Author Topic: Maximum losing streak  (Read 4500 times)

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Maximum losing streak
« on: 31 Jan 2015, 21:41 »
I have some thoughts about losing streaks and woundering if MFP-user would like to share some experience about the maximum losing streak every one have had ? (or remember). The averge odds of the losing streak and markets could be interesting (an estimate can be good enough for the average odds).

This might be interesting both from a statistical perspective , and as a player . Hopfully this can be helpful for all MFP users.

My maximum losing streak was 23 with an average odds of ~5 and mixed markets of Greyhound and Horse Race.

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #1 on: 31 Jan 2015, 22:08 »
Hi Tupp,
Of course losing streaks vary according to average odds of selections. With your 23 consecutive run of outs,
a) What were the average odds ?
b) How many selections in the sample ?
c) What is your strike rate ?
I commenced betting on horse racing 9-Jan and during this tiny sample here are the results.
Total number of bets  55
Average SP odds  5.5
Longest losing run  17
Strike rate  25.45%
As you can see I chalked up a long run of 17 outs from only 55 bets.
This was despite quite a high strike rate.
I'd be very wary of putting a limit on losing runs. I'd be even more wary of employing an increasing bet size strategy if that is what you had in mind.
I'd be interested to know your numbers.
R
 
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #2 on: 31 Jan 2015, 22:45 »
Yes you are right, racepro,  there should be no upper limit of a losing streak, in theory anyway! I suppose in reality we will stop betting if we would see a too large losing streak, so the figures (hopfully there will be manny contributors here) will probably be a bit skewed.

Right now I am at Gran Canaria with a poor internet connection so I will have a closer look to my figures about the strike rate and sample size later, but I would guess my losing streak of 23 is from a sample size of ~1000 bets and avg.odds of ~5.


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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #3 on: 01 Feb 2015, 21:08 »
I use a recommended formula I found almost 20 years ago and it is very consistent. It has been used in finance (by my research) by traders and options dealers.
 
It gives a 50% chance of probability but it seems to be a 99% chance of occurrence
 
LOG(2/n) / LOG(1-s)

where n is number of races/events/games
where s is the strike as a percentage over 100.

In your example 55 wagers is a very low sample or period of trade. I try to get what the strike would be over 1000. (when researching markets I have +5000 before i go in).

There are 2 issues with your example. You stated the strike rate is 25.45% then you say the average odds are 5.5 (18.18% sr)
So which one is it?

Efficient market theory says the strike rate of an expected outcome will equal its rate of return. So in perfect markets with no abnormal information (drugs, corruption, illegal play, dodgy referees) a $2.0 chance will win 50% of the time yet still experience a run of 9 losing events. This occurs in very efficient markets like EPL.

In your example I would be using 18.18% as my strike rate, as this is your rate of return. As chance of outcome diminish, the efficiency also diminishes where say a $50 chance only wins 1.8 times in every 100, not twice.

Therefore in 1000 races your run of outs will be approximately 31. In 55 the ROO is 17, in 200 it is 23. Favorite punters will incur a ROO of over 20 (in >3500 races), yet few plan for it.   

The next question is money management, how much of your bank do your risk per selection/event without tanking? 
Improvise Adapt Overcome

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #4 on: 02 Feb 2015, 00:29 »
londolozi what is your longest losing strike you can remember you have had for a certain strategy and what was the average odds for that strategy? What is your persenal experience.

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #5 on: 02 Feb 2015, 01:57 »
 
It gives a 50% chance of probability but it seems to be a 99% chance of occurrence
 


Is that you experince? Do I undertund you right if I say  - your experince is that 99 % of the time the losing run (losing streak) corresponds to the number where it should be 50% of the time in theory?

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #6 on: 02 Feb 2015, 04:03 »
"It gives a 50% chance of probability but it seems to be a 99% chance of occurrence"
That statement is not well written but what I was trying to convey was at a >=50% probability, something becomes more likely to occur than less likely.

The 99% I used in reference to;  where I have used this formula, in 99% of the time I will hit the expected outs.

I can remember 37 outs on the back side on a system and I have layed 6 x +$8 winners in a row, all losers for me of course because I was on the wrong side of the book. I'm not at home at the moment to did out the time and place but take my word, if it is expected to happen it will happen. "Be prepared" boy scout.

As you bet more with triggers and robots your number of wagers increases and you start to experience all the statistical swings and roundabouts that you read about or have calculated.

A a manual punter years ago I might have 10 bets on a Saturday, now I have 10 wagers every 30mins.   
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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #7 on: 03 Feb 2015, 10:14 »
If you are having problems finding value, you will see larger losing streaks than would be expected (average). With high analytic skills you will do better then what is expected from the odds ie. you have find value bets, odds*probability>1. Losing streaks can also be modeld with simple poisson statistics.

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Re: Maximum losing streak
« Reply #8 on: 03 Feb 2015, 10:47 »
Hi londolozi,

To answer your earlier question  re strike rate and average odds.
Winning strike rate  1 winner in every 3.929 races or (25.45%)
Average odds meaning average SP odds of each winner = 5.45/1
If the below is any help
The average odds of all selections in that tiny sample = 4.2/1
Hope that helps
Cheers
R
My grandma taught me not to run downstairs and never back odds on.

 

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