Author Topic: Free Profitable Trigger  (Read 4109 times)

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Free Profitable Trigger
« on: Thu, 19 May, 2011, 10:59 »
Have been playing around with MFP for about 6 months now and yet to find a profitable trigger. In-play markets move to fast to get the prices you need and trying to green-up before the race goes in-play is pot luck on getting the market moving the correct way.
The only way to profit at racing is to get value on the bets you place so that over time you make a level stake profit.
This is how i currently do that.
5 mins before the start of a race i check the Racing post website cards to see what the betting forecast for that race was. If i can find a horse that has shortened in price buy at least 30% then i will lay it on Betfair. I choose the shortest price horse i can find to keep liability down.

If the horse was 9/1 on the forecast and you could lay it at 4/1 on betfair then for every 10 horses you laid at 10 only 1 should win and you would only pay out 5 on betfair. That’s where you get the value.
The prices can shorten quiet a lot through the day due to money being backed on that selection. A lot of money going on the same horse does not mean it stands a better chance of winning, If it was 10 in the morning than that should be near its true chance of winning the race and if you can lay it under 10 then you should over time make a profit. I use this system manually at the moment and have made a profit each month. You will get some bad days when all the selections seem to win but over all its profitable.

Not sure if it can be turned in to a trigger and if anybody wants to try then please upload it for everyone to share.
To work as a trigger i think it would have to monitor the prices for about the last 4 hours and lay the first selection that has dropped by 30% or more.

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Re: Free Profitable Trigger
« Reply #1 on: Thu, 19 May, 2011, 21:13 »
Two things concern me :

(i) the Racing Post forecast price is just an opinion of the guy who made it, it does not reflect actual money placed on horses,

(ii) if the price of a horse shortens it normally indicates that there is an increased probability of it winning. People put money on it because they think it will win. What makes you wish to lay these horses ?

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Re: Free Profitable Trigger
« Reply #2 on: Thu, 19 May, 2011, 22:53 »
Just to bring this discussion into focus and to put a few numbers on the scenario suggested, I can reveal detailed statistics on your proposal.

Firstly overall where the racing post forecast was 10/1 or less, and where the Betfair starting price was at least  30% less than the forecast price.

The results since my records began in may 2010 are as follows……………

3892 LAY bets at £1,  have produced 2829 winners this produced a WIN to £1 level stakes of £137 BEFORE COMMISSION. After commission of £140 the result is a loss of loss of £3. So on the face it your approach does have some merit. However the sentiment behind these selections being backed down to lower prices is clearly allied to their statistical probability of the win and therefore this approach will not make any money in the longer term.

The only way is to beat the book, not work with the book. If a selection is 30% 40% 50% or 80% less than the post fc the result is the same. The book will still be around 101% at "the off" and hey presto you will lose on this approach, because the perceived extra value of the lay is a false perception in this case.

To demonstrate this, taking the post fc at 10.1 or less and only laying selections that are half or less than that fc price produced 636 £1 lay bets, losing £51 before commission and another £44 going in commission, makes a total loss of £95 using this approach. This is actually worse despite the amazing “apparent” value of the lay.

Make no mistake the sentiment behind the selection is nearly always reflected in the starting price. Unless the selection is overlooked for some reason, (an outsider) or there are other factors which make a selection exceptional good or bad value.

The results are similar in hcap from non hcap races, giving a loss on either approach.
Sorry to burst your bubble on this but you cant argue with the stats!!
This time next year, we will all be paying Betfair premium charge commission rates!

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Re: Free Profitable Trigger
« Reply #3 on: Fri, 20 May, 2011, 08:15 »
Thanks for your detailed input and stats. Where do you get your stats from as i could not find information on price drops on any site.
If a horse has 20K bet on it it does not affect its chance of winning the race it just means a lot of people think it has a better chance. Have been doing this manually for 3 months and have made a profit each month so far. Maybe i have been lucky so far.

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Re: Free Profitable Trigger
« Reply #4 on: Fri, 20 May, 2011, 12:42 »
The stats have been painstakingly collated daily using a test platform with MF PRO . 2 years of doing this religiously day in and day out, has resulted in a very useful compilation of results giving all the Racing post fcs, as well as the Betfair forecast, the Betfair SP and the number of runners in the race. From these stats it is easy to reference the type of bets you are suggesting. Number of hours work involved in producing these stats must be in the thousands!

How many bets have you placed so far? ::)

From my experience around 2000 bets are the minimum number required to make a balanced judgment in respect of the probable longer term profit /loss scenario.  1000 bets or less has to be treated with extreme caution before making any judgment regarding profitability.

Let me know if you need more analysis and I will be happy to help you.  ;D
This time next year, we will all be paying Betfair premium charge commission rates!

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Re: Free Profitable Trigger
« Reply #5 on: Sat, 21 May, 2011, 14:57 »
If a horse has 20K bet on it it does not affect its chance of winning the race it just means a lot of people think it has a better chance.


It doesn't mean that the horse will win but it will affect the market significantly. As traders we have to have regard to all factors which cause the market to change and one of the most important causes of change is other people's bets. Money talks.