Author Topic: Universal Loss Recoupment trigger  (Read 2467 times)

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Universal Loss Recoupment trigger
« on: Tue, 17 November, 2009, 15:29 »
Hi People,

Im trying to use the universal loss recoupment trigger to lay certain selections and recoup loss + initial stake win after each loss in the next race.

im using the example from the trigger help, but it seems to not recoup properly for me and places what seems like random bets after losses. Does anyone have a working example i could use to modify for my own use as no matter what i try i cant seem to get this to work ?

Thanks very much for all your help

Matt

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Re: Universal Loss Recoupment trigger
« Reply #1 on: Tue, 17 November, 2009, 19:41 »
Matt, can you specify what you mean by random bets? More details would help as well, i.e. in what mode (test or real money) you use it, do you settle the markets where you place bets etc.

This trigger has been tested thoroughly, so it should work.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Universal Loss Recoupment trigger
« Reply #2 on: Tue, 17 November, 2009, 22:52 »
Matt,

if you use universal loss recoupment trigger, the stake after a loss is calculated by liability of the losing bet.

If default amount is 10, and you lose a single lay bet at 1.31, the stake for the next bet is
10 + 10*(1.31-1) = 13.1

If default amount is 10, and you lose a single lay bet at 25, the stake for the next bet is
10 + 10*(25-1) = 250

If you lose 2 lay bets, first at 1.31 and second at 25, the stake for third bet is:

10 + (10 + 10*(1.31-1))*(25-1) = 324.4



But this loss recoupment trigger is only an example. You need to add additional features to this trigger to earn money. The key to success is a strategy which has a positive expected value in every bet. This does not mean that you win every bet, buy in the long run you will be in profit, if the expected profit of a bet is more than 1.05 times your stake. (if commission is 5%)

Unfortunately loss recoupment does not change a expected value of a series of bets into positive if the E.V. of a single bet is negative.

Find a good betting strategy, and you will not need loss recoupment. And if betting strategy is not good, loss recoupment seems to work fine and make profits in the beginning, but it will blow your bank one time.

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Re: Universal Loss Recoupment trigger
« Reply #3 on: Tue, 17 November, 2009, 23:14 »
Thanks for your reply Martin.

This is exactly what i want to happen (the staking you have mentioned, albeit i lay at low odds) but it does not seem to want to work.

I will put a set_limit stop loss in my trigger also which will keep losses to a minimum, once ive sorted out the basic recoup.
 I have been through years of results from BFSP site, and if i can get the trigger to work with my max bet size (which will reset losses and stake back to zero once this has been reached) i should be in good profit.

Oxa - i attached my account statement ..  you can see from bets between 15:19 and 15:47 for example that i have losses, which are not recouped and then a big bet of over £22 ?  This happens elsewhere throughout the day.
Im currently running this in test mode with 'Download results from betfair' and 'settle finsihed markets automatically' checked on ... is this correct ?

I appreciate your help with this guys ... thanks alot

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Re: Universal Loss Recoupment trigger
« Reply #4 on: Thu, 19 November, 2009, 23:09 »
Strange. Did you enter manual bets via www.betfair.com? Is is possible that MFP gets confused with manual bets and tries to recoup your manual bets with the trigger, too?