Football Cash Generator (another view)

Hi,
in a standard Football Cash Generator we lay the draw covering the 0-0 score.
After the first goal we green (back the draw) hoping to have a profit as a final result.
We select matches with 0-0 more than 17, draw odds up to 3.8 and home and guest back prices not less than 2.2 

Another situation could appear.

Today 25/08/2012

Kawasaki - Nagoya
Initial draw odds 3.8
Initial 0-0 score odds 18

At 68' minute
Draw odds 2.9
0-0 score odds 3.4

In that situation if:
you green the 0-0 and
distributing loss of the draw

gives an important profit

It seems that after 60-70 minute the 0-0 score drops more than the draw.

I have noticed that in 5 matches previous week.

We must add this scenario to the standard football cash generator trigger


Regards,

Theodore

That's a very interesting observation.  It almost makes this strategy into the 'Holy Grail' of betting.  With this we don't need to worry about  what to do when the score is still a draw at that point in the match, just  trade out of both, to release profit.

of course at matches with 0-0 at 70 minute or more, if a goal is scored the draw back price go to the sky, and the profit is much more important.
So process with care my friend.

Regards,
Theodore

I tested this with your trade out suggestions and worked very well.   But this trigger remains far too risky due to the high liabilities generated against potential profit.  

I feel a much better strategy is to back the 0-0 FT score and lay the HT draw.  Adjust stakes to generate a small profit per game if the draw loses and break even or small profit by greening the 0-0 during the HT break, when the draw has won.  Much lower liabilities and successful if you select matches carefully.

You can make more profit by waiting until some minutes of the second half have passed, but, of course, you run an increasing risk of total loss if a goal is scored.

Hi,
it seems that profitability derives also early in the match from the CS market, as 0-0 moves down faster that draw odds (if 0-0 is especially high in the pregame)

Today 7/10/2012

Start v Mjondalen

Initial Values
CS 0-0: 32
Draw: 5.8

at 20' minute
CS 0-0: 17.5
Draw: 5.1

It seems to be interesting!

I will watch it next week, in matches with high CS 0-0 odds

Regards,

Theodore

I cannot find out to calculate the bets between:

Initial Values
CS 0-0: 32
Draw: 5.8

at 20' minute
CS 0-0: 17.5
Draw: 5.1

Please help

Hi
This topic refers to this trigger:
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/miscelaneous-betting/soccer-correct-score-match/

Thanks MarkV 

Again coming back to this trigger, consider the following:
Favourite at Home (odds <1.80)
if 1-0 to the favourite in first halve, then green up with small profit.
If 0-0 at HT then green up 0-0 and distribute the loss on the draw (only possible with high 0-0 back odds to low lay the draw odds). Small profit again.
if 0-1 to the underdog, then apply the following:
lay the underdog for 75% of the lay the initial draw amount, and
back the draw for 50% of the lay the draw amount.
If 1-1 results, then green up (unless this happens after 70')
If the underdog wins, then liability on the draw is a lot less than what it was initially.

I am working on the trigger and will post it tomorrow, but any feedback welcome.

Also thought about using this trigger for lay the draw with back 1-1 for games where a goal is likely.

Hi!
And if the 1-1 comes after the 70'?
What is the move?

Miguel

I apologise in advance for this request, but my addled 60+yo brain took ages to become familiar with version 6 of MFpro, so please understand that version 7 will still take me months to digest.

I have looked at Football Cash Generator and I am interested in testing a few different scenarios to see if I can make it work to suit my own betting patterns.

I have noticed that there have been a few occasions where the greenup trigger did not happen after the first goal (for reasons already explained previously), but the game finished as a score draw with total loss of both back 0-0 and lay the draw bets.

I realise quite a few of you would already have tried this but because of my lack of knowledge of writing triggers in v7, I would like to add a stop/loss trigger at loss x% and after y mins since the start of the event. I envisage this "distribute loss" trigger would follow the greenup trigger.

Could one of you clever people be kind enough to provide me with this trigger please.

OR if it has already been provided in the forum, to point me to the explanation.

Thanks in advance,

bobh

Good morning bobh,
I also want to test this technique in a different way, I have had the collaboration of distinguished member Mcbee .
He adapted the trigger to my needs.

My knowledge in programming MF7 is very poor, however I want to learn from the best and this forum really spectacular and there are people willing to help.
I'll start testing the trigger today:

http://community.welldonesoft.com/general-discussion-12/lay-the-draw/

There has been no response to my request above for a spread the loss trigger.

So I can try a few things with this strategy on today's games, would someone be able to help within the next few hours please?

Thanks,

bobh

hi bobh
i have added a dist loss trigger and set it to 100% , so it should activate after 95 mins if the loss is equal or greater than your lay stake.
alter the variable    msto  to whatever time you want
alter the 100% in the trigger to whatever you want.
NOT TESTED SO USE TEST MODE ONLY

mcbee

You are a legend, McBee.

Always in test mode before I release the moths from my wallet, never fear.

An Aussie thank you a million times.

bobh