The latest stats on my system (to 17 March, the day before I went on hols) are:
1,696 bets
Strike Rate 25.0%
Av Odds $4.75
which is POT of 18.8% (still good).
So there has been a deterioration in POT from my initial post, but still most satisfactory.
A program I downloaded from another site many years ago gives me stats on my likelihood of success over the long term, and it has saved me many times from going off onto systems that had no chance from the start.
On the figures above, it calculates that I will have 11,000 bets over a twelve month period, and therefore my current chance of bankruptcy is still a high 34%, which is why I won't increase my bets until I am convinced I have a reasonable chance of long term success. As time goes on, and if the results remain about the same, that bankruptcy % will fall.
The question is always "will the current trends continue?" and that is why I want at least 5,000 bets before I can say I have a chance.
The program also calculates that I can expect a longest winning streak of 8, and a longest losing streak of 33. Now that last figure is the one I always focus on, as 33 losing bets in a row would have me reaching for a suicide pill.
I will never follow a loss recovery plan, as I have learnt from past experience that even the best system will at some stage suffer from a prolonged losing sequence, and even with stop/loss provisions, if the losing sequences fall in a particular order, losses can be massive. Even with a high strike rate, loss sequences can be sizeable, and I defy anyone who faces a "next bet" of $5,000 to recover an accumulated loss of $2,000 to do so without flinching or opting out because you can't afford to potentially lose that much on one bet when you have already lost $2,000.
I was hoping to try out RP's sequential staking plan, but I only have two computers, and one of those runs in test mode for statistical reasons, and the other runs in real mode for this current system.
I was also hoping one of the gurus in the forum would design a trigger around RP's plan, but it seems the new trigger request format will now apply, and I might have to make a formal request, which I have no problem with, just time in working out exactly how I want it to work.
Once again, thanks for your input, and I will keep you informed as the system progresses.
I have 27 bets today, and a massive day tomorrow, as it is one of Australia's big race days.
bobh