Author Topic: over-under-martingale  (Read 5642 times)

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over-under-martingale
« on: 19 Dec 2012, 15:43 »
Good morning everyone,

First of all, I apologize for my English (not my native language).

I understand very little programming MF and that is why I turn to the experience that you have.

Needed the help of this community for a Trigger that MF offers as an example the "over-under-martingale"

"marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/over-under-martingale/"

In the last 4 days I have tested this trigger, which can be profitable if implemented some protections according to the risk they intend to run.

The results obtained in these four days were:
44 Greens
5 Red

The big problem with this tigger, like all , is when we have negative results (because we are not present to avoid them).
Negative results can easily exceed the profits from the positives and lead to zero because our account assumes odds with responsibilities too high.

To be avoided at such quel trigger should have a protection with these results.

I will give a real example to better understand:
Napoles Game against Bologna 15/12/2012
16-Dez-12
Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 0.5 Goals  ----1º goal 10’  0-1
Odds---1,07   ***  Stake---25,00€     ***    Profit / loss    -1,75€


Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 1.5 Goals ---- 2º goal  50´ 1-1
Odds---1,08   ***  Stake---26,75€     ***    Profit / loss    -2,14€

Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 2.5 Goals ---- 3º goal   70´    2-1
Odds---1,28   ***  Stake---20,89€     ***    Profit / loss    -9,09€

Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 3.5 Goals  ----- 4º goal    86´       2-2
Odds---1,88   ***  Stake---36,98€     ***    Profit / loss    -32,54€

Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 4.5 Goals ----- 5º goal  89´   2-3
Odds---4,30   ***  Stake---65,00€     ***    Profit / loss    -214,50€

Betting against
Napoli x Bologna : > 5.5 Goals
Lost ---- without enough money to match> 5.5 goals 
Odds against were very high


This type of situation breaks easily with the funds that we may have available, or the lack of time to place a new bet.

What I wanted, if I could help was as follows.
The triggers should have the following conditions / variables beyond those that already exist:

1º Never enter the 1st over> 0.5 with an odd more than 1.20 (this value should be possible to change according to each strategy) that would prevent adverse situations in the market.

2º In the case of entering a bet with an odd resulting in a superior responsibility to 4 (this value should be possible to change according to the strategy of each) times the original stake at any point in the game,> 0.5 /> 1.5 / > 2.5 / .... /> 8.5, the tigger should do a stop loss, making a back.
example:
Initial stake € = 5;
Maximum liability = 20 €;
After the trigger to make the bet should be a condition or variable that make spread loss.
It is certainly not obvious that we would win this bet, but avoided large losses.

3º If the game reaches 8 goals, stop loss should be done (to date had no such situation);

4º And this I think is impossible to avoid, happens when one team scores a goal in the last minute / seconds, the bet is lost because there is no time for any reaction

If you could help greatly thanked.

Greetings to all,
Roy

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Re: over-under-martingale
« Reply #1 on: 19 Dec 2012, 17:22 »
Hi

Here are some suggestions.

Point 1
Add a Constant at the top of the trigger file. Name it, for example, 1st_max. Value: 1.21, Start with initial value
Add a condition to trigger Total Score = 0:
and Selection’s lay price is less than 1st_max
(the reason for using a Constant is because it can easily be changed for your strategies as you asked)

Points 2 and 3
I think you need to define your stop loss a bit more. For example, if liability will exceed 4 (the 4 should be a Constant like above so you can change it easily) x initial stake:
Distribute loss at best current price?
Or place a back bet as an order waiting to be matched, to what % loss? Or 0% loss?

Point 4
Perhaps make your own “full time” for the trigger. Example: close all positions at 85 minutes, but with a small buffer in case there is a goal at 85, you can close as soon as market is stable.

this topic may be of interest if you have not yet seen it:
http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/over-under-martingale/
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: over-under-martingale
« Reply #2 on: 19 Dec 2012, 20:45 »
hi
this one places bets at 1 goal in advance.

mcbee
Please read the following  disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: over-under-martingale
« Reply #3 on: 19 Dec 2012, 21:52 »
Thank you friends,
Good to know that we can find find people willing to help.  :)
I am extremely grateful
regards,
Rui

 

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