Author Topic: Lets exchange ideas!  (Read 10359 times)

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #15 on: 23 Mar 2015, 23:43 »
Here's my trigger.
It places up to 3 Lay bets on the fav. in win markets and tries to greenup after every Lay bet.
Stop loss part: Spread the losses after 90% of the race. Why? Because if the price kept falling down all the time to the end - he should be the winner. If he wins, we dont lose anything. Let me know if you have ideas for better stop loss system.

Let me know if you have ideas in general.

You guys can steal the "time-to-end" part cause it is reworked and it is now usable.

cheers ;D

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #16 on: 24 Mar 2015, 07:43 »
You seem to be a fast learner, have you been working with MFP before?

I don't have the time, right now, to try your trigger but tell us how you are progressing - keep up the good work!

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #17 on: 24 Mar 2015, 10:11 »
You seem to be a fast learner, have you been working with MFP before?

I don't have the time, right now, to try your trigger but tell us how you are progressing - keep up the good work!

I havent, but Im a programmer. Ive got the way of thinking :D
Thanks for your support! Appreciate it.

Just found out I need a new stop-loss system. The 'time to end' is not 100% reliable - it works but sometimes gives wrong RaceTime. I need to think more :D

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #18 on: 24 Mar 2015, 18:54 »
Just found out I need a new stop-loss system. The 'time to end' is not 100% reliable - it works but sometimes gives wrong RaceTime. I need to think more :D

What is not 100% reliable? You spread the losses after 90% of the race, could that be "too close" to the end?

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #19 on: 24 Mar 2015, 19:01 »
What is not 100% reliable? You spread the losses after 90% of the race, could that be "too close" to the end?

The module "time to end" is not reliable. It doesnt calculate the race time correctly every time. I need second stop loss trigger.

How to get the price of my last matched Lay Bet in MF?

Thanks!

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #20 on: 24 Mar 2015, 19:13 »
bm_layp?

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #21 on: 24 Mar 2015, 19:28 »
bm_layp?
Thank you.
Still working on the stop loss..it seems hard.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #22 on: 24 Mar 2015, 19:47 »
Still working on the stop loss..it seems hard.

What do you think of reducing the spread loss time from  90% to 75% ?

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #23 on: 24 Mar 2015, 20:57 »
What is not 100% reliable? You spread the losses after 90% of the race, could that be "too close" to the end?

'Evens' in horse race lingo is about 6secs/100m. So removing the outliers of <1100m and >3200m things usually start moving with 600m to go or maybe 800m in longer races. I mean thats when the horses are asked to sprint and finish off.

Try the condition : Minutes since the off is greater than (market_length-800)/600*.6
Where 800 can be your stop-loss distance from the end. Maybe 600m for shorter races.

Improvise Adapt Overcome

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #24 on: 24 Mar 2015, 21:35 »
'Evens' in horse race lingo is about 6secs/100m. So removing the outliers of <1100m and >3200m things usually start moving with 600m to go or maybe 800m in longer races. I mean thats when the horses are asked to sprint and finish off.

Try the condition : Minutes since the off is greater than (market_length-800)/600*.6
Where 800 can be your stop-loss distance from the end. Maybe 600m for shorter races.



Are you sure that this is the right formula:
(market_length-800)/600*.6


You said 6sec/100m which is 16.66m/s =>
formula should be: (market_length-800)/16.66/60 in seconds
16.66 should be the speed cause we need time which is S/V (from S=V*T)
or not?

I was able to calculate the average speed of the favourite for different race distances.

Since "minutes since the off" doesnt work when the market doesnt support In-Play, I created global variable "x" with value "(now_time-event_start)/0.00001157"
and then
Spead Loss if "x" is greater than (market_length-800)/HorseSpeed

Thanks for the idea. Lets see what happens :)




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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #25 on: 25 Mar 2015, 07:46 »
Since "minutes since the off" doesnt work when the market doesnt support In-Play, I created global variable "x" with value "(now_time-event_start)/0.00001157"


Will that be working correctly? If the market will not go in-play how can you really know when the actual race start - don't they close the market a bit randomly (variation in time) before off for that markets?

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #26 on: 25 Mar 2015, 10:05 »
Are you sure that this is the right formula:
(market_length-800)/600*.6
You said 6sec/100m which is 16.66m/s =>
formula should be: (market_length-800)/16.66/60 in seconds
16.66 should be the speed cause we need time which is S/V (from S=V*T)
or not?
I was able to calculate the average speed of the favourite for different race distances.
Since "minutes since the off" doesnt work when the market doesnt support In-Play, I created global variable "x" with value "(now_time-event_start)/0.00001157"
and then
Spead Loss if "x" is greater than (market_length-800)/HorseSpeed
Thanks for the idea. Lets see what happens :)

I don't undertsand using this method in NON- INPLAY markets?

Anyway, the Condition's metric is 'Minutes' ...since the off. So .6 = 36secs

Example 2400m race: (2400-800)/600*.6= 1600/600*.6=1.6 minutes
The condtion was Minutes since the off is greater then 1.6m or (96secs/36secs * 600).
That equates to approx 1600m into the race at 'evens' or 800m before the end.
Get it? Its works, beleive and well especially in 1200-1600m events.

If not using 'Minutes since the off' - yes you need to use .00001157 as 1 sec.
Improvise Adapt Overcome

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #27 on: 25 Mar 2015, 12:03 »
Will that be working correctly? If the market will not go in-play how can you really know when the actual race start - don't they close the market a bit randomly (variation in time) before off for that markets?

I use event_start. They usually close the market later on. It stays "Iddle" after the start.

Thanks for the explanation, londolozi. I will use this for my stop-loss when market supports In-Play.

Let see what happens :)

How to set my triggers to start more often than once in 4 seconds?  :-\

Betfair doesnt allow bets under 2.00 right?

Uh, sorry for too many questions..I have 1 more:
I layed at 1.07 and stop-loss activated at 1.04 so it spread the losses but the horse lost and I lost a lot of money..is it better to "distribute loss between selections"? It doesnt seem to be true that if favourite odds are falling, he will win the race :/


edit: Trigger updated in the post above.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #28 on: 25 Mar 2015, 15:50 »
Backing at 1.05 is not a good idea.
I agree with Tupp, request a trigger and you can list your conditions and trading preferences. Then use Time Machine to test your strategies. That is the way to go. Also read back through all the queries, ideas and systems in the historical entries stored on the forum. That will save you a lot of time, effort and money. There is no point jumping in at the deep end when you are new to most of this. Start with your main idea and find out if that works.

You would need to test every trigger many many times and only then go "live" with it. There is no shortcut I am afraid. Reading through the examples and experiences of others is the only way.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #29 on: 25 Mar 2015, 20:01 »
You would need to test every trigger many many times and only then go "live" with it. There is no shortcut I am afraid. Reading through the examples and experiences of others is the only way.

That is so true!

Does anybody know how to use this:
marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/back-lay-dutching/dutching-chaser/

when betfair's minimum bet is 2.00?
I think the chaser is awesome, its killing it so far.

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE