Author Topic: Staking Plans  (Read 20605 times)

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #15 on: 11 Mar 2014, 05:18 »
Hi Bobh,
I now recall the name of the above plan "The Endless Staking Plan" which I may have read in a punting book in Australia half a lifetime ago when computers were things that banks had. I also recall having someone write a program for it years later but that was many computers ago and now residing in hard drive heaven. Your percentage idea would probably work and may have been the way I went back then.
Let's see.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #16 on: 27 Mar 2014, 15:22 »
How about doing a test with small amount to check the outcome. Has someone tried this out already?
Gambling is a lifestyle.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #17 on: 01 Apr 2014, 14:01 »
MFP Colleagues,

You have all helped me at various times in my techno-phobe struggles, and I now seek your sage advice on a suitable staking plan.

There are a range of staking plans on the site, and each one has its strengths and weaknesses, depending on the selection method and its success.

I have been having a good run with a horse racing selection method on Australian races where my existing staking plan is simply 0.5% of my current bank. Simple but effective, but I would like to know if you think I can do better with a different staking plan.

Results of the selection method are as follows (actual bets, not testing):

1,070 bets over 35 days (to date) for 281 winners = strike rate 26.3%
Average win odds $4.77 for a POT of 25.2%.

Before I claim this as a winning system, I estimate I need at least another 4,000 bets, and a software program I run each day suggests there is still a 15% chance of bankruptcy, but that of course means an 85% chance of it being very profitable.

It averages around 30 bets a day, but some days might be 15 bets and others (mainly Saturdays) it might be 60 bets.

Some races have up to three selections, but most races there is only one selection.

Loss recovery staking plans are definitely not acceptable. I've tried them and my heart is not strong enough!

Can any of you suggest the most suitable staking plan for this enjoyable and profitable (so far) system.

I realise I could just be having a great run at present, and it could go bad at any time, but I want to maximise my luck while I can.

Thanks in advance,

bobh

Hi bobh,

I hope you had a good holiday!

I have been looking at staking plans my self and MarkV has been helping me put a trigger together.

My return rate is also around the 25/26% rate and i would like to make a suggestion to you that you simply use 5% of your bank for each bet compounded.

I calculate that, as per your original post, your return would have been £33,656 from a starting bank of £100.  Of course you can set the % lower if you're not confident in the strike rate being maintained.

If your strike rate remains reasonably constant over a reasonable length of time it doesn't matter how long the losing streak is.  The two key parameters are strike rate and average win odds.

The beauty is that all you're really risking is £100.

KR

TB

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #18 on: 01 Apr 2014, 17:56 »
Hi bobh, that's very encouraging after 1000+ but you're quite right to leave the champagne on ice for a few thousand more bets...

I think your 0.5% of bank is perfect too, I use 0.55% of bank, I have in the past gone up to 3% and although there are great profit days the down days on a high percentage staking plan are hard to take, I think the 5% suggested above is way too high, a losing run would wipe half of your bank out in no time...

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #19 on: 02 Apr 2014, 13:28 »
Hi bobh, that's very encouraging after 1000+ but you're quite right to leave the champagne on ice for a few thousand more bets...

I think your 0.5% of bank is perfect too, I use 0.55% of bank, I have in the past gone up to 3% and although there are great profit days the down days on a high percentage staking plan are hard to take, I think the 5% suggested above is way too high, a losing run would wipe half of your bank out in no time...

I appreciate your viewpoint about having your bank wiped out but if you're working to a 26.3% success ratio it doesn't matter in the long run.  Of course if that dips then it's a different scenario.

Working on the percentages the following table gives you an indication why i believe being a bit more adventurous pays off.

% of bank      Return over 1070 races

0.5                £2,574
1                   £5,976
2                 £23,834
3                 £64,656
4               £121,396
5               £160,218
6               £150,721

This assumes a starting bank of £1,000.  An av Betfair starting price of 4.7.  And a 26.3% success rate over 1070 races.

As you can see there is an optimum % of bank (it's actually around 5.3) for a strike rate of 26.3 and an av BSP of 4.7.  That figure changes when the other variables change.

So my very humble advice is work out your strike rate (and i do agree with your comment about a couple of thousand extra bets), work out your av BSP and go from there.

KR

TB


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #20 on: 02 Apr 2014, 15:31 »
Hi TB, yes, I appreciate your table based on strike rate % but in the real world, it would be very conceivable to have a losing run of 15 bets and that would wipe out more than 50% of the bank using 5% stakes, the mental anguish this causes is very hard to bear and will often result in stakes being reduced out of fear. I've been there and personally feel much happier with smaller ups and downs, it's better for my health!

But good luck to you if you have nerves of steel and a bank balance to match...  ;)

Demon

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #21 on: 02 Apr 2014, 20:50 »
Hi Demon,

I won't lie, it's all theory to date.  The mathematical fact is if you have a strike rate as bobh has (and it remains at that rate for another couple of thousand races) at that average BSP then it can't fail.

Even if you have 15 or 21 losers (as I believe Bobh has) it doesn't matter in the long run.  In fact if he starts with £100 (10% of his proposed bank) he'll still be on top after a month or two.

But in fairness, he will also get there with a lower % bet but it would just take a little longer.

TB   

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #22 on: 03 Apr 2014, 04:47 »
Folks,

I have just walked through the door from my holiday and, of course, the first thing I click on (after checking through the 350 email backlog), is to this site - talk about an addiction!

Thanks for all your advice.

I will read through them all over the next 24 hours and respond asap.

bobh


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #23 on: 04 Apr 2014, 01:32 »
The latest stats on my system (to 17 March, the day before I went on hols) are:

1,696 bets
Strike Rate 25.0%
Av Odds $4.75
which is POT of 18.8% (still good).

So there has been a deterioration in POT from my initial post, but still most satisfactory.

A program I downloaded from another site many years ago gives me stats on my likelihood of success over the long term, and it has saved me many times from going off onto systems that had no chance from the start.

On the figures above, it calculates that I will have 11,000 bets over a twelve month period, and therefore my current chance of bankruptcy is still a high 34%, which is why I won't increase my bets until I am convinced I have a reasonable chance of long term success. As time goes on, and if the results remain about the same, that bankruptcy % will fall.

The question is always "will the current trends continue?" and that is why I want at least 5,000 bets before I can say I have a chance.

The program also calculates that I can expect a longest winning streak of 8, and a longest losing streak of 33. Now that last figure is the one I always focus on, as 33 losing bets in a row would have me reaching for a suicide pill.

I will never follow a loss recovery plan, as I have learnt from past experience that even the best system will at some stage suffer from a prolonged losing sequence, and even with stop/loss provisions, if the losing sequences fall in a particular order, losses can be massive. Even with a high strike rate, loss sequences can be sizeable, and I defy anyone who faces a "next bet" of $5,000 to recover an accumulated loss of $2,000 to do so without flinching or opting out because you can't afford to potentially lose that much on one bet when you have already lost $2,000.

I was hoping to try out RP's sequential staking plan, but I only have two computers, and one of those runs in test mode for statistical reasons, and the other runs in real mode for this current system.

I was also hoping one of the gurus in the forum would design a trigger around RP's plan, but it seems the new trigger request format will now apply, and I might have to make a formal request, which I have no problem with, just time in working out exactly how I want it to work.

Once again, thanks for your input, and I will keep you informed as the system progresses.

I have 27 bets today, and a massive day tomorrow, as it is one of Australia's big race days.

bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #24 on: 04 Apr 2014, 08:37 »
With the latest MFP you can run multiple instances of MFP on one machine by using different profiles. I am currently running 2 profiles without issues. One betting on horse racing at SP and another one betting on horse racing and many other sports.

So the one machine running live, can also run another profile in test mode without any interference.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #25 on: 19 Apr 2014, 22:41 »
I now have been running my system for 72 days, so thought I would give an update on its success/failure.

It is still profitable, with a strike rate of 24% at average odds of $4.81. This is a POT of 15.6%. At this stage, it seems to have settled around these figures.

It has fallen from my original posts, but is still satisfactory.

My software program tells me that with a betting bank of $3,000 and a stake of 0.20% (ie $6.00), I have a 24.9% chance of bankruptcy, and a 67.3% chance of profits exceeding $5,000 over 11,000 bets.

So far, I have had just over 2,000 bets, which indicates over 12 months I will have around 10,500 bets (with no holiday breaks!).

These figures are BEFORE Betfair commission, and that will make quite a difference to the end results.

Thank you to those who have tried to assist with a staking plan. I have not yet asked for MarkV or Mcbee to design RacePro's plan, as I have wanted to see if the results remained consistent before I wasted anyone's time, but I think I might request their assistance in the next day or so.

To 1oser, I tried to set up a separate profile but almost immediately received an "abnormal termination" when I ran the separate systems, so stopped trying. It's almost always something I do, as I'm not very tech savvy, so please don't concern yourself too much on my behalf. But thanks for trying to assist.

Updates from time to time...........

bobh


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #26 on: 25 Apr 2014, 23:58 »
Hi bobh et al,
A couple of words of warning. Staking plans may only enhance the profits made over profitable level stake betting. This we have mentioned before. Those roi's you are talking about seem very high and should be treated with extreme caution. Most pros I have met treat their punting like any other business in that what matters is how the annual report sheet looks. Several good punters I know have gone on for too long only to find their system going against them and losing in the process. Some professional betting teams who turnover 100's of millions of dollars annually have been successful for multiple years but end up losing as value disappears. The dynamics of racing is forever changing.
Probably the best advice one could follow is to regularly withdraw profits and enjoy them and start over with a new betting bank as greed will get almost everyone over time. As Rothschild once said "You can't go broke taking a profit"
Sounds good from what I've read.
Good luck
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #27 on: 10 May 2014, 22:24 »
While I am waiting for the Endless Staking Plan trigger to be finalised by mcbee (see thread Endless Staking Plan under Triggers), I thought I would keep you up to date on the results of my selection method, which started this thread.

POT continues to fall slowly, but profit continues to rise slowly.

After 93 days, bets total 2,651 at a strike rate of 23.4%. POT (as of yesterday) stands at 13.5%. Average odds of winners is $4.85.

In dollar terms for $1 unit, this equates to 620 winners and profit of $357.86. Annualising this indicates profit of $3,842 (for $1 unit), so if the slow decline in strike rate and POT stops at some stage, it still has potential.

I am presently waiting for the endless staking plan trigger to be finalised by mcbee so I can test whether it enhances the system or not.

Thank you to all of the forum members who have offered advice and/or encouragement.

bobh

 

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