Author Topic: Reduction Factors / Withdrawn Runners  (Read 2148 times)

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Reduction Factors / Withdrawn Runners
« on: Sat, 10 October, 2009, 09:17 »
Can someone please tell me if I have this right?

I am trading horses before the off.  If I lay one in test mode and suddenly the market is suspended, a runner is withdrawn, and the suspension ends, will the back price be a set percentage down on its value prior to the suspension?

In test mode the lay price of the matched bet won't be adjusted so I will have to close the trade to make a loss.

If this were in live, would the lay price of the matched bet reduce by the same factor as the back, so that if I was in a green-up position prior to the suspension I will still be "green" afterwards ?

Thanks in anticipation

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Re: Reduction Factors / Withdrawn Runners
« Reply #1 on: Mon, 12 October, 2009, 19:52 »
Can someone please tell me if I have this right?

I am trading horses before the off.  If I lay one in test mode and suddenly the market is suspended, a runner is withdrawn, and the suspension ends, will the back price be a set percentage down on its value prior to the suspension? Nope
In test mode the lay price of the matched bet won't be adjusted so I will have to close the trade to make a loss.

If this were in live, would the lay price of the matched bet reduce by the same factor as the back, so that if I was in a green-up position prior to the suspension I will still be "green" afterwards ? I say 75% chance of being red
Thanks in anticipation

 If you look in the Betfair Forum- Markets ---Reducton Factor  Monday 12th October
 They pre-determine the factor , much like the pc charge I'm not sure anyone understands it  :-\
 
 I seem to be on the wrong end of a reduction most times eg Ive gained the odd time
 but mostly lose out when a non-runner is declared
 Im pretty convinced certain people with prior knowledge to the withdrawal do manipulate
 the market in there favour 

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Re: Reduction Factors / Withdrawn Runners
« Reply #2 on: Tue, 13 October, 2009, 04:50 »
The pre determined reduction factors are an absolute nightmare for lay bets.

In test mode, some 12 months ago I had a trigger where I layed the 4th, 5th & 6th favourites (based on statistical probabilities), and it was working OK until the first three favourites were late withdrawals in one particular race. I was therefore left with laying the first three favourites. The revised Betfair market had the favourite at $4.00, but the pre- determined reduction factors left me with laying the favourite at $11.00 would you believe! Of course, the favourite won.

For a sizeable punter, this would have been a financial disaster. As it stood, I had a lengthy (email) discussion with Betfair to no avail. They indicated that late withdrawals do lead to market manipulation, and there was no chance they would change their existing position.

So lay punters should beware that reduction factors can lead to disastrous results.