Trigger to back 1st 2nd and 3rd fav whose combined odds are 1.4 or above

Friday June 4 2010
Epsom 14:45

Investec Coronation Cup (group 1)
£225000.00 added, 4yo plus, 1m 4f 10y, Class 1, £127732.00 penalty
10 runners
Going: Good
Surface: Turf
Sky Bet special - bet £30, get £30 free!

Colours:  Show  Hide 13:40
 14:10
 14:45
 15:25
 16:05
 16:50
 17:25
 
No.   Form Horse Age Wt Trainer Jockey OR NagMe Bet
1 (6)    15-1660 Bashkirov 12   5 9-0  L Comer  R P Walsh  93    SP SP
100/1 
2 (2)    1113-75 Cavalryman 69    4 9-0  Saeed Suroor  L Dettori  120    SP SP
6/1 
3 (10)    5/51-446 Dixie Music (IRE) 12  4 9-0  A P O'Brien  J A Heffernan  101    SP SP
100/1 
4 (    266-311 Fame And Glory 12   4 9-0  A P O'Brien  J P Murtagh  128    SP SP
11/10 
5 (3)    4112-01 Jukebox Jury (IRE) 34   4 9-0 v  M Johnston  R Ffrench  118    SP SP
12/1 
6 (4)    216-13 South Easter (IRE) 29   4 9-0 t  W J Haggas  R L Moore  105    SP SP
33/1 
7 (9)    23320-8 Youmzain (IRE) 69   7 9-0 v  M R Channon  K Fallon  125    SP SP
8/1 
8 (7)    114/24-0 Clowance 48   5 8-11  R Charlton  J Fortune  110    SP SP
33/1 
9 (1)    331541- High Heeled (IRE) 223   4 8-11  J H M Gosden  William Buick  115    SP SP
14/1 
10 (5)    11123-1 Sariska 22   4 8-11  M L W Bell  J P Spencer  118    SP SP
2/1 
Last Winner Year Horse Trainer Jockey SP Age Wt Draw
2009 Ask Sir Michael Stoute R L Moore 5/1 6 9-0 8



Betting Forecast: 11/10 Fame And Glory, 9/4 Sariska, 7/1 Cavalryman, 8/1 Youmzain (IRE), 14/1 Jukebox Jury (IRE), 20/1 High Heeled (IRE), 33/1 South Easter (IRE), 50/1 Clowance, 100/1 Bashkirov, 100/1 Dixie Music (IRE)
This is the race at epsom on friday 4th june. As you can see this will not qualify as it is a GROUP RACE just look at each race and delete non qualifiers

Hi McBee, Avalon4

ok looks pretty straightforward, maybe possible to get MFP to ignore some of them automatically via the name, but not all.

I'll have a look at today's and post my eliminated races here, and see if they are correct.

Best of luck today all

Rich

ok here are the races I would eliminate based on having no

Group Flat, Novice Handicap Hurdle, Sellers or 30,000 plus Handicaps

they are....

Newton Abbot 16:00 Newton Abbot Racecourse Lady Riders' Selling Handicap Hurdle (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 3f, 15 runners)

Lingfield 16:20 Godfreys - Lawn & Leisure Specialist Selling Stakes (awt) (3yo+, Class 6, 7f, 13 runners)

Wetherby 18:00 Cocktails In The Caribbean Marquee Selling Hurdle (4-7yo, Class 5, 2m 6f, 6 runners)

Wetherby 18:30  Novices' Handicap Hurdle (4yo+, Class 5, 2m 110y, 15 runners)

Uttoxeter 18:55 Pimm's Selling Hurdle (4-8yo, Class 5, 2m, 9 runners)

Feel free to point out any glaring errors folks!

Thanks

Rich

hi
you can add a condition,

AND   
Market's
Name
does not contain
"Nov Hrd"
save

this will not bet in markets with novice hurdle, add another conditon with  "Sell"  for selling races etc.

mcbee

Hi richpotter,

I wonder why "Auctions" are not excluded. Have you an explanation.

Stanislavsky

Yes I see we could add conditions to exclude certain names like

"Nov Hcp Hrd"

but they don't show the prize money in the MFP title so I think I will exclude manually.

Stanislavsky, I don't know why he doesn't exclude auctions , perhaps Avalon4 , can you answer this one?

Rich

Regarding the discussion on the STOP discussed earlier, why not set the trigger so that if the winnings exceed a percentage of bank you revert to test mode and continue betting in test to see what would happen ? 

In that way, over a period of time you can assess whether your Stop level is a suitable compromise between profit and risk.

Colleagues,

Thanks for a fascinating discussion.  One of the risks I've found with automatic dutching can be the exposure to loss where the ducthing formula asks you to risk even 70 or 100 times as much as you are trying to win.  Your discussion reminds me of that problem.  Therefore I am writing to see if anyone has a trigger formula that will limit potential loss

For example, one of my systems gave me the following: I was aiming to win £20 on a 4-way dutch.
Horse 1     2.8,  Stake £330
Horse 2     3.65,    Stake £  640
Horse 3     5.3 ,   Stake £ 423
Horse 32     2.06,  Stake £1088

 
MADE A MESS OF THE LAST POST!!!

The odds were
1.  2.8      £330
2.  3.65    £253
3.  4.5      £205
4.  8         £115

£898 at risk for £20

Clearly, if we are runnign a bot we need one which sayd "Hold on a minut eon this one"  Any thoughts?

Thanks for your patence over 3 posts 

Hi ern1e,

Your problem here is that you are trying to win £20 on a probability of 98% so you can expect to risk a lot to do it.  If you sum the value of one over each odds (which is the implied probability of that selection winning) you get 98% in this case. this is the "back book" of those selections.

You can limit this by setting an acceptable range for the back book by using "Trigger Expression"  ......  "match_b_book"  ......   "is between"  ............ X and Y.

You chose X and Y as percent but I suggest something like 50% adn 85% to limit your liability.

Hope this helps and I am not "teaching you to suck eggs" (why would anyone do that ?)

Alfaman

Thanks.  It's so obvious!!  DOH!

As for " I am not "teaching you to suck eggs" (why would anyone do that ?)"
Answer is simple: some people (Me) need to be told and shown!

As a comedian said once: you may think it's an old joke but it is always new to somebody!