Author Topic: Successful Strategies  (Read 21224 times)

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Successful Strategies
« on: 31 Jul 2017, 17:36 »
I was just wondering how many people on here have discovered a successful, long term, triggered strategy.

I have been using MF for 10 years now and many times I have come close, or thought I had cracked it......but finally I have found something that works on the horses 😀😀

We see lots of posts about people trying but not many success stories.

So how your luck eh??

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #1 on: 05 Aug 2017, 16:17 »
Hi Wehey,

I'm glad you have found something that works for you.

As you probably know being a long-term bettor, online exchange users tend to either keep silence about what has earned them profit or bash each other's strategies as "inconsistent" or "failing in the long term".

I am currently experimenting with a bit of neural network that I'm writing to figure out the size of each next bet depending on the previous win/lose history, and I find it fun, although I wouldn't put all my money on it.

I'm sure other users have something to share too, but I'm not so sure they are willing to do so.
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #2 on: 05 Aug 2017, 16:42 »
Hi Oxa,
Thanks for sharing.
I'm not looking for info on particular strategies, just interested in how everyone's getting on 😀

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #3 on: 26 Mar 2018, 10:51 »

It's a great read, it's a very good one.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #4 on: 31 Mar 2018, 00:17 »
Noticed this thread and decided to post my thoughts:
I have been trying with automation on and off for 10 years.Tried various software types (even had a coder develop for me once-for more money than I care to think about :) ) and this has given me a good feel (and hard lessons) for strengths and weaknesses for the subscription based software iterations out there. I love the challenge of automation but my word it is hard :o . I would love to have more time to learn to code myself but in the absence of that (especially difficult in in middle age) MF Pro is certainly the most versatile software I have found. I think that the line between success and failure is very fine indeed and I probably have thrown systems away over the years that potentially could have been profitable.The last year or two I have focused on the manual side more which ironically has given me a better understanding of what to try in automation.I have started to get a few +10% (on stake) returns on a few manual trades here and there and this has been immensely satisfying. Also,learning about yourself when facing a red screen is one of the most interesting opportunities for self awareness that I think one can experience. Cutting losses and letting profits run is an art form but that is a very big key as most of the Pro's will tell you. I think I have found an automated punting system that could be successful (over the last few months anyway) but time will tell. I find that automated trading pattern , for me anyway, is usually small win -small win- small win-big loss. This is usually due, in part, to those unforeseen circumstances that happen when your target market range is too wide. If I get time, I will look to refine areas of opportunity to a much smaller domain. This is only my experience and surely differs from a lot of others but this game is a good challenge and one I have thoroughly enjoyed-thanks to the welldone team for providing me with the opportunity to pursue the holy grail :) All the best to you all.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #5 on: 31 Mar 2018, 10:52 »
Well said mcgoo!
Ditto to "learning about yourself when facing a red screen is one of the most interesting opportunities for self awareness that I think one can experience".
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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #6 on: 04 May 2018, 17:22 »
Sorry for my lack of responses to pm's about this thread.
For some reason I haven't been getting email notifications..

Well it's been 10 months since I started the thread and I'm please to say that it's still working well.

It had a bit of a stumble around September last year and I had to do some tweaking to the triggers, but after a month it started to pick up again and has been steaming ahead ever since.


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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #7 on: 05 May 2018, 20:35 »
Hello guys!

This is a great discussion! I think Mcgoo touched in a very important point about this whole thing called sports trading: the possibility to grow the level of your consciousness as human being. 

Wehey, are you interested in share your strategy with us?

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #8 on: 07 May 2018, 09:45 »
Wehey, are you interested in share your strategy with us?

ha ha....no sorry.
Its taken me over 10 years of blood, sweat and tears to finally find something that works.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #9 on: 08 Jun 2018, 03:05 »
im part time  - long time battler too.
I started in forex trading which is the same beast just a different flavor.

i like auto trading in principle as unless the hours of manual trading pays more than my day job i dont see the point.
Triggered betting is the holy grail if we can find sustained results .

with forex. i manual traded and wrote/ bisected and sold bots also. i found what worked for a period, weeks / years
i imaging the same thing happens in this realm..

for instance lay pro 88 - possibly when it was thought up it hit 88% and the system made a profit. then perhaps the market changes - 3rd favs won slightly more, the average odds crept up??? then the margin is gone and people chase the next holy grail.

im glad some make it and im sure its only after long periods of reviewing systems / results and throw in a touch of luck to find a long term profitable edge.

if anyone reads this is i suggest "the staking machine" to evaluate potential systems. i have no affiliation i just think with market feeder its all you need.

---------
a thought on martingale. (i can hear the sneering)
1. take a system with a one off worst loosing streak of under 10.
2. look to recover all losses since the last win in the next bet. (sound familiar)
why not bet to a small % so even after 10x compounding losses the bank can sustain the next bet? eg a 1% liability

negatives:
long runs happen - sure, work backwards from the WORST case of losses - "ELS", to make sure the 11th bet can be made.
low % bets equal low return on banks - yes but amusing the bank can always handle the max run of losses there will always be a profit?

positives:
this system (staking) should be able to be triggered so return isn't reflective of hours committed.
the chosen system isnt important

if banks pays 3% PA on deposits or a mortgage loan may pay 8%, anything better here is good.
10% ROI p/a is 0.83% per month, surly we can produce 5% p/m return which equate to a good investment?

thoughts?

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #10 on: 23 Jan 2019, 15:32 »
I only want to share that i also have created one profitable trigger that give me around 20-30 units every month. The problem its my unit its very small due to poor liquidity and my staking plan, but i am happy with that and i prefere to be safe in all the moment. Now my objetive its if i was able to create one, why not i can create a  second one, and if that happend more or less i will be able to live thanks to the trigger. 
Anyway i enjoy in the way and also i was able to create my own software and now with time machine thats its so incredible i hope be again successful.

Please lets active this post, i think its very interesting.


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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #11 on: 24 Jan 2019, 22:40 »
Great Thread!!!

Been involved with racing all my life, seen it all !!!

I remember as a kid gettin my uncle to put a dollar on what ever i thought was a good chance that day.

My eternal chase to find the elusive winner from then on has never dulled, going on 40 odd years now lolo

The feeling as your selection passes that post first never seems to get old, some compare it to s ...  well all that feels good lolo

I have been lucky enough to work in the industry and have been very lucky to frequent my local race track for many years befriending a lot of the local identities, jockeys and pro punters.

The game is a business and nothing else, these guys all have families, bills and mortgages.

The punter is the bread basket. With out us there is no racing, and yet most of us lose. What other pass time can you name where losing is done the great majority of the time other than other gambling pass times.

And there it is the word "Gambling" the dream of getting something for nothing. But is it really for nothing? what about the past losses you have had, what gambler can truly say they don't have past losses?

Are we just kidding ourselves wasting our time, some smarties might say the best tip of all is "keep your money in your pocket"

Why would anybody share a winning strategy? Knowing what we all know about this game and basically how hard it is to turn a $$$ in this pass time.

Sure we all have made triggers that win occasionally but lose more often than win.

The question is WHY ???

I have tried hundreds of different trigger systems and most come out about the same as if you simply had random rank picks as your selector. There are so many different factors driving the horse racing prices along with market manipulation it is truly chaos really.

I think Oxa should look at a chaos theory neural system of triggers to try out for 7 days can't really hurt, especially for horse racing. Other sports are completely different, and maybe indicator triggers might work a little better there.

To truly say you have a winning trigger on horse racing would have to place you up in the genius categories as trying to find a way to harness chaos outcomes every race is quite possibly the holy grail of punting on animals who run races with humans on their backs lolol

Good luck Friends i wish you well.

bonecrusher
I never bought a lifetime licence when I had the opportunity and kick myself every day by not realizing at the time the power of MF Pro and its team behind it.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #12 on: 03 Feb 2019, 15:47 »
The question is WHY ??? 

The answer is pretty simple: the exchange commission is deducted from your winnings and not added back when you are losing (not like with HMRC!)

More on that in this article:


Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator
Always try your triggers in Test Mode before switching to real money!

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #13 on: 04 Feb 2019, 04:54 »
The question is WHY ???
The answer is pretty simple: the exchange commission is deducted from your winnings and not added back when you are losing (not like with HMRC!) More on that in this article: Backing in Place markets on horses at >= 1.6, with a Profit Accumulator

Hi Oxa,

Yes i agree totally. Betfair is not in this for the love of the sports it's their luv of MONEY LOLO our money ;)

But you would think there could be a way of working that % through the total amount of bets and markets, surely this can be achieved and the % cut disadvantage overcome :-\

Anyway i like your new idea for this week, i find betting in the place market always a losing proposition but your idea seems interesting!!!

bonecrusher
I never bought a lifetime licence when I had the opportunity and kick myself every day by not realizing at the time the power of MF Pro and its team behind it.

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Re: Successful Strategies
« Reply #14 on: 23 Feb 2019, 13:40 »
I'm working on another system now with good results so far.

The aim is to lay at lower than SP in the horse racing markets, which I am achieving consistently.

I'm still in the testing stage but will report back if I ever go live with it :)

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE