Author Topic: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?  (Read 3614 times)

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Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« on: Sun, 17 November, 2019, 17:05 »
Just been going through a load of test data, and using the TSM calculator the TSM staking plan works even better than the fibonacci in my test of over 5000 results.  
Once the expected strike rate is "exceeded" stakes can be reduced, and once expected strike rate is "lower" the stakes increase. Seems like a pretty good method if a trigger can be made to do this? Anyone with experience with this please comment .:D
Thanks
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #1 on: Tue, 19 November, 2019, 14:59 »
Hello!

Which of the TSM staking plan do you refer to? There is a number of them there.
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #2 on: Tue, 19 November, 2019, 18:36 »
Hi Oxa
Many thanks for the reply. The trigger i refer to is the i-TSM Plan as listed under the back analysis section of the data analysis.  the explanation is here https ://www.thestakingmachine.com/i-TSM-Plan.php
The trigger build would be way over my head, as it has the ability to calculate based on the "expected" strike rate.  If the current sequence exceeds or is below the strike rate, adjustments can be made to compensate.

Looking at thousands of tests i have done, £1 for £1 this one comes top every time in that the stakes will always get matched as they rarely get above £18 and average around £5.

It beats the fibonacci reults in that losing runs can be better mangaged. IF they get to 20 or more losses in a row the Fib sequence would cycle twice before catching the winner and even then you may not get matched on the greyhounds with "modest" liquidity sometimes available.
I have paid for a trigger which has yet to be built Trigger request Receipt number: 3SK12329MD5627540
So if this could be made instead that would be the best christmas present ever!  
Hope you can help Oxa ;D
Happy Christmas .....Andy
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #3 on: Tue, 19 November, 2019, 23:13 »
The other excellent one is the 1 point recovey here https ://www.thestakingmachine.com/1-Point-Back-Staking-Plan.php
There is very little between the two in terms of profitability as above and this i believe is the one i downloaded yesterday which worked great today the "back-greyhound-loss-recovery as request by user "Charllys"   in this post https://community.welldonesoft.com/marketfeeder-triggered-betting/trigger-15264/
It look much easier but does need bigger stakes again, even if starting with £1
if the above is not the 1 point plan then by all means build this trigger instead, as it looks far easier to create!  Thanks again

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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #5 on: Wed, 29 January, 2020, 14:29 »
Oxa would this Plan work well with laying between 5...10 BSP with a good strike rate > 95%?

Or wouldn't you bother with it.

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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #6 on: Wed, 29 January, 2020, 16:06 »
Oxa would this Plan work well with laying between 5...10 BSP with a good strike rate > 95%? Or wouldn't you bother with it.

I have no data at hand to give my opinion on this. The triggers will work for sure (set target_rate to 95 and min_price/max_price to your range), but I don't know whether they will bring profit or loss in the end.
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #7 on: Tue, 04 February, 2020, 16:01 »
WOW OXA 
Just seen your message as we are just back from holiday. Thank you so much for taking the time and trouble to create this masterpiece trigger !
It must have taken hours of work to get this sorted and I cannot wait to test it out. Like you say the upside is the incredibly low liabilities compared to the potential upside. 
YOU ARE A GENIUS :)
If ever you are in Spain there is a large beverage and a free meal for you here !;D
Thanks a mill 
Andy
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #8 on: Tue, 04 February, 2020, 17:16 »
Just a quickie Oxa
Can the LAY bet be placed at bsp without too many changes in the liability expression???? if so can you let me have the expression ?
Thanks again if this is a possibilty as the lay bets i have done in test are around 1% (on average) worse than bsp.
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #9 on: Wed, 05 February, 2020, 07:42 »
i seem to have sorted it Oxa!
I just changed to lay at sp and put *4 
so expression now reads (liab_size*4 + extra_liab)*base/((lay_price-1)*100)
hope that does not screw things up but at least it is working well now! ;D
THANKS AGAIN! 
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #10 on: Wed, 05 February, 2020, 10:05 »
Hi betfair winner!

Thanks for your offer, I may take you up on it next time I plan a holiday. ;D

I was just going to say that you do not need to change the formula for laying at BSP -- just change from "lay" to "lay at SP".
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #11 on: Wed, 05 February, 2020, 12:20 »
Yes Oxa, at the liability of 1% of bank and test funds of £1000 the log was showing "error" as it failed to reach the minimum £10 liability for the sp bet. By *4 we are now getting the trigger firing so no problem.
I guess i could also change the liability to 4% to have the same effect....::)

Still reeling from this trigger complexity with detailed analysis of the ratios of "expected" and "actual" current strike rates and its ability to adjust the staking accordingly for optimal results without finding you are staring at lay bet of £350 on a 8/1 shot!!!!!

VERY WELL DONE in getting this to work Oxa, this must be the best creation yet of this extraordinary software capability! BRILLIANT JOB!   ;)

Anyone looking for an off the shelf lay trigger that works should test this trigger themselves, to see just how brilliant and effective this could be.

Interestingly although the results you achieved were exceptional for the 10 days, had you increased the % liability to 2% after the losing day (before reverting to 1% the following day after the recovered losses) it would have generated £435 in 10 days not the £317 you actually achieved.  
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #12 on: Wed, 05 February, 2020, 19:09 »
Also Oxa you say in the trigger details "This strategy is incredibly flexible, as you can easily convert it into a set of backing triggers, change the fixed liability to a fixed about of bet, change the selection you want to bet on, etc."

"change the fixed liability to a fixed about of bet" can you be more specific about this point as it appears to be working but the log after 100 or more test bets reads Special log message from trigger "backing". All Market's Selections: s_rate: 0; last10: -1, last20: -1, last30: -1, last50: -1. Market "Greyhound Racing / SIS / Donc 5th Feb / 19:03 Donc 5th Feb - A3 483m - A3 483m 

Maybe a tweak needed for the back bets ?
Thanks Oxa 
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #13 on: Thu, 06 February, 2020, 17:09 »
Quote
Maybe a tweak needed for the back bets ?

So what particular changes do you need to make to the triggers? Back bets with fixed size?
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Re: Anyone got a TSM back trigger that works?
« Reply #14 on: Thu, 06 February, 2020, 22:53 »
Hi Oxa 
I put in a user variable for the back bet which is fine 
But the log is not appearing to calculate the increments based on the last 10 to 50 bets 
this is what i get after 100 or so bets. Wondering if the back bet has failed to be recognised by the counter?
 Special log message from trigger "backing". All Market's Selections: s_rate: 0; last10: -1, last20: -1, last30: -1, last50: -1. Market "Greyhound Racing / SIS / Donc 5th Feb / 19:03 Donc 5th Feb - A3 483m - A3 483m

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