Betfair 3.5 goals back then lay

Hi there new to here so thought would start by sharing a system I've have had a lot of look with in the past only for it to be taken from me as I don't have a plan b or or cover bet if you like .The system was to back under 3.5 goals on chosen low scoring games but only when the first goal was scored and only if this was before 30min of match then lay back under market usually 10 mins later with profit including hedging both outcomes of around 5-10% per trade only issue with the strategy is I have no plan b if a second goal is scored in them 10mins without holding out for price to drop again, any thoughts suggestions or similar experience with similar strategies would be of help to try this again

Cheers
james

I have studied the Over 2.5 market for many years. I believe that your expectations of making 5 - 10 % profit in your chosen time scale are optimistic. I would suggest that you "paper trade" your strategy i.e. do not use real money and use "pretend bets" until you are satisfied that there is merit in your plan. There is no point in automating something until you know it works. Sorry, but I have grave doubts about your strategy.

The system defiantly moves that much trailed it for ages with real money and paper traded the issue is placing a second bet should the unfortunate second goal go in after the first one to try scratch the trade if you like as for you being sceptical about the %of money gained its min of 5% stake but closer to 10% depending on game choosen thanks james

you can only distribute or spread the loss so that you don not lose all your stake.


mcbee

Thanks thought as much didn't no if could get into a different market at same time as second goal was scored to reduce losses that's all

The Betfair markets relating to Overs/Unders are very efficient, especially those which attract high liquidity. This means that there is no easy way to cut losses or win just by placing additional bets in different but related markets. Some spivs try to sell their strategies on the Internet and many routinely involve multiple bets on different markets. They should be avoided.

how much does the price increase after a goal.
there is one today at back odds of 1.59 before kick off.
so in say 10 minutes how much will the price alter
1 - if there is no goal
2 - if a goal is scored

1.59 is starting price for 3.5 goals  i take it you mean , my system was to back 3.5 goals under after a goal had been scored the price goes up to a little under what 2.5 goals was before goal scores so example below

under 3.5 goals price after 10mins around 1.45-1.5
goal scored price rises to around 2 -2.1(our In)
10 mins after scored goal with no other goal 1.7-1.8 (Our exit)t)around 15-20 ticks normally
if another goal scored anything from 3.0 to 4.0 to lay our bet back this is based on the price given above of 1.59 which is high normally around 1.3 before ko rising to 1.8 ish after goal  this high price would suggest alot of goals likely which we dont want really

Am I correct in saying that this "strategy" simply relies on a goal free period of ten minutes in order to be a winner ? If so, it really doesn't matter what the entry point is.

that is correct yes, so how to you decide a entry point of a game i found there is less likely to be 2 goals in ten mins in a low scoring game  than just sticking your money in at any given minute in the match and hopeing theres no goal

Hi
MarketFeeder has a Test Mode so why not try it and see?

This example trigger needs just a few things changing to emulate your current system:
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/green-up-hedge/back-under-2-5/

and for an alternative strategy, why not just add a green up after 10mins or x ticks in profit to this trigger:
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/over-under-martingale/

I think the second one is ideally suited to looking for 10 mins goal-free profit. Your liability is minimal in the early stages, the liquidity is fine for greening / dist loss, and less goals are scored early on. Plus, you can call it a day after x goals and not go the whole way.

great mate thanks il give them both a test