Author Topic: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?  (Read 3668 times)

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Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« on: 22 May 2018, 13:26 »
Looking through Forum posts and Trigger requests I notice a lot of interest in various progressive betting schemes designed to hopefully overcome negative expectation back and lay bets.

This technique has been shown to be a mirage, for example see:

https://www.roulette-bet.com/2015/02/mathematical-proof-that-progressions.html

It always struck me as odd that for example after a loss the stake would be increased irrespective of any other information.
Would such action make sense in any other financial/gaming transaction?

For example, I lose a Texas Holdem hand after being dealt two aces. 
My next hand I am dealt a pair of two's so I increase my bet simply because I lost the last bet: seems quite erroneous logic to me.

What do other forumites think about betting progressions?

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Re: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« Reply #1 on: 22 May 2018, 14:25 »
No system of progressive staking will compensate for a betting strategy that is not profitable at level stakes.  If you do possess such a strategy, then progressive staking should increase the profitability.  So since all of the popular casino and card games return a significant profit of 2-5% to the house, then you will only ever experience short term profit playing them.

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Re: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« Reply #2 on: 22 May 2018, 16:03 »
I agree with you, rubold.

It seems to my tiny brain that many on this forum are futilely looking for a way to manipulate staking progressions as some sort of magical way of overcoming Betfair's take and any market over-round.

That is, it appears there is a widely held belief that some signs and portents based on the prices and their rankings are significant and, if deciphered, will lead to profit.

Such ideas (Winning Without Thinking or Winning Without Knowledge) may be futile, better to study the particular area whether it be the past form of the horses or of the footballers and the like.

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Re: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« Reply #3 on: 23 May 2018, 07:54 »
With repeated bank withdrawals of initial overall fund, if the margins are good enough, then eventually busting out doesn't matter.

So I would only have to recover my initial say £100 one time over the period to be level. If I figured I could make and withdraw £100 a few times before a bust, and do that more times than I don't do it, then surely my staking plan works.

I am not using one, but I can see how it can work.

Obviously, the points made in previous posts above hold true in the vast majority of occasions.

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Re: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« Reply #4 on: 23 May 2018, 22:20 »
Larp,

I've never thought about it like that. I think you have made a valid point. Thks for that insight.

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Re: Mathematical Progressions, a mirage?
« Reply #5 on: 24 May 2018, 02:01 »
Hi Larp, pfc,

Everything turns on the phrase "... if the margins are good enough".

By this I take it that you mean if you have positive expectation bets then it follows that you can expect a positive outcome.

Agreed!

The problem arises for gamblers without a positive expectation who rely on some loss chasing progression to hopefully generate a profit.

Their strategy is based on hope rather than positive expectation.

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE