Author Topic: Laying at 50-1 before the off  (Read 7925 times)

Tags:
  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Laying at 50-1 before the off
« on: 05 Jan 2015, 20:27 »
Could somebody point me in the direction of a trigger that will lay a horse at 250-1 or above before the off and also lay a horse once it gets to 100-1 in running.Also would it then be possible to back one of the layed horses if it came back to lets say 10-1 and distribute any losses?
Somebody did send me half this trigger but i lost it somehow when i got a new computer.
Many thanks
John.

  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #1 on: 06 Jan 2015, 07:16 »
Before someone writes this I think they would need some more detail:

Are all lay stakes level eg say £2 ?
The horse layed at 250:1, would this be layed again if it got to 100 in play?
Do you want to lay all horses in the race at 250 and "keep" the bets unmatched when it goes in play, or only lay those with a lay price of 250 before the start?
What determines the 10:1 in play - back price?  lay price? or last traded?

Knowing those things its a pretty simple trigger.

Obviously it looks pretty risky.  You need a bank of £500 to lay at 250 for £2 and for every one that gets backed at 10 in play you lose £48.  So if that is more than one in 25.3  it will lose money in the long term (after commission).

  • Guest
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #2 on: 06 Jan 2015, 09:25 »
Hi John,

If you go back through your old posts, by clicking on your profile name and selecting see old posts, you will find your previous requests and the solutions to this query. Having done just that myself, I located the answers: the consensus being its very risky,hard to get matched(so its hard to test run), inrunning and if stop-loss misses then trouble awaits.

But post up exact requirements as per alfaman, lets see if we can get you matched :)

Regards,
Larp

  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #3 on: 06 Jan 2015, 21:32 »
All lay bets will be the same ie £2.
Lay all horses above 250-1 before the off but not again at 100-1.
Lay all horses that get to 100-1 in running that haven't been layed before the off.
I then thought if a horse that had already been layed gets back into the race and looks like winning i could back it to try and limit my losses?
I have a large bank of money so laying at such high odds is not a problem,i do it all the time manually ,watching the race and distributing my losses if need be,i just wanted to try and automate it.
Hope this is a bit more informative.

  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #4 on: 06 Jan 2015, 21:56 »
I can fiddle around with the back part of the bet so that only one horse gets backed if it looks like its going to win,say maybe change 10-1 to 3-1.

  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #5 on: 07 Jan 2015, 07:41 »
Try this but please check it and test it first, carefully, as I have not, and be sure you understand the risk (in case others download it too).

It should:

Lay at [0.1] mins (variable) before the race if the lay price is >= [250] (variable)
Set In play refresh to [0.5] secs when inplay (variable)
Lay at [100] (variable) after [0.1] mins (variable) after the race start if the last traded price is >= [100], but only if there is no lay money matched on the selection, leaving the unmatched bet available to get matched later.

Distribute the loss with a back at the [10] (variable), if there is lay money matched on a selection, and the back price is [10] or less.

The risk is that if the back price is <10 (instantaneously) but the last traded price is say 30, it will still back at 10 and as your money will be the highest price someone will take it so you may be hedging unnecessarily.  You could protect by only hedging if the last traded price is less than say 15 so I have added that in as a variable as well.

The main risk is that if a selection was trading at 100+ and is now <10 it is a serious contender so the price may fall very rapidly.  The back at 10 could get left unmatched.  If you were to back at back_price instead of the fixed 10, it could be 2 for example and the back stake would be enormous to distribute the loss.  You could delete the top condition in the back trigger and just back at 10, using the last traded price [15] as an early warning of impending doom, making your offer at 10 more likely to get matched.

Good luck and let me know how it goes - but please do not blame me for any problems!

(Also, if anyone else spots errors in the trigger please let me know.)

  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #6 on: 07 Jan 2015, 08:24 »
Thank you,i will test it properly.
Will it lay any horse in running at 100-1 or above ,or just at 100-1,i would like it to do 100-1 or above?

  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #7 on: 07 Jan 2015, 08:50 »
Should lay 100 or over I think, I cannot check until tonight but it should be reasonably clear to see from the expressions in the conditions.

  • Guest
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #8 on: 07 Jan 2015, 09:56 »
Hi

Alfaman, good trigger. tried it on Timemachine. lays lots of horses at 100 to 1. However, it wouldn't stoploss because of an error in the price calculation. Not sure if TM calculates the average price. see attached

Larp


  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #9 on: 07 Jan 2015, 18:15 »
Thanks Larp,

I knew I was going too quickly this morning ( and late for work as a consequence - ooops) but that "bm_backavp" should of course be "bm_layavp" !!

Apologies, V2 attached.

 johnmlfc - it will lay anything in-play that has a last traded price of over 100, but will lay at a price of 100  - if that makes sense.  This may of may not get matched in play.


  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #10 on: 07 Jan 2015, 21:34 »
Tested today and it seemed to lay lots of horses at 50,70,90-1 even one at 26-1.It did also lay plenty of 250-1.
What its not doing is laying horses before the off at anything above 250-1,i want it to lay all horses before the off at 250-1 or bigger.
I will try version two tomorrow.

  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #11 on: 07 Jan 2015, 22:47 »
Hi johnmlfc

Sorry, I did not realise you want all at 250 AND above - although you did say that above. So you are willing to lay at 1000 then ?

If it sees a horse in play at lay price > 100 and lays at 100, you will get a "better" (read lower) price that if someone is willing to back it for lower - this is how Betfair works.  That is perhaps why you are seeing 26, 50, 70, 90.  If you lay at 100 and the lay price is 150 it will not get matched at first but if it then steams to a lay price of say 70 the lay bet will get matched.

Do you want to lay all those that go to a lay price of over 100 in play specifically at a price of 100,  or at any price (such as 1000) like you do before the off?

I will attach V3 which lays at any price before and in play.  Verrry Risky though.

Good luck.


  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #12 on: 08 Jan 2015, 08:44 »
Thanks Alfaman.
I frequently lay horses at 500,600,1000-1 if i'm watching live racing so that's not a problem.
I now get why its matching at lower that 100-1,thanks,i guess i can play around with the 100-1, say increase to 150-1 and see what gets matched and keep increasing till i no longer get 26,50,60-1 etc.
Also when i tested  the trigger yesterday it layed a horse at 250-1 which then went on to win the race,how do i tell if a the trigger attempted to back this horse when it got back to 10-1 because it either didn't or couldn't?
I'm not sure if the version 3 you have added is the right trigger,looks different?

  • Élite
  • Posts: 431
*
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #13 on: 08 Jan 2015, 18:26 »
Sorry you are right I attached the wrong trigger - we will get there in the end.

It would not have backed yesterday as there was an error in the amount term which Larp spotted - hopefully corrected in the right V3 attached.

You are a brave man!

Let me know how this one goes.

  • All members
  • Posts: 84
Re: Laying at 50-1 before the off
« Reply #14 on: 08 Jan 2015, 20:01 »
Tested version 2 today.
I know you have now done a third version but here are the results of v2.
Still only laying horses at 190-1 which tells me its not laying all horses at 190-1 and above before the off.
In one race it layed a horse , £2 at 190-1 = £2 profit
It also backed the same horse,£38 at 10-1 = £38 loss
leaving £36 overall loss.

In another race it layed a horse,£2 at 190-1 = £2 profit
It also backed the same horse at £38 at 13.50-1=£38 loss
It then backed the same horse again at £38 at 16-1 =£38 loss
Leaving £76 loss overall

Not sure if these are strange results or not,will try v3 tomorrow.
I think maybe trying to back the previously layed horse is causing problems,maybe i could try a trigger that just lays any horse before the off at 190-1 or above and then lay all horses that get to 190-1 in running?

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE