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  • #1 by Magestik on 30 Nov 2017
  • Hi all,

    I am trying to find what formula should be used for the following:

    A 10£ lay bet was placed at 2.30. This bet will have a liability of 13£.

    Now if I want to attempt to place a green up back back to get 5% of the liability (not stake) how can I calculate what odd and stake (including commission) should be used? i.e. 9.27£ at 2.48 for a 5.30% hedged profit.

    From what I have understood the "attempt to green up" trigger will do the math for the stake and not liability.

    Thanks
  • #2 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 30 Nov 2017
  • bp = lp/(1 - P*(lp-1)/(1-commission))

    ba = lp*la/bp

    Where: 

    bp = back price
    lp = lay price
    ba = back amount
    la = lay amount
    P = profit percentage/100

    See the example attached.
  • #3 by Magestik on 30 Nov 2017
  • bp = lp/(1 - P*(lp-1)/(1-commission)) ba = lp*la/bp Where: bp = back price lp = lay price ba = back amount la = lay amount P = profit percentage/100 See the example attached.

    Thank you very much Oxa
  • #4 by Magestik on 02 Jan 2018
  • Hi @Oxa

    Can you please help me understand how can I can calculate the next valid odd? This is especially true with odds of 2.00+ as the tick increment changes.

    Example: lay odd 2.60, attempting to get 10% profit on a 5% commission market using the bp = lp/(1 - P*(lp-1)/(1-commission)) formula

    2.60/(1-0.10*(2.60-1)(1-0.05)) = 3.126582 (back price)

    Since there is no 3.12 odd the only near "valid odds" are 3.10 or 3.15.
    I have tested and confirmed that MF will correctly calculate the valid odd (3.15= when placing a bet but this has an impact placing the correct amount to hedge using "ba = lp*la/bp" formula as the bp used to calculate was 3.126582.

    Thanks
  • #5 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 03 Jan 2018
  • Hello!

    The calculation error has to be factored into these formulae. BetFair will round a bet down to 0.01, so anything beyond that will be ignored and it can affect the P/L.
  • #6 by Magestik on 03 Jan 2018
  • Hi

    Any suggestion on how to achieve that?

    I couldn't find a rounding function or something related to that. Perhaps using b_tick?

    Thanks
  • #7 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 08 Jan 2018
  • The standard green-up trigger action is better at handing these errors, so it's better to use it rather than manual backing/laying.

    The easiest way to get a 10% with 5% commission in mind is to factor that commission into the profit percentage (see the example trigger attached).
  • #8 by Magestik on 10 Jan 2018
  • The standard green-up trigger action is better at handing these errors, so it's better to use it rather than manual backing/laying. The easiest way to get a 10% with 5% commission in mind is to factor that commission into the profit percentage (see the example trigger attached).

    Hi Oxa,

    Thanks for your reply.

    I thought about using the green-up trigger as well. But as I mentioned in the first post "the "attempt to green up" trigger will do the math for the stake and not liability". So it's great for a back-first trade but not for a lay-first.

    I even thought about placing a standard 2 bet just to check what the odd would be and then place a second bet with the reaming hedge amount.

    Do you see any other viable option for this?

    Thanks
  • #9 by Oxa (WellDoneSoft) on 23 Jan 2018
  • No problem, you just adjust the profit percentage so that it reflects the liability. See the attached trigger.
  • #10 by Magestik on 03 Feb 2018
  • Hi Oxa,

    Thank you very much. It works as planned.
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