Finding value - maybe

Hi,

I been doing some analysis of UK/Ire horse races and came up with the following.

- Check the racingpost website around 10.00am
- Check the predicted starting price
- Check on betfair
- If the betfair price is > 50% of the predicted starting price then back it
- If the betfair price is < 50% of the predicted starting price then lay it
- Either let it run or trade it out just before the race starts

Take a look at the 2.10 Huntingdon race today. The favourite (Polo) is predicted to start around 2.68 or 11/4 but betfair has it currently trading around 3.6.

This either offers very good value or the market thinks this horse is a false favourite ?

Any feedback ?

Hi,

there is a betting system "out-there" that uses the predicted Racing Post SPs as a guide for trading near the off. Not sure of the details, but personally I wouldnt like to be backing the drifters near to the off hoping for a consistent green up/ return.

Larp

Hi i have read this now, The favourite (Polo) was really a false favorite. I Know more or less how the persons put the odds, but sometime dont undertand nothing about how that horse can have a very low odds, and then its when i lay. Anyway that horse in my excel after putting everything(speed, trainer, jockey, form, etc etc) must have 5

I was able to lay him at 2.83 at i finished the green up at 5.

You know first know if the horse have value or not doing the calcularon. I can send you a book  that i bought for free if want to learn

Good luck

Yes please, send me the book.

Thanks.