New Horse Laying System

Hello all....

In this thread I will update results of a new In Play horse laying system I have been working on....

Results are pretty good for past few weeks so I will start to publish actual results in this google spreadsheet (see link)


https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1yEeLVb4STR8mjSDER7WaABrFomtxgu-xDqsRZd9pSFc/edit?usp=sharing

Hi,

Good luck with it. Its been awhile since someone put up a system to follow.

I have 2 points to make on initial impression.

Would it be usual to lay 6 of 8 runners, especially at high prices ? (Warwick 3.10)

Commission is not yet included, because of the low stakes?

I look forward to reading the results.
Larp

Yes well spotted Larp!  I was not happy about that risk either and so for today and moving forward  the trigger was limited to running on a max of 3 runners.
Yep no commission yet incurred... Maybe in a few days if things go well!

I am also considering a rule where by the bet will not be placed if the horse is within the top 2 horses predicted by the ATR predictor but this may rule out too many legit lays.

I think it's too few bets at the moment to say it's profitable. Would you still have a profit with only one more losing race a day (based on your average odds)?

It is pretty borderline isnt it..... i could probably handle 2 more loses per day but thats about it. Lets wait and see what the coming days bring... I will also be cross referencing any failures with the ATR predictor to see if that is a good source for horses to exclude from lays. ( it does seem to be very good at the moment)

hi,

There will be a problem with unmatched bets when the stakes are increased, don't you think?

Yep no commission yet incurred

I suppose there could be a risk that betfair close the account if you not pay any commission?

It is pretty borderline isnt it..... i could probably handle 2 more loses per day but thats about it. Lets wait and see what the coming days bring... I will also be cross referencing any failures with the ATR predictor to see if that is a good source for horses to exclude from lays. ( it does seem to be very good at the moment)

How are you doing?

Abandoned it I'm afraid... to a certain extent anyway...I was hoping to automate everything completely but I suspect that is never going to happen!

For the past few days I have been laying following a similar system but it definately needs user input to watch over things and call the last minute shots!

I belive often when trying a new system there is a great risk to abandon a strategy to early. The human mind usually do too fast conclusions, and overreact  on both to losses and wins.
Sometimes a loosing streak of just a day could be enough for abandon the strategy. I don't know if that's in your case, but statistical analysis could be a tool to help with moderating the "over reacting mind".  As long as the expectation value is within one standard deviation it's hard to say anything. In the situation (if you are within 1 standard deviation) the profits or losses mainly reflects the effects of randomness.