Author Topic: Lets exchange ideas!  (Read 10361 times)

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Lets exchange ideas!
« on: 22 Mar 2015, 19:49 »
Hi everyone! Im new to the community and automated betting. Not so new in sports betting tho.
Im trying to modify "either-direction greenup" trigger. It works on horse racing Win markets only. The first bet is Lay and it waits for a greenup-back bet to be matched. If the price drops, it places another lay bet and tries to green up again (up to 3 lay bets). The problem comes when the price only goes down and never goes up to match the back bet. I added a loss distribution when 90% of the race is completed but it doesnt seem to make money in long term.

What do you think? What can I do if the price keeps going down and the green up back bet never gets matched? Any ideas?

Any ideas how to predict if the prices will only go down and never bet on that selection?

I want to make a trigger which gives me only 1 cent profit - but secure profit. Anyone knows that kind of trigger?

Also, a question for you guys:
If Lay matched volume is 10k and Back matched volume is 2k, does it mean that there's a higher chance for the price to go down?

Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!! Let me know if I can help with something.


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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #1 on: 23 Mar 2015, 07:04 »
Hi everyone! Im new to the community and automated betting. Not so new in sports betting tho.
Im trying to modify "either-direction greenup" trigger. It works on horse racing Win markets only. The first bet is Lay and it waits for a greenup-back bet to be matched. If the price drops, it places another lay bet and tries to green up again (up to 3 lay bets). The problem comes when the price only goes down and never goes up to match the back bet. I added a loss distribution when 90% of the race is completed but it doesnt seem to make money in long term.

Hi
The either direction greenup trigger was I think designed for trading a few ticks in pre-event, high liquidity markets. Inplay markets move very much quicker with big gaps between best lay and best back prices. If it is your intention to lay and greenup it would make sense to pick your selections for laying according to your own criteria.


What do you think? What can I do if the price keeps going down and the green up back bet never gets matched? Any ideas?

Perhaps improve your stoploss from 90% race run?
http://marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/stop-loss/



Any ideas how to predict if the prices will only go down and never bet on that selection?

That's the whole point of betting, the unpredictability of it, although you can make informed judgements. I think the more you learn about the market you are betting in, the better chance you have of making some profit.    

I want to make a trigger which gives me only 1 cent profit - but secure profit. Anyone knows that kind of trigger?

The example triggers are there to help you to learn and adapt them for your own systems. Test mode and Time Machine allow you to learn without losing real money.

Also, a question for you guys:
If Lay matched volume is 10k and Back matched volume is 2k, does it mean that there's a higher chance for the price to go down?

I think you are referring to unmatched volume WOM (weight of money). From the manual:
The Weight of Money indicator is calculated as follows:
WOM = back_volume / (back_volume + lay_volume)
where back_volume and lay_volume are amounts offered for the selection on the back and lay side respectively

so yes, if there is more money waiting on the lay side than on the back side (more backers than layers), it is likely the price will come in, but you need to be careful of false money.
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=betfair+wom+false  





Thanks a lot for sharing your thoughts!! Let me know if I can help with something.


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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #2 on: 23 Mar 2015, 11:34 »
Where's that reputation button?!

Thanks a lot for your answer. I hope it helps everyone!

Yes, my intention is to lay and green up. What are the best markets for that? In play I only keep my greenup bet unmatched hoping for it to get matched. Otherwise, a stop loss is activating at some point of the race. You said I need to improve that but I wanna give the price enough time to go up and match my green up bet. Any ideas?

About the volume - I refer to that trigger:
marketfeeder.co.uk/solutions/miscelaneous-betting/double-volume/

Not talking about unmatched, but matched volume. Is there a gigher chance that prices will go down if for example matched lay volume is 4x matched back volume?

What you shared about the unmatched volume is really interesting, I will read more about it.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #3 on: 23 Mar 2015, 11:55 »
Hi
The best markets to lay and green up in can really only be decided by yourself and will fit your own style of trading. Of course there is plenty to read and learn on here and from other sources as well, but it makes sense that you decide where you want to trade. MarketFeeder gives you the opportunity to try strategies and systems for yourself without risking real money.

The trigger regarding the volumes refers to unmatched money waiting to be matched. If there is an imbalance then you could expect some price movement. As far as I know matched volume in any market has to be equal. For every lay amount that is offered there is someone taking that and backing, so lay matched and back matched in a market has to be equal.
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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #4 on: 23 Mar 2015, 12:28 »

Is there a gigher chance that prices will go down if for example matched lay volume is 4x matched back volume?


If the supply and demand theory would be applicable then you would be right - the price would go down if the supply (lay unmatched volume) would be greater than demand (back unmatched volume).

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #5 on: 23 Mar 2015, 13:02 »
If the supply and demand theory would be applicable then you would be right - the price would go down if the supply (lay unmatched volume) would be greater than demand (back unmatched volume).

I hope you are talkin about trading on horse racing... not about real life economics? :)))

@MarkV, Thank you for all that information. You are right - matched back = matched lay. I didnt think before asking that question.
Thanks again!

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #6 on: 23 Mar 2015, 13:53 »
The amount currently being matched in the back column is called the back_amount. The opposing lay column immediatedly being matched in called the lay_amount. Whichever box empties first then the market will drop or rise into, maybe.Or maybe it will jump 2 boxes in the "wrong" direction.

 The maybe is the golden egg. :-[

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #7 on: 23 Mar 2015, 14:28 »
"Maybe" doesnt bother me. Im seeking profit in long term. If I have chance to win 60/40, maybe = 20, so My chance goes 50-60 / 40-50 which is in my favour again.

Let me ask you something. In which horse markets we can see this:
In the very end of the race all prices but the winners go to 100+ and the winners price goes to <1.10. Where I can find that? It doesnt happen on all markets! I think this can save all my lay bets - I will just back the winner at 1.05 with a lot of money in the very end of the race :D or just start some stop loss trigger.

Uh, how can I get the price of my matched Back bet in MF ?


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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #8 on: 23 Mar 2015, 14:39 »
save your time -buy a trigger!

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #9 on: 23 Mar 2015, 15:32 »
Any ideas why the attached trigger doesnt provide me "Race Time" in Win markets?

Or if you have "time to race end" trigger for win markets, can you share, please?

Thanks!

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #10 on: 23 Mar 2015, 18:41 »
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #11 on: 23 Mar 2015, 20:38 »
Backing at 1.05 is not a good idea.

I agree with Tupp, request a trigger and you can list your conditions and trading preferences. Then use Time Machine to test your strategies. That is the way to go. Also read back through all the queries, ideas and systems in the historical entries stored on the forum. That will save you a lot of time, effort and money. There is no point jumping in at the deep end when you are new to most of this. Start with your main idea and find out if that works.

 


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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #12 on: 23 Mar 2015, 20:51 »
Hi
I know what you are looking for but the problem is what you are suggesting cannot happen.
In a 100% efficient market the formula http://community.welldonesoft.com/triggered-betting-10/formulas/
for an opposite back price to a lay price is:
1/(lay_price -1)+1

If we apply that to your suggested lay price of 100+ for all selections except the favourite:
1/(100 -1)+1 = 1.01 fav price. 1.05 will not get matched.

Any possible variation in your favour will be cancelled out by Betfair's cross-matching bot. Here is some information from Betfair explaining better about cross-matching.
https://api.developer.betfair.com/services/webapps/docs/display/1smk3cen4v3lu3yomq5qye0ni/Virtual+Bets

and here is something to complement the last post by Larp:
https://www.google.co.uk/?gws_rd=ssl#q=betfair+1.01+losers

only trying to save you angst....
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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #13 on: 23 Mar 2015, 21:14 »
Hi
Perhaps try this variation:
http://community.welldonesoft.com/troubleshooting-8/race-end/

It worked when I changed "event_off" to "event_start" because not every market goes In Play. Some of them stay Iddle even after the start of the race.

Thanks for your advices about 1.05 odds. I will not use that strategy for stop loss.

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Re: Lets exchange ideas!
« Reply #14 on: 23 Mar 2015, 22:22 »
It worked when I changed "event_off" to "event_start" because not every market goes In Play. Some of them stay Iddle even after the start of the race.
Hi
In addition to what you have you could try the following condition to check if the market will be active inplay:
and markets In-Play mode is supported
Please read the following disclaimer with regards to the information you may request and obtain on our forum. This specifically concerns trigger files and various instructions as to how to implement a strategy.

 

Please note, BetFair is seems to be currently OFFLINE