handicap/

It may be of some interest to both the author of the topic and alfaman.

[betfair winner]

This is BRILLIANT Oxa  It could be another false dawn but 40000 results cant be wrong .......can they?

Thank you so much for taking the time to set this trigger up, i have spent the last three days and nights studying all the help files and variables and now i can see the trigger set up correctly it looks quite straight forward.

I have to say that this software is astonishingly brilliant; but i wonder how many other averagely intelligent people are struggling to get to grips with the genius of this program. I don’t see how you could ever improve what you have here whilst trying to make it more user friendly for your average Joe.

For your interest re the high priced selections. over the past year 2906 horses have gone off in non hcap races with a Bsp of 100 or more, and where there price more than doubled during the race. Of these horses only 3 went on to eventually win.
therefore blanket laying of all these selections allowing for the 3 losing lays and assuming that the lays were matched at just over double sp would have produced at minimum stakes after commission £4098 not bad!

Thanks so much for your help, I may wait a week or so before using my own cash though!   

[Maurizio CT]

The problem in this kind of strategy of laying a straight is always the high odds.how many times will come the loss and how long does it take to recover? Let's hope so, I too have a mortgage to be welded  . Let me know how to proceed
Today afternoon i initial testing be added in the trigger the modify "lay price <= 30"
Maurizio

[alfaman]

Hi Betfair Loser (it seems wrong to call you that),

By the way,  I forgot to say, when testing these triggers, either Oxa's or mine, don't forget that unless you apply an enforced delay in betfair response on the "Test" tab of settings, you will get a false impression because testing will assume all get matched whereas in reality you may miss a good few due to the rapidly changing odds.

I suggest at least 0.5 seconds delay - others may have a different opinion ?

Ian

PS: The trigger to cancel unmatched bets after 3 seconds in play is attached - I believe this works!

[betfair winner]

Hi Ian
Many thanks again for you comments and putting this trigger together, and the cancel after 3 seconds tweak i am sure will be a good insurance!

However early indications would suggest that not enough selections are being matched in the race, and the ones that are getting matched are too big relative to the sp and the drift in price. In the 20.50 at Kempton for example there was 9 attempted lays with none being matched on my own test. I increased your price from 30 to 100 to compensate but still did not catch them.
 
Perhaps the trailing stop on all selections at double sp could help?
 
Clearly with the potential profit from results from the 50000 events dependant on qualifying selections being matched, we need to find a way of catching the ones moving out more quickly.

In order to get a more realistic feel I set my test delay to 2 seconds but maybe this is too big?

We could set the trigger lower at 1.5 times the sp price as getting matched at 1.6 times the sp would still give on our sample a profit of over 12000 points!

44148 samples drifting to 1.5 or bigger, produced 2031 horses going on to win the race despite drifting in running. Total liability 31952 points this would still give a profit of 12196 points before commission (over 25%)

Any suggestions on how to tweak the trigger to catch more drifters welcomed

Anyway It was fun watching the trigger work their magic but judging by today's experience I may put off ordering the Jag for a couple more weeks.

Kind regards Andy 

[Maurizio CT]

Yesterday for the first time I used the trigger in a real mode with a stake of € 1.50. Everything it's ok!!!  . The average odds matched was around min @10,00 max @ 22,00.Hopefully today well.The setting my trigger:
1)Refresh time of In-Play 0.30sec.
2)Lay Price odds <=30.
Maurizio.

[bluecap]

Hi I won’t pretend I am any expert on doing triggers as I am pretty rubbish but I can see a flaw in this one unless I missed something.  Many a time usually in evening racing I have seen say the second favourite lay odds spiral to 20+ and just as quick back down again without the back odds particularly changing and the horse go on to win, would the trigger not pick up on that and lay it?

Would it not be possible to add an option where the back odds are no lower than a certain percentage of the lay odds, say 16% or whatever the average is?

[Oxa (WellDoneSoft)]

Would it not be possible to add an option where the back odds are no lower than a certain percentage of the lay odds, say 16% or whatever the average is?

This is a very good point, I have added this condition to the trigger example.

[betfair winner]

Amazing day yesterday! 
using the slightly tweaked version of Ians, we triggered a total of 52 matched bets yesterday ranging from 5.9 up. Of these only 1 bet lost at 11 giving a nett profit after commision (in test mode) of £75.
Still missing loads of rapid drifters though, usually in the last furlong as the prices collapse.
I am going to run both triggers today and see how they compare. More soon .........

[Maurizio CT]

I tested for 3 days but with 3 losses have been loss of profit. 
The problem is the odds  by layed are high and we need a good staking plan, but I'm undecided which one to use.
Maurizio.

[Oxa (WellDoneSoft)]

Maurizio, try some of the staking plans listed in "Trigger Examples".

Unfortunately there are no strategies guaranteeing profit, and I warned about high odds when I was making this trigger example.

[betfair winner]

Yes Maurizio
The trigger is only picking massive drifters and at much bigger prices relative to the back price, many no hopers toward the end of the races are not getting triggered at all, and if they are they are, they are not getting matched.
In order for the system to work the trigger must reliably reflect the statistics reasonably well, and trigger all the no hopers and GET THEM MATCHED.

Sadly after a good initial day, it is clear that in the longer term since the triggers is not able to duplicate the scenario as per the statistics this approach is fraught with danger.  this trigger will need some serious tweaking in order to get the correct bets matched to prevent the occasional big priced drifter going on to win. Could this be another false Dawn.......HHHHMMMMMM.......