Author Topic: Staking Plans  (Read 20607 times)

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Staking Plans
« on: 23 Feb 2014, 01:10 »
MFP Colleagues,

You have all helped me at various times in my techno-phobe struggles, and I now seek your sage advice on a suitable staking plan.

There are a range of staking plans on the site, and each one has its strengths and weaknesses, depending on the selection method and its success.

I have been having a good run with a horse racing selection method on Australian races where my existing staking plan is simply 0.5% of my current bank. Simple but effective, but I would like to know if you think I can do better with a different staking plan.

Results of the selection method are as follows (actual bets, not testing):

1,070 bets over 35 days (to date) for 281 winners = strike rate 26.3%
Average win odds $4.77 for a POT of 25.2%.

Before I claim this as a winning system, I estimate I need at least another 4,000 bets, and a software program I run each day suggests there is still a 15% chance of bankruptcy, but that of course means an 85% chance of it being very profitable.

It averages around 30 bets a day, but some days might be 15 bets and others (mainly Saturdays) it might be 60 bets.

Some races have up to three selections, but most races there is only one selection.

Loss recovery staking plans are definitely not acceptable. I've tried them and my heart is not strong enough!

Can any of you suggest the most suitable staking plan for this enjoyable and profitable (so far) system.

I realise I could just be having a great run at present, and it could go bad at any time, but I want to maximise my luck while I can.

Thanks in advance,

bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #1 on: 23 Feb 2014, 09:13 »
http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/staking-plans-can-help-you-to-win/

Hi Bobh,
Nice to hear someone has a winning system.
If you copy and paste the above link into your browser it will direct you to a
post I made some time ago.
I have used that one with some success whilst staying in Australia several years ago.
Another one to consider is to bet 10% higher than your previous bet and when a winner comes along retreat back the number of bets equivalent to the winner's odds
example:
£2, 2.2, 2.4, 2.6, 2.9, (3.2 winner) odds 4.00 = 3/1 next bet 2.4.
I spent many years a long long time ago, researching staking plans and have concluded that they can only embellish efforts that win at level stakes.

The above two will give you a good run for your money. The essential thing to keep in mind is what the Americans call the "tap out" which you referred to as 15% bankruptcy and your software can check that for both staking plans.
I wish you the best in your efforts and keep us posted on your findings.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #2 on: 24 Feb 2014, 22:59 »
Thanks Rp,

I will have a look at that progression and see how it goes.

If the system continues to be profitable at level stakes, I will post results weekly.

If not, I will disappear again!

bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #3 on: 26 Feb 2014, 11:53 »
hi bobh
your strike rate looks ok, if you get a a few winners in 6 bets then this staking plan would help.
you do not risk more than you would normaly as it uses any profit to increase the profit.
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/staking-plans/back-multi-link-doubles/


mcbee
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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #4 on: 01 Mar 2014, 01:24 »
Hi again Mcbee,

Thanks for that pointer. I had a look at that plan and I think it will suit me just fine.

I decided to try it out in test mode yesterday with a bank of $1000 and an initial bet of 0.50% (ie $5.00).

I think there might be an incorrect formula in the trigger, as my first test bets, 2 in the first race, were $30.00 on both (ie $60.00 outlay). That horrified me enough to stop for the afternoon until I could get a chance to look at the formulae in more detail. But I can't work out where I should alter the formula and in which trigger.

Would it be possible for you to look at the formulae and see if there is an error?

Thanks in advance,

Bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #5 on: 08 Mar 2014, 12:18 »
hi
there was a problem with the end of cycle calculations, i have altered that and added a constant for you to set the start bank amount.

please use test mode until you are happy with your settings


mcbee


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #6 on: 08 Mar 2014, 22:42 »
Thank you, my forum friend.

Your help on this forum is just so much appreciated by oldies like me.

Bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #7 on: 09 Mar 2014, 12:52 »
Hi again McGee.

Could I ask that you check your constant ba please, as the trigger "setting starting bank" refers to bsa in its formula.

Is that a typo?

Bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #8 on: 09 Mar 2014, 13:09 »
Is that "Me and Bobh McGee" ?  :)
Bobh, Did you have a chance to look at either of the staking plans I suggested above?
I would be willing to check how your bets would have gone if you wanted to post your win/lose and odds record of all your recorded bets.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #9 on: 10 Mar 2014, 00:04 »
Oh dear, I did have a bad day didn't I!

My only excuse is that I had been out to lunch, so was feeling rather "mellow" at the time I wrote my latest message.

Sorry for the misspelling mcbee!

And I meant to say "sba" not "bsa" in the typo check.

RP, I keep all records on "the system", but only in day summary form (ie no. of bets, outlay, return, profit), and it had a few days of bad results just after my original email, but the last few days have been quite good. Nevertheless, it is currently showing a strike rate of 24.8% at average odds of $4.77 and a POT of 18.6%, which means that chance of bankruptcy over a 12 month period has risen to over 30%.

Over 50 days betting it has had 1,506 bets (not betting every day).

So the results to date are not as good as I had hoped, but still better than a lot of "dry gullies" I have been up over the years, and if I can achieve a POT of 18% over 12 months, I will be ecstatic.

I still believe I need at least 5,000 races to show if it is worth while pursuing.

Unfortunately, I can't send you the bet details, as some have been in test mode and some have been in real mode. I haven't kept them "line by line". The longest losing streak has been 21.

I am interested in your plan, but I'm not savvy enough to design a trigger to test it in MFP.

The mcbee plan looks interesting if I can get it working - no luck so far!

I can't "back check" either strategy for the reason given above.

All in all, I will persist (real dollars today!).

I thank you for your interest, and will let you know how it is progressing from time to time.

bobh


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #10 on: 10 Mar 2014, 03:30 »
G'day again,

Please ignore my queries, mcbee!

I re-checked the trigger and realised I had inadvertently changed a vital condition regarding the starting bank, and it is now working.

I will see how it tests this afternoon.

Regards,

bobh


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #11 on: 10 Mar 2014, 23:00 »
Folks,

In my quest for a staking plan to enhance my selection system, RacePro and mcbee provided me with a couple of examples, which I have been keen to try.

I finally got the mcbee plan to work yesterday, but quickly discovered that it did not suit the way the results fell.

For example a longish losing streak just after a sizeable win will very quickly get rid of the profits. I had two good winners in a row (one was at $12.50), and a sizeable profit, then had a losing streak of 10, and finished up having a losing day (test mode only, so no real damage done). It may be different with a longer cycle, but my existing strategy of a simple percentage of bank (0.5%) showed a satisfactory profit. 

So now I think I would like to try RacePro's strategy while I continue to follow the mcbee plan, mainly because it is a gentle progression when losing and maintains profits when winning.

Unfortunately, it's not in trigger form, and I am not skilled enough to design it.

So would it be possible for mcbee or Markv (or any other kind soul) if they could create RP's staking plan for me if possible please? If it is possible, I have a slight enhancement I would like to introduce, but the basic trigger will suffice initially.

'twould be much appreciated, but no great urgency as I am taking a fortnight's holiday from next week.

BTW, after yesterday, I'm currently running at strike rate 24.8%, ave odds of $4.79 and POT of 19.0% after 1,526 bets.

bobh


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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #12 on: 10 Mar 2014, 23:43 »
That's at level stakes and before Betfair commission.

bobh

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #13 on: 11 Mar 2014, 00:41 »
http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/staking-plans-can-help-you-to-win/

Hi,
If someone does help Bobh with a trigger then an important rule for either staking plan is once a bet wins then go back the number of bets equivalent to the winners odds
(back_price - 1)
eg:
9 bets @ £2
8 bets @ £3
7 bets @ £4
6 bets @ £5   
5 bets @ £6
4 bets @ £7
3 bets @ £8
2 bets @ £9
1 bet   @ £10

2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,4,4,4,5,5,5 winner @ 4.00 = 3/1 go back three bets, so next bet is last of the "4" bets.
If an overall profit is made on the sequence then go back to first bet (2).
If the sequence goes all the way to bet number 45 then start over. If all that makes sense. If the method selection has any merit it should operate successfully within that 45 race sequence. (The same rules apply for the 10% increase plan)
I had used the 45 bet one several years ago with some success, however I later became involved with exotic betting, and staking plans were out. I am not in favour of staking plans nowadays and would not recommend people get involved with them. The only reason I posted these ones is that there are some people out there that truly believe in them as I once did when I was a win bettor on horse racing many years ago. These were the best I had encountered over a couple of decades of checking systems against staking.
My personal view is that a good staking plan may help to improve the profitability of a system that already wins at level stake bets. It will not turn a level stake losing system into a winner.
Good luck finding someone to help with a program for it and would be
interested to hear of your results
cheers
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Staking Plans
« Reply #14 on: 11 Mar 2014, 04:51 »
Thanks RP,

You're spending a bit of time on my query, which I appreciate.

I had already tried to build the trigger with the enhancement you mentioned above re back stepping by a winner's odds. It seems to me that your progression is rather like the universal staking plan available as a trigger already. But I'm not sure how to extend it to 45 bets, so will wait to see if the MFP geniuses (genii) from the forum can assist.

I also thought I would like to make the first bet in the series as a percentage of the starting bank. In other words, if the original bank was $1000, my starting bet would be $5.00. If the series progresses and was completed with a profit of (say) $20, the new bank would be $1020. I would start the next series with a bet of 1020 * 0.005 = $5.10, and so on.

I also think there will be a complication in the series as sometimes there is more than one selection in a race.

Anyway, it is just a thought.

bobh

 

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