Author Topic: Lay the Underdog  (Read 2936 times)

Tags:
  • All members
  • Posts: 15
  • Karma: +0/-0
Lay the Underdog
« on: Sun, 07 September, 2014, 11:21 »
I would like to develop the following trigger:
Lay the Underdog in Soccer games when the Favourite is a goal down while playing at home (score at 0-1 only, not 1-2 etc) in the first half only. Then green up when the Favourite equalizes at any time. If the Underdog wins, then have loss recoupment (like the trigger:"Laying on 0-0 in Half Time Score, with conditions and loss recoupment"). At no stage should there be more than 1 game with a lay bet, otherwise the loss recoupment becomes too difficult.

Rules:
* Market = Match Odds
* Match Volume >= 2000 (Delete any markets that do not satisfy this requirement, say 1 minute before the off)
* Favourite plays at Home only (Favourite = odds 2.0 or less). Delete any markets that do not satisfy this requirement, say 1 minute before the off)
* If the Favourite makes it 1-0, then delete this market.
* Delete any markets if 0-0 at HT
* If the Underdog makes it 0-1 in the first half, then lay the Underdog at odds of 4.0 or less, but wait 120 seconds after suspension to get a better price.
* if the Favourite equalizes at any time, e.g. score becomes 1-1 (or 2-2, 3-3, etc) then green up, waiting 120 seconds after suspension, to get the best price.
* if the underdog goes on to win the game, then wait for the next qualifying game with loss recoupment.
* Because multiple matches that meet all of the conditions above are being monitored, as soon as 1 game qualifies and a lay is placed on the Underdog, then other games that are in progress should not be able to place a lay bet on the underdog when 0-1. I only want 1 game to be bet on at any time and not multiple games at the same time.
* So if the Favourite equalizes, then green up and we can straight away move to the next game that qualifies. But if the Underdog is winning and no green up is possible, then we will have to wait until the end of the game. That game is then followed up by the next game that qualifies and a lay bet with loss recoupment is then placed.
* Usually what happens is the following:
Starting odds: 1.80 / 3.50 / 6.00
0-1 score odds: 3.50 / 3.40 / 2.00
1-1 score odds 2.00 / 3.20 / 5.50
now the loss recoupment can be tricky given that at 1-1 we green up the Underdog at 5.5, having layed at 2.00 (the profit on average is 0.46 points). So to recover -1 points if the underdog wins for the next game implies a higher stake. Not sure what this stake would be.

Hope this all makes sense
Edward

  • Moderator
  • Posts: 4061
  • Karma: +237/-9
  • Gender: Male
*
Re: Lay the Underdog
« Reply #1 on: Sun, 07 September, 2014, 15:33 »
hi
i am working on your trigger now.

mcbee
Please read the following  disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • Moderator
  • Posts: 4061
  • Karma: +237/-9
  • Gender: Male
*
Re: Lay the Underdog
« Reply #2 on: Thu, 11 September, 2014, 07:44 »
hi
here is your trigger, long time testing due to waiting for each of the conditions and only testing 1 match until the current one is completed.
in the constants you can set
bet amount
Minimum market matched volume
Minutes before the off to delete unwanted markets
Favourite's maximum back price
Maximum lay price to take and place
Maximum liability for lay bet

i have included a maximum liability so as to protect your bank a little.

please use test mode until you are happy with your settings

mcbee

download the trigger below
Please read the following  disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

  • All members
  • Posts: 15
  • Karma: +0/-0
Re: Lay the Underdog
« Reply #3 on: Thu, 11 September, 2014, 18:46 »
Thanks mcbee,

The trigger is very neatly and efficiently written. This will greatly help my trigger writing as my attempt at the same trigger was very messy. This method has worked quite well for me, but as always match selection is crucial.

Thanks again.