Author Topic: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE  (Read 50143 times)

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HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« on: 05 Sep 2010, 20:20 »
Hi guys been looking at this for a while now and wanted to share.

This is a very simple way to greatly enhance prices for a PLACE on horses in certain races by scalping bookmakers' prices under certain conditions where the bookmaker has no choice but to offer way above the true odds for part of an each way bet...the place part of the bet....and to do this you need only place 2 bets.
 
You will need to have a bookmakers' account to place one side of this bet and the other is done on the exchanges.
 
Personally, when I do these bets I am looking to get at least 50% above the Betfair place prices on offer. There are usually 2 or 3 good opportunities to do this bet every day and if you keep doing these bets you cannot fail to make money because we are getting way above the true odds for the event.
 
The perfect races to be able to do this bet are a minimum of 8 runners...so we get to 3 places with the bookmaker....and non-handicaps, and the market needs to be heavily weighted towards the front end on 2 or 3 horses with ideally an odds-on favourite.
 
So a market that looks something like this in the bookmakers' betting show......4/7; 3/1; 6/1; 14/1; 16/1; 18/1; 25/1; 50/1
 
There's an odds-on favourite with the next two in the betting fairly short prices then a big gap from the 3rd favourite to the 4th in the betting. The odds-on favourite obviously should win the race and the next two in the betting look like they should be good things for a place.
 
We are not interested in the favourite, but the next 2 possibly for a place, especially the 3/1 shot as it it more likely to place than the 6/1.
 
The Betfair place market would look something like this for these prices.....1.12; 1.34; 1.7;...........

If like me you're going for at least 50% on the place price, look at the Betfair place prices and we're looking at the horse that is 3/1....the place is 1.34 (0.34/1)...if you divide it by 2, so 0.17 then add that to the 0.34 it gives 0.51 as being 50% over the odds. The bookmaker in his rules has no choice but to give 1/5th of the show odds for the place part of his each-way bet so he is offering us 1/5th of 3/1 for the place = 0.6/1 (2.6) which is above 0.51 so So we place an each way bet with the bookmaker, say 50 each way @ 3/1. As soon as that is done we go across to Betfair and immediately LAY the win to win 50 on the win market.

Say in this example to lay the horse that is 3/1 we had to lay at 4.3 (3.3/1).

So with the bookmaker if the horse won the race we would get back 50x3 + 50x0.6 = +180and if it placed we would lose 20 so -20.....and if unplaced we lose -100. With our LAY bet on Betfair, if the horse won the race we would lose 50x3.3 = -165 and if it lost the race we would win 50 less Betfair commission (say 5%) = +47.50

Putting the two bets together:

If horse wins the race.....from Bookie +180 less from Betfair -165 = +15 If the horse finishes 2nd or 3rd.....from Bookie -20 plus from betfair +47.50 = +27.50 If the horse is unplaced.....from Bookie -100 and from Betfair +47.50 = -52.50

So we have risked a total of 100 with the bookie and 50x3.3 = 165 on Betfair = a total of 265 but the MOST we can possibly lose is 52.50.

So we have a risk of 52.50 to win 27.50 if the horse places 2nd or 3rd which is 0.52/1 (1.52) when the Betfair price is 0.34. We have more than 50% over the odds. Also if the horse did actually win the race we still make a profit in this example of +15. You may decide to adjust stakes slightly so that you win the same amount if the horse wins or finishes 2nd or 3rd but really it is better longterm to aim for 2nd and 3rd because a higher percentage of these bets are going to place than win the races.

In the above example, you could have probably done the same bet with the 3rd in the betting too as it was 1.7 for a place on betfair, 50% over the odds would make it 2.05 and the bookmaker is giving 1/5th of 6/1, so 2.2 (1.2/1). However when there are two that qualify in the same race I would always side with the shorter price one as it is far more likely to place than the bigger priced one.

So that is the way to scalp bookmakers' place price...of course the win prices can be scalped too, but that's another story ...and apart from restricting the size of your bets there is nothing they can do about it. Fortunately there are many bookmakers for us to utilize and the majority of bets placed with them will be losing money because the horses will be finishing 2nd or 3rd and we'll be picking up the lay money from Betfair. The only drawback is when one or two of these horses actually win and your bookmaker account dramatically increases. Win too much off them and they soon restrict your bets or worse still close the account so ideally after a win or two and your account has shot up it's best if you try to transfer some money across to Betfair by finding something to bet on with the bookmaker that should lose!...that you can lay on Betfair at the same or near the same price.

This is an extremely powerful and profitable betting technique to have in your armoury.

Here are a few examples:

TIDAL BAY Jan 27 1.00 Cheltenham 11 runners Novice Hurdle 3 places 1/5th the place with bookmakers Starting Prices Ev Wichita Lineman 11/4 Tidal Bay 7/1 Zilcash 11/1 16/1bar

These are the SPs. Prices near the start were similar with bookmakers. You can see there's a gap of more than 4 points between the 2nd and 3rd fav and a further gap of 4 points from 3rd to 4th in the betting. The prices are telling us TIDAL BAY has a VERY good chance of finishing at least in the places.


On the Betfair place market TIDAL BAY was trading around 1.36 (0.36/1). On the win market it could be laid at 3.8 (2.8/1). I bet as follows:

43 each way @ 11/4 with bookmaker and laid 50 @ 3.8 (2.8/1) on the Betfair win market If TB won.........43 x 11/4 + 43 x 0.55 for the place with bookmaker = +141.90 less 50 x 2.8 pay out on Betfair = -140 So if TB won......+1.90

If TB placed......-43 win part of each way bet, +23.65 place part = -19.35 with bookie, +50 from Betfair laying the win, less 5% commission = +47.50 So if TB placed.....+28.15

If TB unplaced.....-100 with bookie, +47.50 from Betafir So if TB unplaced.....-52.50

So after placing the 2 bets the risk was 52.50 and stood to win 28.15 if it finished 2nd or 3rd = average price of
1.535 (0.535/1). So I had a place bet at 1.53 on Tidal Bay when it was only available at 1.36 on Betfair, so just about 50% greater odds. RESULT:¬TIDAL BAY finished 2nd 11/4...........+28.15
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ Here is another from the same day INGLIS DREVER Jan 27 2.10 Cheltenham 9 runners Hurdle 3 places 1/5th the place with bookmakers Prices near the off and Starting prices 4/7 BlackJackKetchum 9/2 Inglis Drever 7/1 Flight Leader 14/1 Blazing Bailey.

Again a big gap in price between 2nd and 3rd fav and also from 3rd to 4th in the betting. INGLIS DREVER looking good for a place. 1/5th the odds and 9/2 with bookies means a place price of 1.9. It was trading around 1.44 on Betfair place market.

50 each way @ 9/2 with bookies = +270 if wins...-5 if places...-100 if unplaced from bookie So if ID won........0 If ID placed 2nd or 3rd.....+42.50 If unplaced.....-52.50
So the risk was 52.50 to win 42.50 if it placed 2nd or 3rd....so I had a price for the place of 1.81 when on Betfair it was 1.44, so almost 90% greater odds. RESULT:¬INGLIS DREVER finished 2nd 9/2.......+42.50 

+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++ +
Here's another example STANERRA'S STORY Wol 2.20 Maiden Stakes 10 runners 1/5th place with bookmakers Prices near the off 1/3 Fringe 13/2 Stanerra's Story 14/1 Soul Blazer 18/1 bar

Big price gap between the favourite and 2nd fav and also from 2nd to 3rd.

Stanerra's Story was trading at 1.57 for the place on Betfair. The bookies odds for a place were 13/2 divided by 5 = 1.3/1 (2.3) so more than DOUBLE the betfair odds.

I backed:

50 each way @ 13/2 with a bookmaker = +390 if it won; +15 if placed and -100 if unplaced Laid 50 @ 7.8 (6.8/1) on Betfair = -340 if won and +47.50 if it didn't win

So if SS won......+50 If SS placed 2nd or 3rd.....+62.50

So the risk was 52.50 to win 62.50 if it placed 2nd or 3rd....so I had a price for the place of 2.19 (1.19/1) when on Betfair it was 1.57, so more than DOUBLE the Betfair odds! 

RESULT:¬STANERRA'S STORY Won 6/1..........+50

I hope that this is useful for you guys.

 
 



 


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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #1 on: 06 Sep 2010, 07:29 »
Your strategy looks interesting .. although I think some of you calculations are wrong.

11/4 = 2.75 .. so 1.75/1 so 1/5th with the bookies will be 0.35/1 which is 1.35 so betfair price was on par!

9/2 is 4.5 so 3.5/1 and 1/5th is 0.7/1 so 1.70 with bookies .. and good bet

13/2 is 6.5/1 palce at bookies will be 1.3/1 which is 2.3 correct calculation!

I will check this out in detail tonight or tomorrow!
Fortune favors the brave!

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #2 on: 06 Sep 2010, 09:19 »
Hi,

This strategy really works and is known as the "Value Horse Method" (VHM).

There is even software out in the market that is based on this method.

Unfortunately, this strategy cannot be automated with Marketfeeder as it requires to place bets with bookies.

It also requires good money management because one has to place all lay bets with Betfair. But this system might also work without any lay bets, just place value bets with the bookie.

The calculations are correct because 11/4 = 3.75, 9/2 = 5.5 and so on...


It's still in my mind to import bookies prices into MFpro but it is not so easy....

Cheers,
bamthwok


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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #3 on: 06 Sep 2010, 19:11 »
DarkHorse,

Thanks for the excellent contribution.  ;D

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #4 on: 07 Sep 2010, 03:43 »
Hi,
importing bookies prices in MFP is in fact a general request concerning many sport strategies.
Entering a market with the best available bookie price, gives definitely  more value to bets.
I have actually programmed "Importing external feeds to MFP via Excel" and I will post something similar to the forum next week.
It will concern:
"Average Odds Market Moves from 200+ bookies on soccer"
http://www.tip-ex.com/omoves.php?ot=0

If we consider Excel as a hub to external feeds (XML, html table, databases,...) all helpful info can be imported to MFP for our own use.

Excel is the wright tool to import such feeds.
The main problem will always be naming differences of selections between bookies and BetFair.
I have this problem on soccer today.

Best Regards,

Theodore



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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #5 on: 07 Sep 2010, 18:34 »
@tpanos

when I want to compare bookie odds with betfair odds for horse racing, I first export betfair names to excel and I import bookie names into excel. In Excel I trim the names and then I look up the bookie prices and export them back to MfPro.

If I refresh Excel data fast then MFPro becomes almost unusable for further working on triggers but if I just let existing triggers run it works without problem.

Still I feel that there must be a better technique in comparing bookie and betfair odds.

Can you advise?

RE: Football

Sorry for getting a bit off topic here, but do you have a source that lists all football teams with betfair names?

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #6 on: 08 Sep 2010, 03:21 »
when I want to compare bookie odds with betfair odds for horse racing, I first export betfair names to excel and I import bookie names into excel. In Excel I trim the names and then I look up the bookie prices and export them back to MfPro.

Is it an automatic method?


RE: Football

Sorry for getting a bit off topic here, but do you have a source that lists all football teams with betfair names?

You do not want 1 list but 1 per bookie and betfair.
No, such a list does not exist to my knowledge.

Unfortunately everyday I check BetFair soccer names against other bookie names for every external feed I use.

There are not only differences on the bookie side i.e
BF - Podbeskidzie B-B, bookie - Podbeskidzie Bielsko-Bial
BF - Adelaide, bookie - Adelaide United
BF - Stuttgart-A, bookie - Stuttgart (A)
BF - Braunschweig, bookie - Eintr. Braunschweig
BF - Ostersunds FK, bookie - Östersunds FK

But inside BetFair as well:

In Match Odds Market:
Adelaide-Melbourne Heart
In Correct Score Market
Adelaide-Melb

In soccer, triming names does not solve the problem, you must do it by hand, day by day, up to the point that the bookie names list map betfair names list

I think that Excel -as a data hub to external feeds- is a very good companion tool to MFP

Best Regards,

Theodore

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #7 on: 08 Sep 2010, 04:24 »
Hi tpanos,

Yes my method for importing bookie odds is automated. But I use only one bookie, William Hill's free XML feed. These data I can import into Excel with a web query and then I refresh the data every 30 seconds.

Yes, Excel is a very powerful companion for MFPro, especially if one has good knowledge of VBA. My knowledge is very basic only.


Cheers,
bamthwok

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #8 on: 27 Sep 2010, 06:16 »

There is even software out in the market that is based on this method.

Cheers,
bamthwok



Hi

I read this with interest as I do remember something called Value Horse Finder a few years ago but it now seems to be merged into Racing Synergy which is purely an arb hunter.

I would love some software that did this as this really is an untapped opportunity. I make a fair bit of money doing this but would make an awful lot more if I had software that saved me many many hours of trawling through all the markets for viable opportunities.

Any software developers who could do this?



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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #9 on: 27 Sep 2010, 07:52 »
Hi Nickdare,

Do a google search and key in "betometer" and you will find the successor of value horse finder!

Cheers,
bamthwok

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #10 on: 01 Oct 2010, 19:05 »
Hi bamthwok

I had a look at that software as they give a decent free trial.
Looks quite impressive but I've had problems getting the bookmaker arbitrage function to operate consistently - often it just won't display any bookmakers prices, so becomes fairly pointless.

When it does work it certainly shows some decent paper profits - but only when you have all the bookmakers selected, so you would need to open and fund a lot of accounts.  Also the opportunities seem to be around the 8 - 16 price range, so you would be exposing yourself to some significant liability on the lay bet, coupled with the risk of not getting the other bets on at the expected prices.

A definite system, but I somehow think you would be climbing walls trying to get all the bets on.
 

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #11 on: 02 Oct 2010, 08:20 »
Hi Guys

Thanks for the heads up on the software. In the meantime I had discovered Racing Synergy and decided to trial it for a week. This is only arb software on the win market but is a product offered by the bloke who developed VHM. I have to say the software has been fantastic and I have definitely won enough this week warrant paying for the software on an annual licence. I don't intend to review it or try to sell it on here as I am sure it is just one of many similar products that do the same thing but I will say that I am very happy with it's performance after using it for 1 week.

Now I am off to try out the betometer.

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #12 on: 02 Oct 2010, 19:24 »
Hi Guys

Thanks for the heads up on the software. In the meantime I had discovered Racing Synergy and decided to trial it for a week. This is only arb software on the win market but is a product offered by the bloke who developed VHM. I have to say the software has been fantastic and I have definitely won enough this week warrant paying for the software on an annual licence. I don't intend to review it or try to sell it on here as I am sure it is just one of many similar products that do the same thing but I will say that I am very happy with it's performance after using it for 1 week.

Now I am off to try out the betometer.

A year's subscription is about £200 so, I assume, that you made £ 200 in your trial week. This is a very good result and I cannot understand why you do not continue to use it. Another thing I cannot understand is why these people do not keep this special software to themselves. Also, they have been trying to sell this software for many years. Surely by now they would have made enough money for themselves to be able to give the software away free ?

I will not be buying the product.

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #13 on: 02 Oct 2010, 20:01 »
Sorry to follow up my own post but I just had to say that I have found the Betometer site. It says that it is the "Holy Grail" of betting and guarantees money for all ! The people who sell this product say that they do it to help others.  A bit like Mother Theresa, I suppose. Only a matter of time before they get a Nobel Prize.

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Re: HOW TO SCALP BOOKMAKER PRICES FOR A PLACE
« Reply #14 on: 03 Oct 2010, 09:35 »
In my opinon the basic concept of exploiting the bookmaker's fixed calculation (not true odds) of place odds in each way bets is working.

However, as mentioned by rubold before, it requires various bookmaker accounts and all lay bets have to be placed on betfair which requires quite large funding of the account.

This has the effect that not many occassional punters will stay with this system.

It also has to be said, that it requires to bet manually with the bookmakers. I haven't tried Race Synergy but the usual problem is that the bookmakers prices will not be updated fast enough. Most of the times, the odds are no longer available with the bookmaker which can lead to frustration....

The basic idea of the Value Horse Method can be applied with the Marketfeeder software. We just need a reliable xml feed of up to date bookmaker prices to be imported into Excel.

Cheers,
bamthwok

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE