Author Topic: The "Kelly" staking plan  (Read 15242 times)

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #15 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 12:42 »
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #16 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 13:51 »
Brilliant Oxa
Mant thanks for this. I cant wait to fire it up!
This time next year, we will all be paying Betfair premium charge commission rates!

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #17 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 17:07 »
Hello

Thanks Oxa for this great trigger.

I was wondering on what markets should we use it for the best resulsts ?

Today i tested it on much greyhounds races and while laying the second favorite i had like 6 losses for 4 wins..
So apparently it makes me wonder if the 2nd aren't over priced?

Thanks

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #18 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 18:33 »
Hi Fedrer,

I believe the Kelly plan could be applied to all one-winner market, but you need to base it on a long history of bets.

I think you might have just downloaded the trigger file from the web site and ran it in MF Pro without major changes, did you? Whereas you should have watched the markets where you placed bets previously and figured out the strike rate and initial average odds. This may take you a day or more, the more data you analyse, the better will be the results.

Perhaps other forum participants will add their own opinions.
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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #19 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 18:50 »
Hi Fedrer

The market you choose is very much secondary to the statistical probability based on your results from test bets.

If you have around 500 bets as a sample making a level stakes profit to 1 point, that would be the minimum i would consider before testing the plan further with the trigger. 

For myself i would always attempt to collect at least 2000 test bets from any particular strategy before thinking about going in live play.

The Kelly plan works very well as long as you have a definite "edge" it could be as low as 1% but no loss recoupment plan including the Kelly will substitute a poor strategy, with poor returns. 

By the time you have paid the 5% commission to Betfair you need to be making another 5% to make it worthwhile.

I would find your most likely long term strategies, then test them for three months with the triggers keeping all the results on excel for analysis. Remember what you are looking for is a trigger that generates either HEAVY losses or a modest profit since any trigger generating heavy losses could be considered for the opposite strategy that you initially applied. In other words a badly losing back trigger could work as a lay trigger.

But be careful because of the spread; you need to take that into consideration.
 
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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #20 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 21:08 »
Thank you alot Oxa and betfair winner for your replies! It helps me alot.
In fact i didn't tried the trigger like it was initially , but i obviously didn't have such a good history for choosing the right values to set.

I'll take all that you both said into consideration, and i'll proabably do a long period test.

Btw i thought that i registered with the name Federer.. nevermind

Thank you one more time everybody for your disponibility and kindness, that's one of the reason why i'll buy the program for pretty sure.

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #21 on: Tue, 20 April, 2010, 23:49 »
Hi Fedrer,

I believe the Kelly plan could be applied to all one-winner market, but you need to base it on a long history of bets.

.....

Perhaps other forum participants will add their own opinions.

IMHO Kelly plan is an "add on" for a existing strategy. If you have a winning strategy, Kelly gives you the best long term profit and sqeezes the highest possible long term profit out from your bets. But you will need some time to analyse your history of bets. You must not mix results from different strategies and you must calculate average odds and strike rate for every strategy seperately and add a customized Kelly plan to every trigger file.

To keep things simple, use only one winner markets, podium markets or multi winner markets require a more sophisticated approach to calulate average odds and strike rate. I wonder if there are enough podium or multi winner markets to get a long history of bets.


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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #22 on: Thu, 22 April, 2010, 09:12 »
I am testing the Kelly Plan the last days and i must say from all the staking plans i have tried this one might be my favourite. It works really clever and make safe steps upwards and when it comes to losing streak it can protect your bank to avoid loosing a lot of money. Excellent staking plan

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Re: The "Kelly" staking plan
« Reply #23 on: Sun, 25 April, 2010, 17:53 »
Oxa.Come posso fare per aggiungere il comando che il trigger deve attivarsi solamente quanto è stato definito con "esposizione= € 0" ?
Grazie.
Oxa.Come do I add the command that the trigger should activate only what has been defined as "exposure = € 0"?
Thank you.