Author Topic: profitable strategy  (Read 13101 times)

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #30 on: 02 Jun 2019, 14:20 »
finally you understood the meaning of my topic, discussing strategy constructively by sharing your experiences.

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #31 on: 02 Jun 2019, 15:05 »



I am not talking about arbitrage, I am intresting to see how good the market odds is in predicting the "true odds", by simply placing lots of back bets for example the home team in the soccer market and check the net profit. In theory(fully efficient market) the the net profit should be around zero, but is it actually that?

I think this is an impotant issue, because it answer wheter the odds can be used to predict other markets.
1) if the answer is that the net profit is around zero, or better the ROI is around zero, then my conclusion is that the odds can be used in "formulas". In this case the market odds would be considered to be relaibile.
2) if the answer is that the ROI for example is +5% or -7%, then I conclude that this is an effect of variance or uncertainty.

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #32 on: 03 Jun 2019, 07:43 »
I don't know anything about time machine, but would it be possible for example:

1) place bet for fome team, in soccer match market, if back_book<101.5%
2) Repeat (1) for manny matches
3) Calculate ROI

This would be one way to check the relaibility for the odds and an estimate of variance. 


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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #33 on: 05 Jun 2019, 21:11 »
What do you think about "LayPro88" and "Laying by Ratch" staking plans?

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #34 on: 05 Jun 2019, 21:29 »
I've only seen the video on YouTube, I've never tried.  if you explain to me in detail the strategy, I will test it and if we can, we can build a solid strategy.

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #35 on: 18 Jun 2019, 21:09 »
I have been playing with a strategy for nearly a couple of weeks - I only make "value bets" in preoff market. I bet when I have an edge between 10-25% and all bets are flat. I know my sample size is small, but I have faith  :). Right now my ROI is around 15% (see attached graph).

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #36 on: 18 Jun 2019, 22:05 »
if you tell me, even in private, the selection strategy will launch it backtest on a sample of 1000 games

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #37 on: 18 Jun 2019, 22:18 »
Sorrry you need external input, in a couple of months i will have 1000 bets. 

You could do back testing the fotboll odds for example by betting home team and see what ROI you got, if ROI is around zero then the odds is "reliable" (and that could be a good thing).

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #38 on: 18 Jun 2019, 22:28 »
I have a database with all the matches played in 2019 with bet365 odds.
if you tell me the range of the odds to be taken into consideration, I launch a query on the fly to calculate your ROI

home or away win?

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Re: profitable strategy
« Reply #39 on: 18 Jun 2019, 23:08 »
I have a database with all the matches played in 2019 with bet365 odds.
if you tell me the range of the odds to be taken into consideration, I launch a query on the fly to calculate your ROI

home or away win?
Bet365 have a margin and bookies odds varies, I think the highest odds would be better in that case (maybe from oddportal.com). If you would betting using all matches with bet365 you would in theory end up with an ROI corrsponding to bet365 margin (maybe ROI=-7%).

But what I mean is that if you would like to use the betfair odds in your calculation, then its good to know if they are reliable. I think thay are (or they would be so in theory anyway if the market is efficient) but I can't know for sure. 

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE