Author Topic: Tennis trigger  (Read 2358 times)

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Tennis trigger
« on: 04 Feb 2020, 23:31 »
Could I request a trigger please.

Tennis is unfamiliar territory for me, but nevertheless, the recent Australian Open showed some interesting patterns.

My trigger request:

On a set by set basis, I want to back the player who is leading by one game, and who won the last game to lead by exactly two games.

There will need to be a minimum price (say $1.10), but that needs to be adjustable.

Minimum volume can be a variable also, if thought necessary.

Example:

Set 1
Score 1-0 no bet
Score 2-0 back player 1
Score 2-1 no bet
Score 2-2 no bet
Score 2-3 no bet
Score 2-4 back player 2
Score 2-5 no bet
Score 3-5 no bet
Score 3-6 no bet set complete

Commence the same process again for Set 2.

There will be several occasions when both players are backed, but sometimes the price differentials make this a profitable result either way. In the main, profits will be small, with the occasional windfall (or disaster!).

I do not have any long term stats to know if this strategy will be successful, but would like to try it, and I have no doubt some further tweaking will be necessary.

Thanks,

bobh


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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #1 on: 25 Feb 2020, 21:02 »
Hello!

Please see the triggers attached. Please note they will only work in markets where the score is available.

Use the constants to adjust the trigger settings.

Quote
but sometimes the price differentials make this a profitable result either way

That's hardly going to happen. Players leading by 2 games normally have their prices below 2.0, which means a book% of > 100% if you place back bets on both selections at different moments in the match. Such bets will unfortunately always lead to a loss.

Please make sure you've tested the triggers in Test Mode.
You can test these much faster if you use Time Machine.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #2 on: 26 Feb 2020, 07:05 »
Thanks Oxa, much appreciated and your comments are noted.

Actually,  I was doing this manually through the recent Australian Open and there were several occasions when I had players showing sizeable profits. Unfortunately i haven't kept my data, but Millman v Federer had a Millman win giving a $50 - $60 profit if he won the match (he didn't). Similarly Thiem v Djokovic in the final had a Thiem win showing good profits (he didn't).

So if a couple of results had dropped the right way, good profits could have been made.

Just one query on the trigger, I was placing multiple bets on the same or both players through a set, and it's my fault for not explaining it better.

If scores go:
1-0 no bet
2-0 yes bet
3-0 no bet
3-1 yes bet (same player)
3-2 no bet
4-2 yes bet (same player)
5-2 no bet
5-3 yes bet (same player)
5-4 no bet
6-4 no bet (end of set)

Can I overcome that by executing no more than every 120 secs (as an example)?

Thanks once again,

bobh




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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #3 on: 26 Feb 2020, 22:29 »
Nope, that won't work - many games take much longer than 120 sec, so the bets are just repeating at the same score.

It's too much for my poor brain, so I'll leave it with you! No great hurry, I'm just happy to have a starting point.

bobh

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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #4 on: 28 Feb 2020, 08:27 »
Quote
Can I overcome that 
Sorry, not sure I understood what exactly you are trying to overcome.

Do you want the bets to be placed on the same player within the same set? Or do you want to do the opposite and prevent the bets from being placed on the same player?
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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #5 on: 28 Feb 2020, 13:16 »
Sorry for the confusion.

Yes, same player in same set if that player has a two game advantage several times within the set.

My example just above would have placed 4 bets (subject to price limit) on the same player.

But if the scores went (as an example)
1-0
2-0 bet on player 1 - 2 game advantage
2-1
3-1 bet on player 1 - 2 game advantage
3-2
3-3
3-4
3-5 bet on player 2 - 2 game advantage
4-5
4-6 end of set

then there would be 2 bets on player 1 and 1 bet on player 2 within the set.

Restart for set 2.

I hope I have made it less confusing, but I'm sure you will let me know!

Thanks,

bobh


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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #6 on: 04 Mar 2020, 10:58 »
Please see if the corrected triggers in the attachment work as required.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #7 on: 05 Mar 2020, 00:39 »
Thank you once again Oxa.

I'll let you know.

bobh

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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #8 on: 10 Mar 2020, 00:11 »
Working OK, Oxa, but profits hard to come by!

I have increased the minimum back price to $1.20 which has improved results.

I have also added a greenup at 15%, which has made a big difference to success, but still a bit behind in profitability.

Stop/Loss is impossible, as the price differences between back/lay can sometimes be extraordinary.

One thing I have noticed in following the tennis in-play is how hard the "lesser" players find it to close out a set, and this has made a big difference to the success of this trigger.

Regards,

bobh

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Re: Tennis trigger
« Reply #9 on: 10 Mar 2020, 08:47 »
Quote
Stop/Loss is impossible, as the price differences between back/lay can sometimes be extraordinary.

Yes, that's something I've also noticed long ago. It also makes it hard to green up on a player even if he/she has won the game in which you back on them.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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