Share your little gem

I thought a thread where members could post just one little gem they have developed themselves may help everyone improve there triggers. It should be a win win for contributors.

Some of us may be well experienced and have in depth triggers but you never known there may be a quicker easier way to do something.

I'll start with the first "Gem".

-Activity detector-
Scenario- Horse races where there is a on course delay and the market is trading but little or no activity due to the delay. I don't like wagering in markets where there is no action. Perhaps a rain delay or an ambulance is not at the race course (horses). You could use Back Book% but that isn't always accurate in that the Book value may be 102% but its been like that for 10 minutes.

Set all variables below as = 99 999 999
The user variables must be in the sequence below

Set user variable mv2 = mv1
Set user variable mv1 = market_volume
No more often then 5 secs
Condition in wagering triggers is trigger expression mv1 > (mv2 + 1000)

Therefore the market_volume must have increased $1000 in the last 5 secs to ensure the market is active. Change to whatever values you want.

Enjoy.

Good initiative , I will contribute later! Is it possible to use your conditions for identifying the start of a delayed race if so what will the accuracy of actual start be (by your experience). The US horse races seem always be delayed.

PS. Maybe this thread should have been under general discussion or triggered betting?

Hi
Automatically replace a cancelled pending greenup after a football market suspension.
I use something like this for trading Over / Unders
the example below is for a matched back bet

Action: attempt to green up (your % or ticks etc.)
Execute: no more often than 45.00 sec <---- adjust this according to refresh rate etc.
Conditions:
selections back matched is greater than 0
and selections back unmatched is equal to 0
and selections lay unmatched is equal to 0
and all other selections profit/loss is less than 0
AND <---- I have multiple triggers for opening the trade
or trigger backing1 number of runs is greater than 0
or trigger backing2 number of runs is greater than 0
or trigger backing3 number of runs is greater than 0

Quote from: tupp on 15 Feb 2015, 09:33

Good initiative , I will contribute later! Is it possible to use your conditions for identifying the start of a delayed race if so what will the accuracy of actual start be (by your experience). The US horse races seem always be delayed.

PS. Maybe this thread should have been under general discussion or triggered betting?

I know what you mean tupp, I wagered in the USA a few years ago but liquidity and lack of in-play saw me drift away. All I can suggest is experiment with the market volume change and the time period. Activity always increases as they are about to jump.

Warren Buffett - one of the world's richest . My interpretation of the cornerstones of his investment strategy is to find value and the use of compound interest effect. This concept is something that will give profit in sports betting too, and to achieve fast grow rate.

The graph shows how I more than doubles my bank roll in two days by applying the concept. The compounding effect is from keeping track of the maximum bank and always bet a fractional of that and applying recoup in several steps.

Quote from: tupp on 15 Feb 2015, 15:40

Warren Buffett - one of the world's richest . My interpretation of the cornerstones of his investment strategy is to find value and the use of compound interest effect. This concept is something that will give profit in sports betting too, and to achieve fast grow rate.

The graph shows how I more than doubles my bank roll in two days by applying the concept. The compounding effect is from keeping track of the maximum bank and always bet a fractional of that and applying recoup in several steps.

What is value?
Person A value a runner at $2.0 The market values it at $1.80
The market values a runner at $2.0 Person B be values it at $1.80.
Efficient market theory suggests the market is correct given no abnormal information. Buffet morphed into a market maker not a market taker.

Where does one find value in a 101% efficient market?

Quote from: londolozi on 16 Feb 2015, 04:08

What is value?
Person A value a runner at $2.0 The market values it at $1.80
The market values a runner at $2.0 Person B be values it at $1.80.
Efficient market theory suggests the market is correct given no abnormal information. Buffet morphed into a market maker not a market taker.

Where does one find value in a 101% efficient market?

I think like this.
I would define value for a certain outcome as [value]=[probability]*[odds]-1
Hence value can have both signs and we should Back if it's >0 and Lay if it's <0.

If we see the market as "all the outcomes" we would almost always end up with negative value as you imply. But of course there do sometimes exist value for all the outcomes - an arbitrage situation.

Could an arbitrage situation exist in a fully efficient market? I would say no.

I think of "Efficient Market Theory" as a theory or maybe as a model. I believe the "true" market could be described more as "semi" efficient.

I think value are created when the supply and demand is "skewed" from example due to an over reaction to new information etc.

Hi,

If you have multiple profiles open and need to re-arrange them on the taskbar, you cannot do it like before by just click/drag.

Instead, hide the profile you want moved using the hide arrow top right and then un-hide it again and it will have magically moved on the taskbar to the utmost right hand side.

Not much, but saves exiting and relogging in the profile

Larp

Share your little gem

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