Who are we really playing against ?

Hi,

I have some wonderings! Who are we really playing against ?

Of course it's player like us who are offering odds, but I suppose lots of the odds come from BetFair itself and maybe other bookie's aswell?

The sports are p2p only.
Of course there are some big guys putting their money on markets.

The odds from the "big guys" are always canceled before the live market gets suspended and the odds remaining is from guys like us, of course the odds are canceled but but not in the same way!

Taking into account of the small margins, that usually exicts, minus commision, data fees (request and Transactions) etc. - It's not much left (I have soccer-market in mind)

I've noticed the same, in football for example, there's sometimes a ´false suspend´, and the big back/lays disappear just before the suspend, so it has to be BetFair's money...

I've seen that there're companies that provide a ´liquidity´service for exchanges, but they wouldn't be able to consistently remove there bets just before BetFair's suspend monkey hits the button.

Apart from that, it seems that the crossmatch odds that BetFair puts up is BetFair's money as well. Free money for them....

Yes mate and they still levy a premium charge, greedy b's.

It's about time Welldone supported Betdaq

I've noticed the same, in football for example, there's sometimes a ´false suspend´, and the big back/lays disappear just before the suspend, so it has to be BetFair's money...

You can cancel unmatched bets with no inplay delay even if market is suspended. If the bot of the big player works fine, there is no chance to get an pre-goal odd after the goal.

Apart from that, it seems that the crossmatch odds that BetFair puts up is BetFair's money as well. Free money for them....

This is called by BetFair as NEW matching algorithm. For soccer and tennis match odds,
BetFair shows the opposite bet on the other selection.

In tennis: If you back player 1, your bet is matched against an other BetFair members lay on player1

or

Your back bet is matched against a back of another BetFair member on player2. If this is the case, BetFair  earns a small spread from this crossmatch.


In Soccer: If you back team 1, your bet is matched against an other BetFair members lay on team 1

or

your back bet ist matched against a back of another BetFair member for team 2 and a back of another BetFair member for the draw. Again  BetFair earns a small spread from this crossmatch. As far as I remeber, BetFair promised to return this money to customers via a "get your losses back" campain.....

Again, no money from BetFair, you see just the BetFair member odds on opposite side and opposite selection.

BetFair shows the crossmatch odds in website, bot not in API. If you see differences in odds and volume in API (marketfeeder) and website, there is crossmatch enabled. No Autodutching possible!!!!

The only way to bet against BetFair are multiples.

I understand that I can cancel bets when the market is suspended, my point was that these big bets consistently disappear automagically just before a suspend, even when there's no reason to suspend at all. Noticed it many times with AGT, therefore I think it has to be BetFair's money.

About the crossmatch odds, I wasn't aware that BetFair would give the spread money back, I've never seen it, have you ?

About bf not putting in their money, if I lay at 1.01, a back bet of 110 shows up on the other side. This 110 is BetFair's money, and them profitting from the spread. Well, that's how I see it at least.

Where can I read about the "BetFairs new algorithm"? -couldn't find it on the web site!

Where can I read about the "BetFairs new algorithm"? -couldn't find it on the web site!

http://bdp.betfair.com/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=237&Itemid=108

or

If for security reasons you're reluctant to follow links posted on the forum, you can reach the same information by going to the BetFair Home Page; Developers Program; Sports; Technical FAQs; Search for What is the algorithm for displaying prices inline with the website?

Thanks for the link, but did I understand it right - by doing this they get increased turnover (higer commmision profits) and earning on the spread.

But could this explain the bigamount at back and lay disappearing just before the suspend?

Thanks for the link, but did I understand it right - by doing this they get increased turnover (higer commmision profits) and earning on the spread.

But could this explain the big amount at back and lay disappearing just before the suspend?

But BetFair explains if from a punter's view: The bets are matched against a better odd. And the market window looks better because you see each unmatched bet twice. I am not sure if more turnover at better odds is more profit for BetFair.

Sorry, I cannot find the source for it (it was somehere in the old BetFair forum.) BetFair promised to give the spread away by a "refund 100% of you losses" programm, which is in the banner ads very often, but I never got any money from this programm.....

Yes, this can explain back and lay amounts disappearing. If a big player removes all lay bets, all back bets disappear, too. But I cannot explain whiy it is BEFORE the suspend, must be after the suspend. Or the big player watches the match live at the stadium or court and has no time delay by internet and satellite TV.

Yes, this can explain back and lay amounts disappearing. If a big player removes all lay bets, all back bets disappear, too. But I cannot explain whiy it is BEFORE the suspend, must be after the suspend. Or the big player watches the match live at the stadium or court and has no time delay by internet and satellite TV.

I've been dabbling in the Over/Under 1.5, 2.5 and 3.5 Goals markets for several months now and have also observed these big amounts automagically disappearing seconds BEFORE a market is suspended. I do not think these occurrences can be explained away by some big player, who's watching all these matches live or on TV without time delay, cancelling these bets before BF's suspend monkey presses his suspend switch. No one can consistently have such high reaction times. I think there is indeed a bot at play here somewhere.

hi
this sounds a bit like a couple of blokes that took the phone poll for the big brother phone in, before they passed the info to BetFair one of them put the bet on.
they of course got court by the bookies who watched there movements.
NOW, if BetFair has a bot or whatever/whoever, and is using information that is to be released to punters, then they are also breaking the law.
it's a bit like having the final results for the forex and buying/selling before the results are released
one of the forum members sat with a laptop at a horse race, a horse fell and before the horse name etc was given out, his laptop showed the odds alter at BetFair, i cannot remember who it was but he is from this forum.

mcbee

Hop into any market any type any country any time.

Thats who your playing against.

They range from professional punters, traders and absolute halfwits right down to thieves, scoundrels and the lowest of all inside traders.

The tools they use are anything from a
                    web interface with 5 sec refresh
                                                 (that's where most of us started)
                    right up to one click betting
                                                (MFPro's biggest, best and most powerful feature)



For those of you interested in building bots (and I actually am)

    Remember
           A good punter will always beat a Bot hands  downs... No question about it.
               how much the punter wins depends on how dumb the programmer was
                  (And believe me programmers are really dumb.)

          So I only build bots to beat other bots.


The bot I'm after at present, is really well written and been around so long we might as well call it "The BetFair Bot"(I first found it about 5 years ago.)

    Hop into any low volume race 2 -3 minutes before start.
               Greyhound or Horse (probably other markets as well)
         
          see all those minimum and below minimum bets
                  ..they all belong to a single bot.

              and he doesn't abide by the rules.

           1000 bets an hour
                         - he blows that on a single race.

            20 refreshes a sec
                         - don't know if he breaks this one but he moves like grease lightning.

            bets below minimum .... all the bloody time.
 
          manipulates markets.  Sure does.

   With the web interface and its 5 sec delay - I couldn't see him let alone catch him.
            (But I knew he was there- my bottom line told me so.)

So I invested in MFpro.
     Lifetime license - best software on the market and best investment I ever made
                  (Better than my first wife and a whole lot cheaper)

 And with the aid of MFPro's one click betting I caught the little sucker.
               $3 at a time.

              problem is I only make xx% of that $3

                xx% of      $3 x an average of 3 bets a race x 15 races an hour
                         ( you do the maths)
  Still it opened my eyes to world of dumb bots and even dumber programmers.


Take for instance bots which jump ahead of back and/or lay bets.
  BetFair is filled to the brim with them.
               
          After you find one or more  (I found 3 within a month of using MFPro)
           it'll be an easy kill. If you can't work how consider giving BetFair away.
                 Your neither a punter,trader or programmer and we don't take prisoners.

     Determine which markets these bots are working in and when.
    Then its a simple of how much you are prepared to RISK for the returns on offer.

                There is always RISK.
                There are  no guarantees with BetFair.
                 Even the owner/owners of BetFair Bot know this.

 In my case I risked $50 for returns of between $7 and $35 a pop.
 50 times a week for a month.(and I didn't lose my $50 either not even once)

By the end of the month the bots were either.
             - turned of (well some programmers know what a stop-loss means)
             - broke (most programmers don't know what a stop-loss is)
             - or rewritten (some people maintain their bots and don't assume
                 that because it made a profit yesterday it'll make a profit today
                 and tomorrow.)

So happy punting..
and if you find a bot good luck to you too.


Apples999


     



       



       
 




             






 
    to that one 0.001% of bots

I think there's something designed here for players to loose. It's just me though.