How well does our triggers works?

Hi,

I wondering how well are we actually doing. With this thread I do not want someone who has found the Holy Grail, explicit tell how. I think it would be interesting and could inspire everyone here in the forum, to tell how well we are doing with our "latest" trigger and how much it  have it increased the bankroll and what span is the stakes within. I suppose most of our triggers are losing ones (in long term) or we do not give time to really try them out.

Also the time machine which I suppose some of you are testing for the MFP (how is that going?), but I do believe there always a difference between testing on historical data and in real play.

Interesting aspects could be:

[realplay/testmode/historicaldata] -  how have you verified the results?
[%-increase of bankroll]  - how much have you increased you dedicated bankroll with respect to the trigger?
[betting span] -  min or max?
[system/progression/ trading] - flat betting, progression, arbitrage, trading, tipster etc.

Example:
Real Play
26.6 %
1-4%
weak or no progression after a loss

I am running my latest trigger or system,  24/7 - my goal is to double up my bankroll and hopefully it will.

The profit right now is 27.0 % of initial bankroll and all bets is < 4% of maximum bankroll. I use weak or no progression and all bets are pre-off. Average bankroll increase ~1% per day.

My model is high turnover / low margin.

Target margin is 2-3%, I currently only achieve 1-1.5% but this is enough to double my capital every ~6 months.

I can't wager in in-play sports markets only horses racing in Australia & UK.   

Two out of hundreds of triggers -  I was hoping for a bit more 

Hi Tupp,

I expect everyone is reluctant to reveal their outcomes for fear of embarassment if bad, and unwelcomed approaches/pestering if good.  I wonder is we designed an annonymous poll we would get a greater response?
 
I know people on here getting nowhere, and others paying Premium Charges on Betfair.  I have not met people making money who are not trading in some fashion.  (ie not straight, unhedged backing or laying).

I have been runnning about 30 plus straight backing and laying ideas in test (in parrallel to my live trading) for several years and it is amazing how many do not apprear random - they follow a distinct trend (either up or down) - for a while - may be months - then they reverse and do the opposite losing all benefits. I don't get this - random noise I could understand - but not strong trends that suddenly reverse?

They are all £2 - £3 stakes (with no staking plans or loss recovery - evil things) and the only ones now in the thousands positive are high risk lay strategies which could crash an burn at any time.  One reached £7000 recently only to be hit by a couple of £1000 losses in a few days.  It is still positive and now trending up again but I could not take that kind of heart attack factor in LIVE.

Therefore unless people have the results over a very long period it will not prove much - growth could all be gone tomorrow.  Slow and steady, small margins, trading strategies - that's my thinking.

Doesn't answer your question though!   

Alfaman

3% of maximum bankroll for me. So far, everything has been doing great.