Football Holy Grail?

Is this the Holy Grail for football?

1. Back 0-0 in FT correct score market
2. Lay Draw in HT market
3. Back 1-1 in HT correct score market.
4. If 0-0 at HT, green up on FT correct score.

Obviously you need to carefully select matches that have beneficial odds.  I have been able to make a decent profit if the HT draw loses, a smaller profit if 0-0 at HT and stake recovery or slight loss if the match is 1-1 at HT.  The only chance of a total loss, is if the HT result ends 2-2, 3-3 etc which is very rare in the matches I select.

Any comments?

well, I think that you need to be spot on weighing in your stakes for each market..is ltd at HT your primary target and the other markets meant as cover for your liability on that one?

cheers

Yes HT draw is the primary market.   It gives more profit if you ignore the 1-1 HT back, but in most selected matches the odds for this are about 11.0, so I am not sacrificing too much profit to gain an additional saver bet.  A lot of extra profit is gained if 0-0 at HT and can you wait some minutes of the second half before greening.

Careful staking is obviously essential in any strategies of this type as the football markets are usually so efficient.

Sounds like a decent strat Rubold. I believe that if odds of 11 for the 1-1, you are targetting games with a pretty solid favouriite which again also should mean that the 0-0 odds are decent.Good luck with your strat..

cheers

1. Back 0-0 in FT correct score market
2. Lay Draw in HT market
3. Back 1-1 in HT correct score market.
4. If 0-0 at HT, green up on FT correct score.

One of bets 2 and 3 is guaranteed to lose and any winnings for the match must take into account the amount lost between these bets.

If one balances these two bets by adjusting the stakes on each, it is possible to make bets which will result in no loss between them. The overall strategy is then reduced to backing 0 - 0 at full time. My experience of the correct score markets is that there is little money to be made by greening at half time using this score. Sometimes, the price hardly moves more than a couple of ticks. Given the fact that the initial markets were formed by opinions which placed 0 - 0 at big odds against, it is even more likely that there will be little movement in the price. It's something like what happens in "laying the draw" when the underdog scores first. Virtually no movement as general opinion is that the favourite will recover.

So, no Grail, sorry, but a good try.

I'm not sure what you mean by no movement in the FT 0-0 odds.  If still 0-0 at HT then you can green for a good return, although this will not always cover the 2 losing bets in every match.

Examples from todays Europa League:

Back Heerenveen v Molde  £2 @ 19.00
Lay   at HT: £6.79 @ 5.60

Back Sparta Prague v Feyenoord £2 @ 12.0
Lay at HT:  £6.23 @ 3.85

Rubold, when your ltd at HT wins, how many percent ( approximately) do you gain then of your total outlay on all 3 markets?

cheers

Profit can be made on the lay HTD, but the problem is having all the odds in your favour and this is what I'm trying to convert into trigger formulas at present, so that I only select matches where profit is achievable.

I'll post up a few examples after the weekend, where I will have many more matches to try and find the optimum odds configuration.

I realise the profit will be minimal, but I had some amazing drops in the 0-0 FT price which boosted profits during testing.    I really just posted this as a discussion starter, as we all  know that a Football Grail can't be found, but it might be possible to get close enough with a combination of bets.

The efficiency of the markets makes it impossible to find the "Holy Grail" but I agree totally that there are opportunities on occasion.

Laying the draw has been discussed on many forums and is not the answer, especially if a form of "insurance" is backed.

My own technical expertise in using MFP is very low in comparison to the regular posters on here. I do, however, know my markets, especially horse racing and football.

One of my ideas for making money is to lay Over 2.5 goals during the first five/ten minutes of a game, and to cover a number of such games at the same time. Those markets which show a profit should be "greened". The majority of games do not have goals scored in the first five/ten minutes and this is the "edge" that might provide us with profits. Additionally, a goal scored in a game in that timeframe is not catastrophic.

I have many ideas relating to trading strategies which have evolved over many years of thinking. My main drawback is my lack of knowledge in using MFP to advantage.

Now would be the right time to repeat a request I have made a couple of times before. Are there any other users of MFP in South Wales, please ? I'd be delighted to meet you.

I should think Italian & French matches would be good for your over 2.5 strategy, although prices might be too high for a comfortable lay.

If you need triggers writing for any strategies I would be happy to help via email/PM.

Yes, the French games are particularly boring. They show them sometimes on ESPN. As you say, however, the markets usually reflect this and lay prices are usually too high.

Thank you for your kind offer. I will take you up on it and write in the next week or so. At present, I am preparing for my wife's visit to her family in Thailand so very busy now, but three whole weeks of freedom to do what I want in two weeks time !

My strategies in horse racing are nearly all in-running. Pre-race trading is not as easy as it once was due to there being more traders , more bots, and market manipulation. These factors are reduced when a race is being run as the inherent uncertainties of racing make it a more level playing field.

I am using MF for many years trying to find the 'holy grail' also... My 'expertise' is on Football Markets and i have tested this strategy and many variations on this idea. So here some conclusions/thoughts/points from my experience:

My philosophy:

1) There is no 'holy grail' as might someone think, for example a perfect strategy that never loose and makes profits daily... For me 'Holy Grail' is an automated strategy that has for example 80 scenarios to win, 10 scenarios to make even(no win no loss) and 10 scenarios to loose.

2)I believe that a variation of 'Lay The Draw' might be a great start for your search for the 'holy grail'.

About this strategy from my tests:

1) The HT markets have very bad money volume and that means that prices often dont go as expected

2) I believe the key to success  is to wait a few minutes in 2nd Half(if still 0-0) before greening up.

3) Also i tried a good 'insurance' for the 2nd half 5-10 minutes of wait before greening a Lay bet against Over 1.5.

Again my conclusion was that this good strategy cant perform well in HT markets so i moved it in a variation only in FT markets.

Also i want to share some great tips i found during my research and testing that i hope they can lead me to my 'Holy Grail' really soon.

1) In football markets time is very important to the prices so think again if you bet before kick off or in play.

2) On all bets(and especially insurance) some times it is much better to prefer partially betting inplay. For example if 0-0 is my insurance and want to bet 2$ on it i prefer to break this bet in parts and bet inplay. Also this is very helpful when you want to lay a maket that is going down as time passes.

3) And the most important tip i found that changed totally my perspective on trading is that despites Greening sounds like a perfect situation many times is a waste of winnings. Sometimes is better to risk a winning situtation(or part of winnings) than greening for a small profit.

Sorry for the long text but honestly i have big experience on these kind of strategies.

Cheers