I always run ideas through test mode, but I have been burnt a couple of times when turning loose a seemingly profitable strategy.
So I started wondering how will i know how likely a strategy is to be successful? Should I stick it out, maybe it's a rough patch?
After a bit of googling I came across a formula to calculate the probability of success based on your test data.
The strategy must already be profitable. This measure should be used as a confidence factor.
The formula is not a holy grail as deviations occur (see
standard deviation), however it seems very
99.9% confidence factor is ideal, but 95% and starting with small stakes initially is also OK.
Examples calculation:
Backing/Laying at 11.00 (10/1) you need 73 bets to achieve 99.9% confidence that the results achieved can be sustained when going live.
Backing/Laying at 15.00 (14/1) you need 101 bets to achieve 99.9% confidence that the results achieved can be sustained when going live.
Note: on lower odds, the number of bets required to achieve 99.9% also decreases. I would recommend a minimum of 25 bets regardless.
Using Microsoft Excel [Not tried on Google sheets]
Type the average odds of all your selection in A1
Type the total number of selection in B1
Paste below formula in C1
=(1-POWER(1-(1/A1),B1))*100