Author Topic: LUCKY 15  (Read 87122 times)

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LUCKY 15
« on: 27 Jan 2024, 22:19 »
Has anyone devised a trigger for betting the Lucky 15 bet type on Betfair. ?
My thoughts were to use the Notepad method for safety which ensures
only the initial stake is used from ones Betfair account.
Cheers, Ian.
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #1 on: 29 Jan 2024, 21:04 »
Hi
I've had a look and there are plenty online calculators for this, Betfair has one too. If you could give some insight of how the 15 bets over 4 selections are made and in what markets then I'm sure this could be done in MFP. 
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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #2 on: 30 Jan 2024, 11:51 »
This is something I have been playing about with for a while, focussing initially on just the trebles - working on the basis that if I can get that working the rest should fall into place.

The bit I have been stuck on for a while is what to do when you have multiple lines hitting the same selection.

I have tried for example coming up with a trigger containing system number for each bet

So for example for four horses a, b, c and d we end up four trebles (lets assume for now that the races are in chronological order - it gets more complicated when not, but the principle is the same)

Treble 1: a,b,c
Treble 2: a,b,d
Treble 3: a,c,d
Treble 4: b,c,d

So I can create trigger treble 1, 2, 3 and 4 and you can refer back to outcome of previous triggered event, but this does still leave working out the outcome from the profit of the races and how it relates to the next bet in the sequence. I have this running and it will work fine for a single treble, but its gets problematic when combining with other trebles that have combinations of the same selections

So if horse A wins you can divide the profit by 3 and add it to the stake for the next bets in trebles 2, 3 and 4.
But if horse A loses and horse B wins, then you don't want to be dividing the profit from Horse B as it just goes onto the one treble 4 selection C. If horse A and B win, then again you don't want to divide the profit by three, but need to related it back to the three lines in progress.

In the doubles in the L15 this gets more complicated as there are more of them, and its possible that you can have some bets on a horse that are the first leg of a double, and others that are the second leg, and if it wins you want to be leaving the profit from the winning second leg, but rolling on the profit from the winning first legs. 

This is the crux at present.... I am trying to think through an efficient approach that can address this fundamental issue, as I am not sure yet I have adopted the correct starting point.

Obviously you have all the other fun and games that can still mix things up for you. Overlaps in race finishes to the next race start, some meetings being delayed by over 30mins etc

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #3 on: 30 Jan 2024, 11:53 »
Sorry made a mistake

So if horse A wins you can divide the profit by 3 and add it to the stake for the next bets in trebles 1, 2 and 3
.

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #4 on: 02 Feb 2024, 17:11 »
Hi,
Apologies for the delay but have been frantically searching for an Excel program I designed in Excel
to place bets anytime after previous leg result is known.
1) After each race div is known enter div in Win Odds. It will calculate the amount to place on next race.
2) There are 4 sets, just use one of them. I only setup 4 in case I ran 1-4 Lucky15's at the same time. 
3) In the second set from left you can see the bet amounts when all 4 bets lose.

I would somehow like to set this up using the Notepad method.

Any ideas anyone ?

Please see attached

Ian
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #5 on: 02 Feb 2024, 19:19 »
Ian, I am not sure how to convert that as-is to notepad, maybe someone else has an idea.

I have been working my way through the logic I had already started - still just focussing on trebles for now but picking up the selections and trebles they are in from Notepad. My aim is to try and get it that I can just save the selections and trebles data as an array and leave MFP to do the rest.

Needless to say this approach is growing out of control as I expand it.

So far I have two trebles that run totally independently of each other and increase the stake as the winners are found.

The bit I am going to try to work out tomorrow is how to address when multiple trebles back the same selection.

I am thinking I need to divide the total profit and loss from the race by the total amount staked, and then multiply that by the stake contained within each treble - this would then allow me to set the stakes for the next leg, as I do currently in the separate trebles. Its just proving problematic finding the right command. I had hoped to use back_matched, but this is not working, not sure if its because its in test mode or because I am doing the tally as the market is settled. So tomorrow I will try and see if I can get back_matched saved as a var after the bets are placed and then use that at settled.

I suspect this will take me a long time to get right, I tend to pick things up and move them on for a while then when I get stuck I park them whilst I let my brain try to work out an alternative.

Sorry I can't be more help.

Kevin

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #6 on: 03 Feb 2024, 10:15 »
Ian

the only other thing I can think of for your request, if you have the spreadsheet and are going to be around for the racing anyway so you can update the results.

You can have a simple notepad entry with the bet selections in, use your spreadsheet to update the stakes after a result and then just edit the stake entry in notepad. Would that work.

I link my marketfeeder to a notepad entry on my onedrive, so when I am out and about if I see an extra bet to when I set it up, I can just edit the file on my phone, and as long as I have added the race to MFP on the morning it will add the bet.

The bit I am working on is slightly different in that I want to do a limited perm of horses into trebles, but am trying to get MFP to work out the next stakes without my intervention.

Kevin

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #7 on: 03 Feb 2024, 10:45 »
Hi
There is a complex laying treble trigger on the forum. It may give some help or ideas. Also in this trigger the selections are named in the constants. That method could be modified to take selection names from a text file.
  
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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #8 on: 03 Feb 2024, 13:29 »
Kevin,

I think your treble task could well be solved with the trigger
posted by MarkV
For now I may have to place my Lucky15's manually as I intended.
I'm trigger challenged. I've never been much good at designing them.
Let us know how you get on.
Ian


My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: LUCKY 15
« Reply #9 on: 03 Feb 2024, 13:31 »
Hi Mark, I will take a long look at that trigger you suggested.
Cheers
Ian
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

 

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