hi
you said.
The other angle i guess is that the mud lovers are being heavily punted which is also skewing the results, but does not explain the problem of 3 consecutive months of losses on my non hc lay returns versus consecutive 18 months of profit.
with the above you must be using some odds filters, so what the average odds were before 3 months could be different, thus before you would be picking say the true 3 rd fav, but with the odds movement you are maybe picking the true 2nd fav.
every month you must check the difference and alter the odds/fav to suit.
you said
The market is made up of prices generated by punters and bots.
this i believe is not true.
if it were true, then there would be a difference between bookies odds and betfair odds.
BUT due to many punters cashing in on this in past times, betfair now start there markets when the prices are with a few ticks of the main street bookies.
if you look at many markets you will see lay odds JUMP from ALL been 20.00 (greyhound) to a tick or 2 difference from the main bookies.
this cannot be betfair punter's just placing bets all of a sudden at prices near to the main bookies prices, we are all after the BEST prices posible, so how come all punters place first bets close to bookie prices, we all try to get a better price by asking for x ticks better.
mcbee