Author Topic: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?  (Read 14447 times)

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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #15 on: 18 Sep 2010, 19:28 »
There is no lay criteria!

post a profitable scenario in a public forum and you can kiss the profits bye bye

OK - I understand why people would not make it public but there has to be a starting point to either lay or back in order to trade. But, at least I know it hasn't been posted now, so I know I didn't miss something.

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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #16 on: 18 Sep 2010, 21:40 »
The starting point is value.

If you keep laying horses at 20 that are likely to go off at 30, then you have cracked it. It really is that simple.

The process however of filtering the horses that you can lay at 20 that will start with a bsp of 30 is something Alfaman and I have been working on now for almost a year.

It really is all about the maths. The sentiment for each horse in the market will always be a factor,  however 3 out of 4 lays we make are on the right side.

After further refinement and more testing of liquidity, we may decide to offer the trigger block to a limited number of users. But the liquidity question is the key issue in order not to compromise the profitability. We are continuing our testing with live bets increasing all the while. :)


Hope that helps?
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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #17 on: 19 Sep 2010, 18:24 »
Liquidity is always an issue. That's why I never believe these fly by night get rich quick merchants selling a system every week. Selling 2000 copies of each system will affect liquidity within the first day so there is no value in these systems even if they were good.

Identifying a horse that will drift before the off is an art in itself so I applaud anybody who has cracked it. It is something that I have never managed to do.

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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #18 on: 20 Sep 2010, 08:59 »


Identifying a horse that will drift before the off is an art in itself so I applaud anybody who has cracked it. It is something that I have never managed to do.

You are not alone here! If you could do that with a reliable method you would be rich!

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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #19 on: 22 Sep 2010, 20:17 »
In an astonishing turn of events, "Alfaman" was able to design and create an excel spreadsheet that calculates all the lay bets versus bsp to a fixed amount of £1 for every lay bet I have struck.

My assumption that un hedged bets on horses that have drifted in the betting way past the lay price struck are profitable is complete nonsense.
over 8000 bets have proved that hedging wins every time.

Can I just take this Opportunity to thank Alfaman for his brilliant work and confirming that the hedge is definitely the way to continue. ;)

 
 
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Re: To hedge or not to hedge that is the question?
« Reply #20 on: 23 Sep 2010, 12:24 »
great stuff!!

Fortune favors the brave!

 

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