Author Topic: fat punters and thin markets  (Read 3889 times)

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fat punters and thin markets
« on: 19 Jun 2014, 12:41 »
Hi,
I wish the reverse was true :)
For some time, around 3 years, I have been monitoring markets pertaining to tennis and cricket plus some rugby and despite large matched volumes some in the millions, the in play market volume per selection is pathetically minuscule with sometimes only £5-£10 on offer with a total matched in the 5,6 or 7 figure range. In addition it is not unusual to see a gap of 30 ticks between back and lay odds even for the favourite. 
One could have the perfect betting system but it is useless if one doesn't get vital bets matched and one event could wipe out any previous profits.
The gap is commonly the reason why bets are not being matched especially if a condition with a sensible gap of say 2-4 ticks is in place. By not getting matched a loss results and if we are relying on small scalp profits just one unnecessary loss can be fatal.
So what do we do ?, Well a school of thought is to not bet in play. Bet only prior to the event getting under way. That may be a safe option but is an easy way out and defeats the challenge of in play trading. Another option is to bet in play only early on in the event and try to green up or distribute loss and stop betting. It appears the longer the event goes on generally the thinner the market becomes.
I don't see a solution to this, and mentioning this to help other newbies like myself. I'm sure the geniuses  on here have worked this out long ago and have adjusted their betting methods to avoid thin markets. Of course this has nothing to do with MFP but we are all at the mercy of betting exchanges.
I'm on a diet and becoming thinner, however the markets are not becoming fatter :)
If any one has any comments I'd love to hear them and/or some gems the pro's care to share.
Thanks
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #1 on: 19 Jun 2014, 13:42 »
The premium charge is the most often quoted reason for liquidity drying up in many befair markets.  Those who used to seed the markets and make nice profits in the process have been stung by 60% rates of commission, which has driven many of them away as the margins on their betting have been massively eroded by the PC.

Less money in the markets means less punters attracted and the whole thing goes into a death spiral.  Couple this with Betfairs obsession with driving new punters to the sportsbook rather than the exchange, and that takes more money away from the eco system.  If you visit their website for the first time, the landing page is the sportsbook and you have to click on a link to the exchange.  The average punter just wants to put a bet on and is oblivious if he's on a sportsbook or the exchange so he just bets on the first page he gets to.

The sportbook generates far less revenue for Betfair than the exchange according to their latest results, but the current management continue to pour money into promoting this side of the business to the detriment of the exchange.  The one thing that made Betfair so successful and unique is being systematically eroded as the site continues to morph into a generic betting portal.


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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #2 on: 19 Jun 2014, 17:28 »
Hi Armani,
It would seem Betfair, which was a breath of fresh air as an exchange, has started down a path to becoming more of a bookmaker with an exchange on the side. I believe that some time ago an executive from Paddy Power joined Betfair and became involved with the marketing of Betfair products. The first thing he did was to shut down the seminars that Befair gave around the UK and Australia. In other words they stopped educating punters on the advantages of exchange betting. The writing was on the wall back then about two years or so ago. So yes, exchange betting is not their preferred medium of operation or so it appears.
I'd like to hear other views on this as my information is all hearsay
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #3 on: 20 Jun 2014, 14:32 »
during the early years their main marketing slogan was 'winners welcome', due to the fact that they made their money from taking a sensible 5% commission cut on those winnings.  Now that they charge 20% once lifetime winnings reach a certain threshold, and 60% at a higher threshold, they've chased off the people who used to put the most money into the markets.  Imagine any of your successful triggers with 60% taken out every time it won, but 100% of your losses staying in, and tell me if your system is still profitable!

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #4 on: 20 Jun 2014, 15:46 »
Hi
Regarding scalping markets for a few ticks, here are a couple of ideas. The triggers below are examples which can be adapted to your requirements.

Firstly your trigger should be able to detect if there is sufficient liquidity to cover both your entry and exit points before the entry is made, otherwise no trade. These small tick scalp trades should be over in a few seconds and your trigger should have emphasis on several fall-back exit options. e.g. fill or kill http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/miscelaneous-betting/matching-bets/ / green-up / scratch trade for zero PL / stop-loss.
 
If you do wish to trade illiquid markets why not become the marketmaker. Basically offer slightly better prices than the gap prices.  http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/bet-price-change/best-opposite-price/
If you get matched you will have a value bet and can afford to concede a little on the exit if needed.
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #5 on: 20 Jun 2014, 18:08 »
Hi armarni,
It would be ridiculous for anyone to be expected to lose 60% of their profits. Are there no regulatory laws in place to curb these bandit type tactics? Any idea what the max profit before the 20 and 60% take effect. I suppose it's in the my account area.
The corporate bookies mostly UK ones operating in Australia are soon to be regulated.
In an ideal and fair world exchange betting should be the only form of betting.
Thanks for your comments.
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #6 on: 20 Jun 2014, 19:54 »
Hi Mark,
Thanks for these triggers. I'll certainly test them out.
I keep trying but may well park the idea of in play betting.
There are very few options I haven't tried and it does appear
that smart algorithms have outsmarted us mere mortals.
I am not saying there isn't money to be made on tennis
and cricket during in play but I'd say the successful ones
are manual trading those in play markets.
thanks again.
R

My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: fat punters and thin markets
« Reply #7 on: 25 Jun 2014, 07:29 »
Hi Mark,
I will test these triggers this next week as been busy on other things
Cheers
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

 

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