Author Topic: delay after a goal scored  (Read 13282 times)

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #15 on: 25 Oct 2012, 20:58 »
Hello Rubold,

I think he's applying it the correct score market. So, for example, he backs 1 - 1 when the score is 0 - 0. The odds tend to shorten after a goal is scored and if the lay bet is below the back bet he can make a profit. And, as a further guess, I think he does this with more than ten games at a time. That's why he needs a trigger, it's physically difficult to track them all.

The same thing can be repeated in all the games by adding a goal to each side on the current score. In the Germany game there were many late goals, four in the last twenty minutes, I believe.

I can see how the Match Odds, dog/underdog, laying the draw, etc. have all been "done to death", so I hope, for his sake, that he has found something novel.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #16 on: 26 Oct 2012, 12:51 »
i think some issues have been misunderstood because of my bad English.
I ll try to explain my strategy
1. i don't trade
2.I BACK at the match market not at the correct score
3. i BACK the team is behind in the score, not the underdog before the start of the match.
When i said "underdog" i meant the team with the bigger back price after a goal.
4. the idea is that in betfair as we all know the prices are bigger than traditional bookmakers.
And this difference is bigger as bigger is the price!!! You ll find an 1,30 in - for example- in be365 and 1,35 in betfair. BUT when in bet365 the price is 20 it will be 30 or higher in bf.
After a goal the prices of the team with the bigger price has really HIGH price. It's all about
"value bet".

of course i won't reveal all my conditions and my whole strategy.
but the results are so good to be true!!!

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #17 on: 26 Oct 2012, 14:40 »
I'm glad it's working well for you.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #18 on: 26 Oct 2012, 19:00 »
hi all
welldone fysibet.
this is good.
it is based on the fav wins on average 30% OF THE TIME and a 1.1 draw is 17% chance etc, so by backing the underdog when the price is higher than the start, you will get better value.
all you have to do is wait until the odds rise to your settings  8), if not delete the match and go on to the next.

mcbee
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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #19 on: 26 Oct 2012, 21:24 »
I do a similar thing with the Over 2.5 goals market. Comparatively few goals are scored in the first 15 minutes of a game and I enter the market at a higher price than I would have been able to at the kick off. If a goal is scored in the first 15 minutes, I ignore the game and move on to another.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #20 on: 30 Oct 2012, 17:41 »
Hi Fysibet. I understand that you managed to find value bet manually, but how are you doing using mfp? I assume it could be quite difficult to get the trigger to work as you wish? Do you still manage to have such high yield using mfp?

/Mat

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #21 on: 30 Oct 2012, 23:42 »
i believe that high prices at betfair are value bets. I am talking about soccer right?
I don't know a thing about horse races but i think that it is different because horses races last a little , a few minutes usually. But in soccer a few minutes are big enough time
If you look the prices at bf and at another book inplay you ll notice that as higher are the prices so bigger the difference is. It's because of the nature of bf (exchange).
Of course i layed Reading tonight at 1,03.


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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #22 on: 31 Oct 2012, 08:40 »
Well done!
Fortune favors the brave!

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #23 on: 31 Oct 2012, 10:24 »
I'm afraid it's not as easy as it seems to be. You were lucky with your bet last night. I am assured that it is impossible to make a profit by laying all horses who trade at 1.01. It follows that is also impossible to make a consistent profit by laying all markets at 1.03.

I wish you well and an genuinely pleased that you won last night. Such wins are, however, unlikely to be repeated so as to give profit in the long term.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #24 on: 31 Oct 2012, 16:05 »
Nice bet!  :)

But it looks like you still do your bets manually?

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #25 on: 31 Oct 2012, 16:54 »
Yes these bets placed manually.
My trigger now places BACK bets only after the 1st goal.
I want to test it this way first.
Maybe later i ll change the trigger so it places bets when the score is 2-0,3-0, 3-1 etc

I placed the screenshot just to say that in high prices in bf it seems to be value bets.
And of course it is not the only. In 2 weeks it is the 2nd 4-0 which turns to 4-4.


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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #26 on: 01 Nov 2012, 06:45 »
I agree with nigelbleddfa1 .. some sort of edge is needed.

I would look at filtering market by win odds and add maybe the over/under 2.5/3.5 market also.

You want market that are most likely to produce 3/4 goals, but also not too one sided ... Chelsea v Man U was probably a perfect one.
Fortune favors the brave!

 

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