4th Favorite

All,

I have built a trigger based on laying the 4th favorite with stop loss and a good staking plan. I am 46 and 1 to my favour after two days of trial. I am using the simulation mode with smaller bets to start.  The wins are actual as I am keeping track by hand. The staking plan is working to restore any losses so far. Granted - only one. 

My head tells me it can not be this good.  The liabilities are high on some lays but I keep them down as much as possible by limiting the price. I am at a near 95% strike rate.  Somebody tell me the pitfalls here as I know it can't be this easy.

Thanks.

Rob

Sorry,

Thats 2 losses

MFP has a sound simulation mode but its prime purpose is to make sure that your triggers work properly and do not conflict with each other. None of the commercially available types of trading software have simulation modes which accurately reflect real market conditions. Of course, they'll all try to sell the software by saying that their system is perfect but it can't be. None of the bets you place in simulation mode ever reach the real market. Take a look at some of the other forums and see what people say there. One guy is making money on just about every sport he tries on one forum and is beginning to think that he is particularly gifted    He's just getting "Mickey Mouse" results in his training mode.

The only way you can test your strategy is to use real money. I would advise you to use the minimum stake of £2 and do not be tempted to use smaller stakes. ( See other threads which warn of Betfair suspending accounts for improper use of small amounts ). You'll soon see if your system works. Incidentally, any system which has a recovery plan is not one that I would like to consider but that's just my choice.

hi
if you set the test mode to download betfair results and untick any other result box, then the results are very good as the bot will only place bets if there is enough money available at the set odds.
most new users forget to tick the download betfair results and just use random results, the use of random results would be improved if mfp were to add a condition to say 25% win ratio etc.
you only have to worry about ausy markets when betting below the minimum.
if betfair does not like what you are doing they will warn you first.
unfortunatly they do need below the min to make up the unmatched bets etc.



mcbee