Author Topic: Complex strategy want turning into a trigger - Not sure if possible!  (Read 8420 times)

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Ok, this might take a bit of doing but bear with me.

This strategy requires the use of the following football markets:
Match Odds
First Goal Odds
Correct Score
Under/Over 2.5

What needs to happen is that for every game (which has over £7,500 liquidity in the Correct Score market) and has all the above markets available for the fixture to go in-play (bar First Goal Odds - which doesn't go in-play anyway) it performs an initial check on the Match Odds and identifies games which have a Home favourite price between 1.9 and 2.75 with the Away teams odds no lower than 2.85. Further more then Under 2.5 price has to be below 1.83 and at the same time checks that the following scores are a minimum to back:
1-0 & 1-1 combined price of 14.8 to back (if 1-0 is 8.0 and 6.8 for example, or they are 7.2 and 7.2 that is fine also)
2-0 = 11.0 or greater
0-3 = 28.0 or greater

Once it finds a suitable game it then backs the First Goal Odds 0-10 mins for £2.50 at the same time backing (dutching) the 1-0, 1-1 and 2-0 scores in Correct Score Market for a liability of £27 - weighting more on the 1-1 if possible. This only happens if the prices above all match. This can be done as long as the Under 2.5 score doesn't go above 1.83-1.85 before the off.

Once in-play, on the games which the above has fired on, it should wait till 9.8minutes into the game, check to see if a goal(s) have been scored:
If a goal has been scored then green up/distribute loss in the Correct Score Market and do nothing else, nothing in Under/Over 2.5 market.

If no goal is scored, it should then LAY Under 2.5 goals at 1.72 (the expected price of u2.5 at 9-10mins in) for a liability of £51. If the price happens to be 1.70 then still the liability should still be £51.

The trigger should then wait till the game is HT (not sure best way to work this out, unless you just use 50minutes after going in-play?) and the following analysis/action should take place:
If score is 0-0, wait until the combined distributed loss ('what-if' figure) across both the markets, CS and U2.5 would be £20 (not including the £2.50 in the First Goal Odds market), this might be at HT/slightly before.
If score is 1-0 leave as a profit is ensured.
If score is 2-0 leave as a profit is ensured.
If 0-1 wait until the combined loss across all the markets, CS and U2.5 is £20 (not including the £2.50 in the First Goal Odds market), then hedge the U2.5 to leave a loss of £11 on U2.5 and a profit of around £12.50 on O2.5. In the Correct Score Market distribute the loss across all score in market. This could be at 55min, so 10mins into second half.
If 0-2 green up/distribute loss in both markets (CS and U/O2.5).

Any other score = job done and profit attained.

I understand this is quite complex so I don't expect this will be a quick job.
Let me know your thoughts.

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hi
i am working through your instructions,but
Quote
1-0 & 1-1 combined price of 14.8 to back (if 1-0 is 8.0 and 6.8 for example, or they are 7.2 and 7.2 that is fine also)
is not defined , do you want the price to be less than or greater than or have you a between price limit, or is it the combined prices exact.
because 6+6.8=14.8 but 7.2+7.2=14.4


mcbee
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Sorry McBee, basically the prices of those two scores combined have to be equal to or greater than 14.8 as you need to be able to use £27 across the 3 scores in the correct score market.
I meant to put 7.4 and 7.4

Apologies.

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Hi,
This strategy sounds very complex - What is the risk?

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Risk is that the game ends 0-0 at HT.
But I am working on the fact that a home goal will get scored between 10-45mins. If a home goal is scored, you win.
If an away goal is scored you can more or less get out for scratch/bit of a loss.
0-2 is not bad as you back 0-2 at 28.0+ for £1 at the start and have the lay on under 2.5 goals.


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hi
where am i betting with this
Quote
The trigger should then wait till the game is HT (not sure best way to work this out, unless you just use 50minutes after going in-play?) and the following analysis/action should take place:
If score is 0-0, wait until the combined distributed loss ('what-if' figure) across both the markets, CS and U2.5 would be £20 (not including the £2.50 in the First Goal Odds market), this might be at HT/slightly before
cs or uo

mcbee
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hi
where am i betting with thiscs or uo

mcbee

Both markets need to have the loss distributed if the score is 0-0 at HT.

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hi
a quick update, i am testing now
the correct score market has
1-0,1-1 and 2-0 dutched
the first goal market has 0-10 mins  2.50
there was a goal 0-1
lay bet went in at about 10 min, but only on the 1-1, because 1-0 and 2-0 had no lay amounts available.
the other match has no goal and about 10 mins a lay bet was placed 1.72 ready to be matched in the under 2.5 , the lay odds are 1.95
15 mins in to the game and the under lay bet is matched.

oh i forgot to mention so that i can test i have altered the max and min prices so that i can test so there will not be profits, just testing for bet placement etc


mcbee
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hi
a quick update, i am testing now
the correct score market has
1-0,1-1 and 2-0 dutched
the first goal market has 0-10 mins  2.50
there was a goal 0-1
lay bet went in at about 10 min, but only on the 1-1, because 1-0 and 2-0 had no lay amounts available.
the other match has no goal and about 10 mins a lay bet was placed 1.72 ready to be matched in the under 2.5 , the lay odds are 1.95
15 mins in to the game and the under lay bet is matched.


mcbee

ok, feedback from me is that in the first game it worked corrected then, subject to it only fired due to the selection criteria stated in the first post (match odds and u2.5 price being met)
the only addition needs to be that it backs 0-3 for £1 before the off as well.

this should have not been made a selection as the criteria at the start is that the u2.5 odds have to be under 1.85 before the off when the cs bets are placed, along with the fact that the match odds have specific criteria which have to be met.

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hi
yes that bet was placed, i forgot to say.

mcbee
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how did the bets at the start get placed in the first place as if the u2.5 odds were 1.95 then they are too high to meet the selection criteria at the start?

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hi
i did say that i altered the prices so that i could see if the bets were been placed, it would take to long to test at the correct settings.
all was ok until half time, i made a mistake in the what if calculations and the triggers did not fire so i am re-testing.
it will take a few days for testing.


mcbee
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ok cool. thank ever so much mcbee.

i take it that constants/variables will be used so that i can adjust/tweak if needed?

once again thanks

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hi
yes, at the moment there are 11 constants.
all the you requested with odds etc will have constants.


mcbee
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hi
can you give me an example for this.
Quote
If score is 0-0, wait until the combined distributed loss ('what-if' figure) across both the markets, CS and U2.5 would be £20

mcbee
Please read the following  disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

 

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