Author Topic: delay after a goal scored  (Read 13283 times)

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delay after a goal scored
« on: 23 Oct 2012, 07:07 »
hello from Greece.
I want to make a trigger for soccer in play.
I want this trigger be active :
1. after a goal is scored (let's say the first goal)
2. after a delay (let's say 60 seconds) after the suspension so the prices settle down.

I am interesting for the suspension only because a goal is scored, not after a red card, a penalty kick etc. The correct score must be change.

thank you and sorry for my English

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #1 on: 23 Oct 2012, 08:13 »
Hi
Here is a condition to set a delay:
http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/create-a-delay-after-in-play-market-suspension/
and to detect when a goal is scored:
Trigger Expression market_pscore1+market_pscore2 is not equal to market_score1+market_score2
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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #2 on: 23 Oct 2012, 10:56 »
I've already seen this but it applies in every kind suspension (goal, red card etc).
I need only when a goal has been scored. It will be something with market_score1 etc

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #3 on: 23 Oct 2012, 10:59 »
ok sorry i didn't read well.
It will be a new trigger ?

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #4 on: 23 Oct 2012, 11:28 »
Hi
You don’t say what you want your trigger to do, in which market and what selection, but your conditions should include:
and Selection’s Trigger Expression market_pscore1+market_pscore2 is not equal to market_score1+market_score2
and Selection’s Trigger Expression (now_time-last_inplay)/0.00001157 is greater than 60
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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #5 on: 23 Oct 2012, 16:13 »
ok i think it's ok now.
The time delay starts to count from the start of suspension?
When a goal is scored the market is suspended immediately, but many times the delay for the market to start again takes some time so i want to know what exactly this "60 secs" means.

I want to back the underdog team after a goal in big prices.
But i want to ensure that the market will settle down after a goal

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #6 on: 23 Oct 2012, 17:20 »
Hi
The time delay starts from end of suspension. From the manual:
last_inplay
"The date and time at which the market was turned "in-play" last time. This variable differs from event_off, because event_off is only set once: when the event starts. Whereas last_inplay is set each time a market's status is switched to "in-play". For example, if a football match is turned in-play after a goal was scored (and the market was suspended for several sec.)."

At some point you may need to consider what to do if the suspension after a goal is very quick. In this case if your market refresh is too slow, the trigger might miss the suspension. (search micro suspend on the forum)
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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #7 on: 23 Oct 2012, 18:06 »
Whatever you do is dependent on the delay before a score is updated.  I think I understand the strategy that fysibet is seeking to implement but it may be that it does not lend itself easily to automation.

The difficulties relating to "suspension" have already been considered and , in addition to legitimate suspensions, red cards, penalties and goals, there are many false alarms as the guy on the "suspend button" gets trigger-happy.

My own guess is that a time of + 2 minutes after notification of change of score is a suitable one to begin with and then modify it according to experience gained later if necessary.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #8 on: 23 Oct 2012, 21:38 »
i tried it tonight. I put the delay time 2 minutes after suspension and the change of score.
It seems it worked fine. And it was profitable!!!!!!!! 74 euros profit (net) with 2 euros stakes!!!
It means 37 units profit. The yield was 34,5%.
I think 2 minutes is ok. May lose some bets but it is ok. There are so many soccer games !!
Of course the delay time after suspension is not the only condition.
I have conditions for the minimum back price, the back price comparing with the last traded back price, the volume of the market etc...

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #9 on: 24 Oct 2012, 07:21 »
Hi
Sounds good. Sometimes the market score can be unreliable. I find the most efficient indicator of a goal is the actual price ticks change over x mins (tdif_).
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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #10 on: 24 Oct 2012, 10:59 »
Well done.

Don't get over confident .. last night was a good night for your strategy for sure .. but wait till at least 30-50 events to start getting excited over the Return on investment.

Good luck.
Fortune favors the brave!

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #11 on: 24 Oct 2012, 16:02 »
i m not overexcited because of yesterday night.
I check it for a month now but without mfp.
I just was making it manually. It was for sure profitable BUT very , very , very difficult.
I had to spend hours looking the livescores and the odds.
For example i took Germany-Sweden 4-4 !!! I layed at 1,01.
But i am so tired i can't do it with my hands anymore.
So i am trying to make triggers.
I know that it is not reliable to do this but i ll take my changes

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #12 on: 25 Oct 2012, 10:53 »
Am I correct in assuming, that this strategy relies on the over-reaction in the market on the price of the underdog after the favourite team scores?  So you hope to back the underdog at a high price and then green for equal profit after the market realises that the team is playing better than first thought?

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #13 on: 25 Oct 2012, 16:30 »
I'm sure that the original poster is not backing in the Match Odds market as his requested trigger does not distinguish between the teams as scorers. Any goal activates his trigger.

I believe I know his strategy but will not reveal it as that is for him to do. If it is the one I think it is, it seems to me to be viable. Relatively small profit in each game but this can be enhanced if applied to many games and he has said that this is what he hopes to achieve.

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Re: delay after a goal scored
« Reply #14 on: 25 Oct 2012, 17:52 »
Hi Nigel

I only asked as I have tested all possible variations of this theme.  I thought he was using MO because he stated that he backed the underdog after a goal at big prices, so presumably he meant that the pre-match favourite scored.   You don't need to ascertain which team actually scored as if you wan't to back the favourite (or underdog) you can remember the appropriate index pre_kick off.

 

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