Author Topic: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +  (Read 7070 times)

Tags:
  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
+ Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« on: 15 Aug 2016, 14:14 »
hi everyone... ive been noticing something curious on the betting ladder and was wondering if someone could explain whats going on please.

This only occurs on low liquidity games as more money in play overrides it. The market at this point chooses its own direction and so would be less easy to manipulate by a single player.

What i see on the betting ladder is something like:

Back odds @4 with £1.96 / Lay odds @36 with £1.96 sitting there

... then the sequence goes from lay odds @36 drops down to something like lay @5.6 and then back up again to @36 ... all the time theres this £1.96 sitting there!. Theres been different odds involved but the main theme is holding a position where the lay odds are separated from the back odds with a very large margin between them, way too high for a normal game.

>Is there some form of technique thats using two websites playing off each other or something?

>Whats the advantage of separating the lay odds from the back odds to such a degree? (it makes it impossible to back, and for the lay odds to drop below it over time and visa versa)

>When you see lay odds @36 does that mean someone has to back bet it @36 for it to move?

Thanks for any advice or explanation. It will be interesting to see what people think.

All the best, good gaming  :)

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #1 on: 15 Aug 2016, 15:04 »
~ For those of you who dont know... you can find the betting ladder by clicking on the market name box to the left of the trend line

  • All members
  • Posts: 3597
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #2 on: 15 Aug 2016, 20:17 »
Hi
I think you are seeing Betfair's cross-matching virtual bets, they are much easier to see in illiquid markets. In the attached screenshot the top shows a market with no liquidity. I place a £10 back bet as indicated, you can see Betfair's cross-matching virtual money appearing as circled in purple. To make things even more complicated, Betfair use this cross-matching not only across selections in a book, but also across related markets as well, e.g. CS markets will have cross-matching virtual "liquidity" from OU markets and vice-versa etc.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #3 on: 16 Aug 2016, 01:04 »
Thanks MarkV, ahh so are you saying bets happening in "match play" will effect odds in "under/over odds" too? (sorry if thats sounds nieve)

Another observation of the same thing. Lay bouncing from 7.6 to 4.2... with a large margin between back bet and lay bets

https://www.dropbox.com/s/vz2tzfosn9rljsf/this.gif?dl=0


  • All members
  • Posts: 3597
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #4 on: 16 Aug 2016, 07:51 »
Hi
Cross-matching happens across related markets, e.g. where you would looks for arbitrages, but Betfair's cross-matching has removed most of the opportunities to find such arbs.

Thanks for posting your video. It looks to me like a bot running at a very slow refresh rate, and posting unmatched bets at a very wide margin. The price looks to be x ticks above or below last traded price or another benchmark price. If any of their bets gets matched, they are in a very good green-up position. Their amounts are below the minimum so I'm not sure if they are visible in the Befair £2 view. From what I saw it looks like another bot follows behind it, but not in front. As long as the bet is at the best price they will keep it there hoping it will get matched. Anyway, those are my thoughts.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #5 on: 16 Aug 2016, 10:59 »
Interesting... I had feeling it was someone programming a trigger/bot. They turn up a lot throughout the entire day.

Would you be up for explain further what you mean by "good green position" please. I know what greening is, but i cant see the advantage of keeping a wide margin where the lay is so much higher than the back. If their lay bets are matched ... how could it ever green?

Btw, the odds do turn up on market feeder and betfair. Its why im having difficulty greening some markets, where they would normally dip down under back ect over time.

///

Also checking other betting sites, the odds transfer onto those too. So was wondering if people knew of a 2 website stratergy.

Ive looked at betfair and betdaq odds, and sometimes see a greening opportunity. But only by 1-2 pips. Perhaps backing one website and laying on the other. Youd also need a big bet to make any profit -commission.

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #6 on: 16 Aug 2016, 11:18 »
ahh... hmm... so in the spirit of trying to work this out, perhaps:

Back bet on a related market, and then lay on another?.

Something like: so say back betting on three positions "correct score 1.1, 0.2, 2.0" @ 15 odds ... once matched, swap lay price on "Over 1.5 Goals" from 7.6 to 4.9 hoping lay gets matched

so if final score:
0-0 get the lay @ 4.9
0-1 get the lay @ 4.9
1-0 get the lay @ 4.9

with
1-1 get the back @ 15 *must be matched
0-2 get the back @ 15 *must be matched
2-0 get the back @ 15 *must be matched

= green

I could be wrong!, and barking up wrong tree of course lol  ;D

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #7 on: 16 Aug 2016, 11:53 »
I am wrong... please ignore above. Or remove to avoid confusing others thanks

  • All members
  • Posts: 3597
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #8 on: 17 Aug 2016, 06:47 »
Interesting... I had feeling it was someone programming a trigger/bot. They turn up a lot throughout the entire day.

Would you be up for explain further what you mean by "good green position" please. I know what greening is, but i cant see the advantage of keeping a wide margin where the lay is so much higher than the back. If their lay bets are matched ... how could it ever green?

Btw, the odds do turn up on market feeder and betfair. Its why im having difficulty greening some markets, where they would normally dip down under back ect over time.

///

Also checking other betting sites, the odds transfer onto those too. So was wondering if people knew of a 2 website stratergy.

Ive looked at betfair and betdaq odds, and sometimes see a greening opportunity. But only by 1-2 pips. Perhaps backing one website and laying on the other. Youd also need a big bet to make any profit -commission.

Hi
In your video, the "bot" is a back bet at a price of 7.6 for an amount of 1.97. It appears on the lay side of the book as an unmatched bet (someone has to lay £1.97 @ 7.6 to match it). All the time the bot is at the best lay price, it will keep it at that price hoping to be matched. If someone lays at 7.6 and matches it, they can green-up (hedge) for a good profit.

This is typical of trading a market with big gaps between best back and lay price. If you want to hedge in these markets, rather than waiting for the price to come down, it might be better if you offered a price and see if it gets matched, otherwise you could wait forever.

This example trigger demonstrates how the bot in question is probably working, and you could use the same principle for your hedging in gappy markets?
http://marketfeederpro.com/learn/triggers/best-opposite-price/

   
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #9 on: 17 Aug 2016, 19:21 »
Thanks for your reply, and time spent. Kind of you.

I'll look into what you say and ponder on it ...  :)

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #10 on: 19 Aug 2016, 09:49 »
Dear MarkV... if its ok, can let me know if ive got this right please.

Example odds: back 2.15 / lay 7.6 ... low liquidity game

“bot” places unmatched back bet £1.97 @ 7.6. It will appear in everyone elses screen on the lay side as 1.97 sitting there. Someone has to lay £1.97 @ 7.6 to match it... so soon as it is matched it closes out to green up at the best lay price available. Correct so far?

...

So then I could play this too and undercut this price?. If i saw this, and had put in an unmatched back bet of my own at 5 for £2, the odds would now look like back 2.15 / lay 5 instead ???

... sorry i know this must be fundamental to you now, but im finding this interesting.

  • All members
  • Posts: 3597
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #11 on: 19 Aug 2016, 17:13 »
Hi
Yes you've got it right, and yes you can.

It is the basis of a market forming, people or bots are going to ask high back prices (that appear as unmatched on the lay side) and offer low lay prices (that appear as unmatched on the back side). The gap gets smaller as people or bots offer better prices, until the gap is only 1 tick and the market is formed.

You can do this yourself, undercutting that price, but don't be surprised to see your price undercut by another bot.

Have a look at how the odds move in a Greyhound market from about 7 minutes before the off, you will see lots of bots doing this.

If it's a bot, it will usually cancel the bet if the bot's price is undercut and place it again at the new odds, but another reason why money might be there waiting is to be early in the queue for hedging etc. e.g. if you lay at 1.01, or 1.02 well in advance, you are at the front of the queue and there will always be lots of money coming in at those prices.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • All members
  • Posts: 87
  • "Good luck in your Gaming"
Re: + Something Wierd Going On With The Odds +
« Reply #12 on: 19 Aug 2016, 17:54 »
Thanks MarkV for explaining this in detail... I havent thought of it that way.

Thanks for all the help - all the best, and good fortune

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE