Author Topic: Betting tips  (Read 9942 times)

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Betting tips
« on: 31 May 2015, 13:43 »
I've been dipping in and out of MFP for some years now in search of the mythical perfect trigger. One thing that would help is a reliable source of good quality tips. I've been testing 'The Midas 3 Method' software for a few days and it looks quite promising... This coming month (June) I will be testing it fully from an average punters viewpoint, and publishing the results on Facebook. If you are interested, please search for(and like) my page 'The Mathematical Punter'. Who knows, I may even share a tip or two....
https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Mathematical-Punter/1445596475759031

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #1 on: 01 Jun 2015, 11:19 »
My initial trial of Midas 3 from May 23rd - 31st produced 75 selections plus one non-runner. There was one day I couldn't have placed bets. Of the 75 runners 15 won, giving a strike rate of 20%. 4 were less than 2/1, 7 were between 5/2 and 9/2, and 1 each at 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 and 12/1. There were also several notable second and third places. At a level £10 stake at regular starting prices, this would have produced a profit of £50.40. Assuming a £500 2-point bank, this represents a very nice 10% profit in just over a week. Using an exchange such as Betfair or a best odds site like Bet365, you could have done considerably better. Here's looking forward to a profitable June.....

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #2 on: 01 Jun 2015, 11:52 »
Do you use MFP to place the bets?

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #3 on: 01 Jun 2015, 12:21 »
Hi,
I am all in favour of trying new experiments and variations with triggers and systems. But following tipsters is hardly something new.

So I am wondering, what is the point of you doing this experiment on this forum?

Does the tipster know you will be posting his results/wins/losses on a public site? He may not like that at all.

Also, there is a website out there that already proofs many many systems on a daily basis, so you may have alot of work on to match them.

However, I will for a bit of fun follow your FB page if you free up the settings so I don't have to publicly like it. I don't want a flood of betting ads from Facebook which will happen if I press like. But I wont be signing up to your tipster.

Larp

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #4 on: 01 Jun 2015, 18:55 »
Many thanks for the comments...
No, I'm not using MFP to place the bets, but you may want to...
The Midas system is not a tipster as such, but a web-based programme which compares prices and tries to highlight horses whose odds shorten dramatically, indicating big money may be being placed. It varies according to the time of day you look, so results may differ for different users. I'm just trying to follow it from an average punters point of view.
I know there are many sites out there who critique various systems but many are biased and many more are out of date. Again, just trying to do an honest appraisal. If the system works well maybe you will want to subscribe via my affiliate link. If it doesn't, I will be seeking a refund under my 60 day trial.
And if any tipster objects to anyone making their results public....... maybe they have something to hide :-)

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #5 on: 02 Jun 2015, 07:14 »
My initial trial of Midas 3 from May 23rd - 31st produced 75 selections plus one non-runner. There was one day I couldn't have placed bets. Of the 75 runners 15 won, giving a strike rate of 20%. 4 were less than 2/1, 7 were between 5/2 and 9/2, and 1 each at 5/1, 7/1, 10/1 and 12/1. There were also several notable second and third places. At a level £10 stake at regular starting prices, this would have produced a profit of £50.40. Assuming a £500 2-point bank, this represents a very nice 10% profit in just over a week. Using an exchange such as Betfair or a best odds site like Bet365, you could have done considerably better. Here's looking forward to a profitable June.....


Would you still have a profit, if you have a strike rate corresponding to 11 winners? If the answer is no then you have too few bets to claim any long term profit. Get some more winner and hopefully the statistics will be showing long term profits. The 11 winners in this case corresponding to -1 Sigma.

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #6 on: 07 Jun 2015, 19:13 »
Just reporting in on the first week of testing Midas 3. 51 x £10 bets 'placed' and a total loss for the week of £8.30...
Make of that what you will :-)
 
https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Mathematical-Punter/1445596475759031

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #7 on: 14 Jun 2015, 10:07 »
After a few losing days, the Midas 3 experiment is now showing a nice profit. I have shared todays selections on my Facebook page. No promises, but they may be worth a look
https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Mathematical-Punter/1445596475759031
If you want to check out the software for yourself, have a look at their 60 day money-back offer here...
http://themidasmethod.net/?hop=billypit

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #8 on: 16 Jun 2015, 06:01 »
Hi

So as I understand it,  their software produces the tips?  Where is it getting its info from? are the tips just sent to you via the software or is is calculating something?

It looks as if there are some settings to adjust in the software (eg timing and price movement), is that correct? and, if so, do they tell you where to start or what works best?

What would be interesting would be to pick up some of the "midas touch" and convert it into MFpro!  Have you got any clues as to the price changes they are looking for?

(How much do you get for each referral?)


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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #9 on: 16 Jun 2015, 16:56 »
To answer Alfaman, yes indeed, the software does generate the tips. It checks with early morning SP forecasts, then tries to locate horses which are significantly lower in price (steamers) by 40%.. It ignores races with 2 steamers as this may have been caused by favourites pulling out etc..
You could do this without the software if you had the time (and inclination) but Midas 3 does it in minutes...
You can do this any time of day (they recommend 12-1) but for my test I have been doing it around 10.30 - 11.00 and it seems to be working
I guess you could write a trigger to do this but you would have to monitor all the races from 9 am, so you would have a problem with data limits....
In my test I am also basing it on using a 'best-odds' bookie (e.g. Bet 365) as many of these steamers seem to drift later in the day, and getting the best available price is important.
As for referral rates, you can check that out with Midas if you are interested. I have only just signed up with them so I don't have the figures off the top of my head...
Hope that has answered a few questions....
Incidentally, June 15th, halfway through the month we are showing a 'profit' of £135.50 to a level £10 stake.... Quite impressed !!
http://themidasmethod.net/?hop=billypit

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #10 on: 16 Jun 2015, 18:11 »
Thanks - well done certainly impressive results.

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #11 on: 17 Jun 2015, 10:28 »
Took a bit of a dip yesterday losing £56.70.... Profit now down to +£78.80
Sharing todays selections in the hope they will do better !! Have fun... :-)

https://www.facebook.com/pages/The-Mathematical-Punter/1445596475759031

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #12 on: 23 Jun 2015, 06:24 »
I hope you dont mind a quote from your own Facebook page:

"22nd June... 4 winners today, including Dunroe Boy in the 6.55 at Kilbeggan, coming home at an amazing 16/1 !!
This has brought us back from the brink again, into a very acceptable £142.70 profit for the month....
Watch this space !!"

I was interested by this as Dunroe Boy went off at 25 on Betfair, so that leads me to the questions, if I may:

Could you see a price drop on this one.  On Betfair its weighted average price at 11am was about 17, but it went off at 25 so to MF Pro this would have looked like a drifter not a steamer.

Two, what wold the profits be like using Betfair?  Presumably more than you are getting?

If you PM me and send me a list of winners an losers on your trial I will cross match if you would like and check the difference from my records.

Good luck, it's a bumpy ride,

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #13 on: 23 Jun 2015, 09:53 »
I don't mind you quoting at all Alfaman....
Yes, Dunroe Boy started at 26 in the morning. By the time I checked the software (around 11.00) it had dropped to 15, thus satisfying the '40% or over' that Midas 3 searches for... I'm basing my calculations on using a 'bet odds' bookie (Bet 365) as this particular selection (like many) then drifted back out to 17 (16/1) at the start. If you were to place bets with Betfair you may have taken it at 17, or got a better (or worse) price at the start...
The other thing I am noticing with Midas is the relatively high number of placed horses. I also need to check the profit (or loss) from place betting too...
I'm attaching the Excel calculator I'm using which has all the runners so far (plus todays selections, in case lightning strikes twice :-))

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Re: Betting tips
« Reply #14 on: 23 Jun 2015, 18:44 »
It looks like the Midas Model works - you are doing great!  ;)

I know you make the check at 11, but I wounder if it would work if you where checking the prices at betfair before the off compared with the forcasted odds.?

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE