Author Topic: An interesting read  (Read 8020 times)

Tags:
  • Nerd
  • Élite
  • Posts: 462
  • Gender: Male
  • I think I could be on to something here!
*
An interesting read
« on: 19 Mar 2014, 19:29 »
While doing some statistical research I came across an interesting article.

small piece below, link to full article further down.

Quote
System salesmen usually promise ridiculous advantages. For example, even with just a 1% advantage on an even money bet, it would not be difficult to parlay $100 into $1,000,000 by betting in proportion to bankroll. I was asked to prove this claim so I wrote a computer simulation based on the toss of a biased coin, with a 50.5% chance of winning. At all times the player bet 1% of his bankroll, rounded down to the nearest dollar. However, if a winning bet would put the player over $1,000,000 then he only bet as much as he needed to get to exactly $1,000,000. In addition, I ran simulations with a 2% advantage and for a starting bankroll of $1,000. Following are the results of all four tests.

$100 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

Bets won = 7,182,811,698 (50.4999%)
Bets lost = 7,040,599,544 (49.5001%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 79,438 (83.019%)
Player went bust first = 16,249 (16.981%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 174,972 (364.5 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$100 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

Bets won = 7,027,117,205 (51.0000%)
Bets lost = 6,751,539,769 (49.0000%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 215,702 (98.099%)
Player went bust first = 4,180 (1.901%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 63,775 (132.9 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 1% Advantage

Bets won = 5,213,026,190 (50.4999%)
Bets lost = 5,109,817,544 (49.5001%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 74,818 (99.0285%)
Player went bust first = 734 (0.9715%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 137,208 (285.8 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)
$1,000 Bankroll, 2% Advantage

Bets won = 6,332,837,070 (50.9996%)
Bets lost = 6,084,596,671 (49.0004%)
Player achieved $1,000,000 first = 267,445 (99.9996%)
Player went bust first = 1 (0.0004%)
Average number of bets to reach $1,000,000 = 46,428 (96.7 days at 8 hours per day, 60 bets per hour)

The Truth About Betting Systems
Fortune favors the brave!

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8821
  • Gender: Female
*
Re: An interesting read
« Reply #1 on: 30 Mar 2014, 12:09 »
That's an interesting piece of statistics 1loser.

Does is actually imply that with only 1% of advantage you are bound to achieve profit rather that go bust in an absolute majority of cases?
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

  • All members
  • Posts: 6
Re: An interesting read
« Reply #2 on: 30 Mar 2014, 21:35 »
1% no problem no mistake no software crashes. massive turn over.what can go wrong.

  • Nerd
  • Élite
  • Posts: 462
  • Gender: Male
  • I think I could be on to something here!
*
Re: An interesting read
« Reply #3 on: 31 Mar 2014, 08:37 »
What I wanted to highlight is that even with a good advantage, but  with a small bank you can still go bust.

Look at the player with a 2% advantage, but only $100 bank .. likely to go bust 17% of the time!
Fortune favors the brave!

  • Administrator
  • Posts: 8821
  • Gender: Female
*
Re: An interesting read
« Reply #4 on: 31 Mar 2014, 10:37 »
Yes, a small bank is definitely a disadvantage. Theoretically with unlimited funds you cannot fail, as you can play endless martingale, but in practice the amount offered in the market is very limited and there is a cap on the maximum bet if I'm not mistaken.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

Follow us on Twitter.

Join our WhatsApp chat!

Присоединяйтесь к официальному Telegram-каналу!

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE