Greyhound Question

mcbee, from BetFair (rss).
So probably it's seasonal thing.

hi
that is interesting, because there is a system that uses the 5th trap, but for extra safe betting the 6th trap should be less odds.
the method is that the 5th trap is a losing trap and if there is a faster dog in the 6th then it gives more chances for the 5th trap to lose.
what happens is generaly 1 to 3 trap hit the first bend slightly quicker than the 4 to 6 traps, because of the track layouts.
now if the 6 trap is quicker than the 5 trap it blocks the 5 trap as it travels across to the first bend, the only time that the 5 trap wins, is when it gets off faster than the other traps.
so it's split time has to be a lot faster than the others.

any chance of using the zip to save the results and putting the results in you next post.

thanks
mcbee

any chance of using the zip to save the results and putting the results in you next post.

Sent privately 

hi betfair winner
that is interesting,a few years ago i ran a greyhound system that produce lots of profit, then all of a sudden it failed (after a betfair update).
when i looked back i found that the average price had moved up from (3.3 to 4.4) to (3.5 to 4.6) and this was enough to throw my system out of sync.
this happens every time they do an update.it is the same as the lottery machine, they use a different one every time so that nobody can find an edge with one machine.
same with handicapping, if they did the same rules month in month out, we would find an edge, it would be to easy for us.
 

Thanks for that contribution and clarifying MCbee but i am still unsure as to how Betfair have any control over the actual prices that we take through our bots.  The line every time they do an update is interesting suggesting wholesale changes to something but what exactly and when are these updates?

The market is made up of prices generated by punters and bots. My bot will only take a price once the threshold is reached (or breached). On checking the last month (give or take a pip) the prices i am getting relative to the forecast is pretty much identical. But the BSP's are higher hence the markets i am playing in are forced up with big moves on favourites etc the likes of which we have not seen in a while.

I guess this is where my posting three years ago could be playing out in that where bots are driving the markets rather punter sentiment, we are getting some false BSP's
The other angle i guess is that the mud lovers are being heavily punted which is also skewing the results, but does not explain the problem of 3 consecutive months of losses on my non hc lay  returns versus consecutive 18 months of profit.

The betdaq issue is another problem born from no liquidity i guess.

hi
you said.
The other angle i guess is that the mud lovers are being heavily punted which is also skewing the results, but does not explain the problem of 3 consecutive months of losses on my non hc lay  returns versus consecutive 18 months of profit.

with the above you must be using some odds filters, so what the average odds were before 3 months could be different, thus before you would be picking say the true 3 rd fav, but with the odds movement you are maybe picking the true 2nd fav.
every month you must check the difference and alter the odds/fav to suit.
you said
The market is made up of prices generated by punters and bots.
this i believe is not true.
if it were true, then there would be a difference between bookies odds and betfair odds.
BUT due to many punters cashing in on this in past times, betfair now start there markets when the prices are with a few ticks of the main street bookies.
if you look at many markets you will see lay odds JUMP from ALL been 20.00 (greyhound) to a tick or 2 difference from the main bookies.
this cannot be betfair punter's just placing bets all of a sudden at prices near to the main bookies prices, we are all after the BEST prices posible, so how come all punters place first bets close to bookie prices, we all try to get a better price by asking for x ticks better.

mcbee

hi
at the moment i have been lay betting the fav in place markets, you would be surprised at how many do not get in the first 2 and the lay odds are a lot less.
i have checked a few of the old results for mals system and there are lot again that did not finnish in the first 2 in place markets, again the odds are a lot less.
you have got me working on mals system again, but in place markets, less odds better recovery.

mcbee

Hi
Is there enough matched in the place markets to achieve a value lay bet?  Whenever I look at them there is always a big spread between back and lay prices and only a few hundred £ matched   I suppose you would need to offer a better price than the current back price, in the middle of the spread. 

hi
yes, i have my trigger with the formula to lay at the lay price if back/lay are within 3 ticks, else offer a lay bet of back+10 ticks.
i only have a few that do not get matched.
but you need a good staking plan, because upto now there have been 11 lay losses in a row.
i go for 20% betting bank profit and stop.

mcbee

Hi mcbee

Are you still lay betting in the place markets?  If so, what sort of strike rate do you achieve?  I tried laying the favourite 1 sec before start, if there was at least £400 market volume and offered a price 3 ticks above the current back price and got at least 50% of selections matched, usually more - thought I was onto something!  I had some good days, but like most greyhound betting, these were followed by a couple of bad days.  Would I need to get a higher %age matched, as I might just be hitting the better dogs?

hi
no i don't use it now.
i noticed that the lay prices were getting to far away from the back prices, so the edge has gone.
it might be worth looking at after sept/oct, then the flat horse bettors might switch back to the dogs giving better prices.

mcbee