Author Topic: Football/Soccer Match Odds  (Read 18358 times)

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Football/Soccer Match Odds
« on: 03 Aug 2014, 08:20 »
Hi,

I think I have finally worked out how to make money on the Match Odds but only if a game supports in-play mode. Which many/most do. You do also need liquidity in the market.

At the end of a match then 1 teams odds will be <= 1.10 and the other plus the draw odds will be >= 10.00.

Placing a lay-greenup-distribute loss on all 3 outcomes with 20 tick profit and 20 tick loss means you always make a profit regardless. It works out that you get 2 x 20 ticks - 1 x 20 ticks = +20 ticks profit.

So far I have tested it on 27 separate games without a loss. :)

Only taken me 6 years to figure it out. :(

Now, not sure you can use MFP to do it due it not always greening up or distributing the loss correctly. But there is another well known product which I used but I wont post that here.

Cybernet.

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #1 on: 03 Aug 2014, 09:11 »
May we know more about the incorrect behaviour?
Thank you.
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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #2 on: 03 Aug 2014, 09:23 »
I probably used the wrong terminology. However the other piece of software works out which outcome to place the bet on to get a green book. MFP doesn't do that, it relies on the user knowing which one to place the bet on. This can become difficult if you have laid all possible outcomes but not initially to an overround%. Just running a greenup trigger doesn't have the same outcome as it trys to geenup all 3 outcomes which is different. If I knew how the other piece of software was working it out then I would request a trigger to be made here but I cant figure out how they do it. Wasn't meant to be a criticism of MFP. :)

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #3 on: 03 Aug 2014, 09:45 »
Just add a simple condition to the greening-up trigger that checks if a selection has a matched back/lay bet, then it won't try to green up the ones that don't have bets.

But anyway, even if it does, it will just ignore the selections that can't be greened up, i.e. the ones with balanced payout and liability.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #4 on: 03 Aug 2014, 10:15 »
Ok, thanks for that. Will give it a try on the Arsenal v Monaco game this afternoon. :)

One thing the other software does when you manually greenup is to work out which one give the best payout regardless of the one you actually tell it to greenup. Which is a nice feature.

Anyway, enough of the other software. Will try and build the triggers for MFP.

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #5 on: 04 Aug 2014, 10:53 »
With MF Pro you can tell how much a selection will generate after a green-up if you switch to the Engineer mode and compare the figures on the trade-out button. See the attached screenshot with red squares.

BTW, I'm fine with comparing to "the other program" as long as you don't advertise it explicitly.
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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #6 on: 04 Aug 2014, 16:04 »
Hi Cybernet69,
I admire your effort to finally get there after 6 years. One thing that gave me a chill was, what happens if you have just layed the losing team and it scores a goal in the dying seconds?, the payout could be a nasty blow. I just would find it a bit unsettling trying to close all positions at the death. Anyway you may have it all under control and kind of you to share your ideas with us.
Thanks and good luck, I for one would be interested to hear of your progress.
Cheers
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #7 on: 04 Aug 2014, 18:48 »
hi
i have done many tests and IF only IF you can get equal profit ticks times 2 of the loss ticks, then ok, BUT this does not happen many times so you end up with more losses than profits.
please correct me with your statements/screenshots of winning markets.


mcbee
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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #8 on: 04 Aug 2014, 20:50 »
If you have a look at SM and do what if scenarios then you will figure out what the odds of all 3 outcomes before the event starts need to be. This will give you an indication as to the odds for a goal scored by the home, away team and the effect of no goal. I am sure you can also do the same thing with BF data. i.e. what the odds are prior to the game what what they were after something happened. You will be surprised how accurate you can predict the odds movement and therefore act accordingly.

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #9 on: 04 Aug 2014, 22:40 »
hi
i have set triggers to ONLY bet if there is a profit from all 3 outcomes, there are not many meets the conditon,so the lay bets stay and if you are lucky you win..
the only way is to be very selective with matches.
i have tried lay x amount and back x amount, not good results.
lay to book% and then back at 50% of the lay amount if all 3 are in profit, good BUT not good enough.
dutch lay the 3, then back if there is a profit,only good if the prices are ok.
as you say -20 ticks+20ticks+20ticks is perfect,but if you lay at say 3 (average lay price) then when the favourite is 1.10 you are talking about a lot more than 20 ticks, so the other 2 selections need to be x ticks greater than the favourite is minus x ticks.
say 3.00 reaches 1.10 that is 1/.02=50+.90/.01=90 total ticks= 140
so the other 2 selections need to be 140 ticks greater than there lay bet price.
i need to see screen shots of bets layed then backed.
i can then work out a trigger to do the same.

mcbee
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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #10 on: 05 Aug 2014, 11:41 »
Hi,

From what I have worked out so far you need to pick potentially very tight games where all 3 outcome odds before the start of the event are between 2 and 5.

An example would be Manchester City v Manchester United.

Cybernet.

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #11 on: 05 Aug 2014, 11:46 »
With MF Pro you can tell how much a selection will generate after a green-up if you switch to the Engineer mode and compare the figures on the trade-out button. See the attached screenshot with red squares.

BTW, I'm fine with comparing to "the other program" as long as you don't advertise it explicitly.

Yes, but that tells you the best greenup for each selection. I would need the best greenup for the entire book if the odds mean its possible. Does such a function exist in MFP currently ?

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Re: Football/Soccer Match Odds
« Reply #12 on: 05 Aug 2014, 14:16 »
hi
yes i green up with a formula using the back action, so the trigger checks each set of 3 outcomes and only greens if each shows a profit
if i had a screen shot of the bets placed, then i could work out the correct formula and make a trigger.
the problem i have had is there are not enough green ups to cover the lost lay markets.
if there could be a good selection method then it should produce more green ups than lost lay markets.
if this could be reproduced, then it could be a vvery profitable trigger.

mcbee
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