Author Topic: Laying at 50-1 before the off  (Read 7924 times)

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #15 on: 08 Jan 2015, 20:04 »
Sorry i should of added that i changed the lay odds to 190-1 in the trigger from 250-1

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #16 on: 08 Jan 2015, 22:41 »
hi,
Hope you dont mind me butting in

In the laying trigger for before the off, change the command to match at SP.

In the distribute loss trigger, change the command from once every few seconds to Once per selection.

nevermind, i did it for you on the attached amended

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #17 on: 09 Jan 2015, 07:41 »
Thanks Larp

An alternative, Version 4 is attached.

I thought there was a condition in the back trigger to say only try to repeat the back if the amount of previous backs matched is zero.  By the time a selection that last trading at 100+ is now trading under 10 things are moving very fast so the first back may not be matched - that is why I did not originally choose "once per selection" for the back.

That is definitely in V4.  I agree that choosing to lay all those above your threshold value "at SP" is more likely to get them matched (albeit that you cannot guarantee the odds) but it will be in the right vicinity normally.  Remember some races can be dramatically delayed and prices can wander between the bet being placed and the start - but that is unlikely to dramatically affect the outcome of this strategy.

I would watch the back bet carefully.  When doing things manually your brain subconsciously takes in a lot of data so whilst you may be watching for odds of 10 you may choose not to hedge (perhaps, for example, if the front runner is already at 1.03).  The trigger does not apply these discretionary checks, which is both the strength and weakness of automating a strategy.  It takes out the emotion - but, within the constraints of the API and the internet etc - applies the constraints rigorously in every situation.

Such further conditions can be added to the trigger if you can think of any that you would want to apply.

Good luck again and thanks for being patient - I hope it works better today.


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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #18 on: 09 Jan 2015, 07:47 »
If you are into stats you can check the theoretical outcome of this strategy from the Betfair daily files of past data,  for those with an SP greater than [190] and an in play traded value of less than [10].

What you cannot check is those that went over [100] in play from their stats because you cannot tell whether it hit 100 then went to 10, or went to 10 then traded at over 100 - as most non winners will eventually do in the end.

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #19 on: 09 Jan 2015, 14:15 »
How do i access Betfair's historical data and read what the odds etc where of each horse?

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #20 on: 09 Jan 2015, 16:29 »
Do you have a value on those lay-bets? Or are you just riding on the positive side of the variance?

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #21 on: 09 Jan 2015, 18:46 »
Hi Tupp.
Not sure who your message was for but that's all a foreign language to me?

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #22 on: 09 Jan 2015, 18:59 »
John - I have sent you a pm.

How has it gone today?

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Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #23 on: 10 Jan 2015, 11:32 »
V5 attached as described in private message.

Good luck




 

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