Author Topic: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed  (Read 5605 times)

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Hi everyone,

Please forgive me if this has already been discussed or there is a trigger that may already do this (if so maybe someone could point me in the right direction).

I wondered how I would work out the correct stakes on a dutch bet on the remaining slections (when the odds are ok) once a bet has been made.

For example I have placed a £50 test bet on the fav soccer team at 1.77. They have scored first and now the other selctions have back odds of 50.0 and 6.2. I know I can now place bets on them and make a profit. The only thing is I don't know how much to bet as I've already placed a £50 bet.

Thanks,

Whitey
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #1 on: 14 Aug 2013, 18:04 »
Hi
Could this be what you are after. Post #5 by Martin Steiner:
http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/formulas/msg211/#msg211
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #2 on: 20 Aug 2013, 08:16 »
Hi Mark,

I couldn't understand what Martin was trying to say in that post!

I have another example of what I am trying to achieve. Attached is a print screen of a dutch back I made on the correct scores before kick-off. I stand to make £254.07 or lose £100.

33 mins in and the score is 0-1. So now I would like a trigger to keep checking to see whether I can use my £254.07 on the remaining possible outcomes that don’t have a profit, to make a profit.

Obviously the score can no longer be 0-0, 1-0, 2-0, 3-0 so it don’t need to make a profit on these (I can filter these out by not betting on 1000 odds).

Remaining scores to back are:

0-1, 6.4 odds
1-1, 4.8 odds
1-2, 8.2 odds
2-1, 8.0 odds
2-2, 12.5 odds

I know you can make a very nice dutch back with these odds, so I thought I could just dutch back the remaining selections with half/all the potential winnings but that doesn’t always work as I expected.

Any help would be appreciated.

Whitey
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #3 on: 20 Aug 2013, 08:21 »
Another example…
30 mins in the score is 1-0 and I stand to make £355.18 or lose £100.

Remaining scores to back are:

1-0, 4.1 odds
1-1, 4.9 odds
1-2, 13.0 odds
2-0, 6.4 odds
2-1, 8.0 odds

If anyone can tell me a formula or a trigger example that can work out an even  profit on all selections that would be appreciated.

Whitey
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #4 on: 20 Aug 2013, 13:35 »
hi
i cannot work out a trigger unless i know the first selection process.
the formula is 100/odds/(total)*amount to lose
but to calculate the dutch for the selections that you have given would be.
1-0, 4.1 odds = 100/4.1=24.39
1-1, 4.9 odds = 100/4.9=20.41
1-2, 13.0 odds = 100/13=7.69
2-0, 6.4 odds = 100/6.4=15.62
2-1, 8.0 odds = 100/8=12.50
total the percentage =      80.61
then the calculation for the amount is
1-0, 4.1 odds = (24.39/80.61)*(the amount that you want to lose)353.18=106.86
1-1, 4.9 odds = (20.41/80.61)*(the amount that you want to lose)353.18=89.41
1-2, 13.0 odds = (7.69/80.61)*(the amount that you want to lose)353.18=33.70
2-0, 6.4 odds = (15.62/80.61)*(the amount that you want to lose)353.18=68.45
2-1, 8.0 odds = (12.50/80.61)*(the amount that you want to lose)353.18=54.76


mcbee
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #5 on: 20 Aug 2013, 14:16 »
Hi mcbee,

Thanks for your reply. I know that’s how you work out a dutch back but that doesn’t work out a nice even profit if you apply that to a market with bets already placed.

I have another example from today (right now actually). I dutch backed selections so I either win £113.44 or lose £100. Now the score is 2-0 and I could win if the score stays like that, but I would like to cover the 2 remaining scores which will lose me money.

2-2, 7.4 odds
2-3, 18.5 odds

A normal dutch-bet would mean stakes of:

2-2 = £81.03
2-3 = £32.41

But look what happens to the outcome of all selections when I place these bets… (next post)
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #6 on: 20 Aug 2013, 14:17 »
… a profit on each remaining score, but it’s not very even. A very nice £366.84 if the score ends at 2-2 or 2-3 or £5.67 otherwise.

Does anyone know how much I needed to dutch the remaining scores, and if you know how did you work it out? It must be possible?

Many thanks,

Whitey
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #7 on: 20 Aug 2013, 14:56 »
you will have to play around with the amount to lose.
try using 50% first then alter in the direction that it needs.


mcbee
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #8 on: 20 Aug 2013, 15:17 »
Do you think there is an automated way of doing it though? I'm not always going to be at my computer for all games and would like MFP to do the work for me :)

Whitey
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #9 on: 20 Aug 2013, 16:56 »
hi
yes, once you have your set amount to lose, it can be put in to trigger formula.


mcbee
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Re: Dutch back when possible once a bet has been placed
« Reply #10 on: 21 Aug 2013, 15:39 »
Hi,

OK, so manually I can find the “magic number” (e.g. amount to lose/bet) – I’ve created a spreadsheet (attached below) to help with the calculations – all I did was increase and decrease the number in G26 until “New P/L “ figures were about even. The spreadsheet has 2 tabs; Game 1 and Game 2.

Game 1:
Current score 2-1. Win £147 or lose £100. I can secure a profit no matter what the outcome if I split the “magic number” £112 between the remaining 3 selections. Guaranteed profit of £36.

Game 2:
Current score 0-2. Win £232 or lose £100. I can secure a profit no matter what the outcome if I split the “magic number” £118 between the remaining 3 selections. Guaranteed profit of £113.

But how can I work out the “magic number”? £112 in one match and £118 in the other? You can update the “magic number” for yourself and see the difference it makes.

I’ve tried automating it 100 different ways - like the profit or loss minus a percentage of that this or that! etc… Nothing seems to work!

Does anyone have an idea or formula to find the amount I need to bet to make an even profit?

Feel free to download the spreadsheet :)

Thanks,

Whitey
Yeah! :p

 

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